IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v195y2023ics0040162523004626.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Xi, Xi
  • Ren, Feifei
  • Yu, Lean
  • Yang, Jing

Abstract

Detecting and identifying the future trends of disruptive technologies is crucial for both government R&D strategic planning and firms' practices. To monitor disruptive technology trends and grasp technological opportunities, this paper proposes an analytical framework that integrates appropriate tech mining and semantic analysis methods based on HiDS (high-dimensional and sparse)-trait patent abstract data and then visualizes the technology evolutionary pathway. Deep Learning technology is selected as a case study. In this case, tech mining methods are applied to analyze the Deep Learning technology evolutionary pathway and then refine Deep Learning technological prospects. Results indicate that Deep Learning has formulated three progressive clusters during its evolution, which strongly demonstrate the high application value of Deep Learning technology. In addition, Deep Learning technology will continue to maintain a rapid development stage, and Deep Learning Accelerator, Transfer Learning, Image Classification, Object Detection, and Deep Reinforcement Learning are the key technical topics in the future. Our study contributes to the technology forecast field by suggesting a data-trait-driven framework for HiDS data, which introduces data-trait-driven idea into technological evolution detection and combines it with technology life cycle theory, and helps experts make more precise and in-depth tech mining in technological evolution research.

Suggested Citation

  • Xi, Xi & Ren, Feifei & Yu, Lean & Yang, Jing, 2023. "Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:195:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523004626
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122777
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523004626
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122777?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kyebambe, Moses Ntanda & Cheng, Ge & Huang, Yunqing & He, Chunhui & Zhang, Zhenyu, 2017. "Forecasting emerging technologies: A supervised learning approach through patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 236-244.
    2. Chen, Ssu-Han & Huang, Mu-Hsuan & Chen, Dar-Zen, 2012. "Identifying and visualizing technology evolution: A case study of smart grid technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 1099-1110.
    3. Junmo Kim & Juneseuk Shin, 2018. "Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1439-1459, September.
    4. Joseph P. Martino, 1980. "Technological Forecasting---An Overview," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 28-33, January.
    5. Lin, Deming & Liu, Wenbin & Guo, Yinxin & Meyer, Martin, 2021. "Using technological entropy to identify technology life cycle," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    6. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    7. Huang, Ying & Li, Ruinan & Zou, Fang & Jiang, Lidan & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Technology life cycle analysis: From the dynamic perspective of patent citation networks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    8. Renjie Hu & Wencong Ma & Weiqiang Lin & Xiude Chen & Zuchang Zhong & Chuhong Zeng & Zhipeng Tang, 2022. "Technology Topic Identification and Trend Prediction of New Energy Vehicle Using LDA Modeling," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-20, March.
    9. Wang, Chang & Geng, Hongjun & Sun, Rui & Song, Huiling, 2022. "Technological potential analysis and vacant technology forecasting in the graphene field based on the patent data mining," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    10. Gao, Lidan & Porter, Alan L. & Wang, Jing & Fang, Shu & Zhang, Xian & Ma, Tingting & Wang, Wenping & Huang, Lu, 2013. "Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 398-407.
    11. An, Hyoung Joon & Ahn, Sang-Jin, 2016. "Emerging technologies—beyond the chasm: Assessing technological forecasting and its implication for innovation management in Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 132-142.
    12. Kang, Jia-Ning & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liu, Lan-cui & Wang, Jin-Wei, 2021. "Observing technology reserves of carbon capture and storage via patent data: Paving the way for carbon neutral," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    13. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    14. Lizarralde, Rafael & Ganzarain, Jaione & Zubizarreta, Mikel, 2022. "Adaptation of the MIVES method for the strategic selection of new technologies at an R&D centre. Focus on the manufacturing sector," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    15. Wu, Zhanglan & Shao, Qinglong & Su, Yantao & Zhang, Dan, 2021. "A socio-technical transition path for new energy vehicles in China: A multi-level perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    16. Hopster, Jeroen, 2021. "What are socially disruptive technologies?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    17. Ki Hong Kim & Young Jae Han & Sugil Lee & Sung Won Cho & Chulung Lee, 2019. "Text Mining for Patent Analysis to Forecast Emerging Technologies in Wireless Power Transfer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-24, November.
    18. Adamuthe, Amol C. & Thampi, Gopakumaran T., 2019. "Technology forecasting: A case study of computational technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 181-189.
    19. Ahmad, Tanveer & Zhang, Dongdong, 2022. "A data-driven deep sequence-to-sequence long-short memory method along with a gated recurrent neural network for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PB).
    20. Wang, Tao & Zhu, Lixing, 2011. "Consistent tuning parameter selection in high dimensional sparse linear regression," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(7), pages 1141-1151, August.
    21. Birgitte Andersen, 1999. "The hunt for S-shaped growth paths in technological innovation: a patent study," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 487-526.
    22. Fattori, Michele & Pedrazzi, Giorgio & Turra, Roberta, 2003. "Text mining applied to patent mapping: a practical business case," World Patent Information, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 335-342, December.
    23. Chen, Hongshu & Zhang, Guangquan & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2017. "Topic-based technological forecasting based on patent data: A case study of Australian patents from 2000 to 2014," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 39-52.
    24. Zhang, Hao & Daim, Tugrul & Zhang, Yunqiu (Peggy), 2021. "Integrating patent analysis into technology roadmapping: A latent dirichlet allocation based technology assessment and roadmapping in the field of Blockchain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    25. Niemann, Helen & Moehrle, Martin G. & Frischkorn, Jonas, 2017. "Use of a new patent text-mining and visualization method for identifying patenting patterns over time: Concept, method and test application," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 210-220.
    26. Haupt, Reinhard & Kloyer, Martin & Lange, Marcus, 2007. "Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 387-398, April.
    27. Yuan, Xiaodong & Cai, Yuchen, 2021. "Forecasting the development trend of low emission vehicle technologies: Based on patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    28. Martin Kunc & Michael J. Mortenson & Richard Vidgen, 2018. "A computational literature review of the field of System Dynamics from 1974 to 2017," Journal of Simulation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 115-127, April.
    29. Hyunseok Park & Janghyeok Yoon & Kwangsoo Kim, 2013. "Identification and evaluation of corporations for merger and acquisition strategies using patent information and text mining," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 97(3), pages 883-909, December.
    30. Lee, Won Sang & Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Predicting the pattern of technology convergence using big-data technology on large-scale triadic patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 317-329.
    31. Triulzi, Giorgio & Alstott, Jeff & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    32. Palmié, Maximilian & Wincent, Joakim & Parida, Vinit & Caglar, Umur, 2020. "The evolution of the financial technology ecosystem: An introduction and agenda for future research on disruptive innovations in ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    33. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 432-449.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghaffari, Mohsen & Aliahmadi, Alireza & Khalkhali, Abolfazl & Zakery, Amir & Daim, Tugrul U. & Yalcin, Haydar, 2023. "Topic-based technology mapping using patent data analysis: A case study of vehicle tires," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    2. Huang, Ying & Li, Ruinan & Zou, Fang & Jiang, Lidan & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "Technology life cycle analysis: From the dynamic perspective of patent citation networks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    3. Serkan Altuntas & Zulfiye Erdogan & Turkay Dereli, 2020. "A clustering-based approach for the evaluation of candidate emerging technologies," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1157-1177, August.
    4. Choi, Hyunhong & Woo, JongRoul, 2022. "Investigating emerging hydrogen technology topics and comparing national level technological focus: Patent analysis using a structural topic model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    5. Lee, Changyong, 2021. "A review of data analytics in technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    6. Zhou, Yuan & Dong, Fang & Kong, Dejing & Liu, Yufei, 2019. "Unfolding the convergence process of scientific knowledge for the early identification of emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 205-220.
    7. Su, Yu-Shan & Huang, Hsini & Daim, Tugrul & Chien, Pan-Wei & Peng, Ru-Ling & Karaman Akgul, Arzu, 2023. "Assessing the technological trajectory of 5G-V2X autonomous driving inventions: Use of patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    8. Zhang, Hao & Daim, Tugrul & Zhang, Yunqiu (Peggy), 2021. "Integrating patent analysis into technology roadmapping: A latent dirichlet allocation based technology assessment and roadmapping in the field of Blockchain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Myoungjae Choi & Sun-Hi Yoo & Jongtaik Lee & Jeongsub Choi & Byunghoon Kim, 2022. "A modified gamma/Gompertz/NBD model for estimating technology lifetime," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(10), pages 5731-5751, October.
    10. Na Zhang & Chao Sun & Min Xu & Xuemei Wang & Jia Deng, 2023. "Catching Up of Latecomer Economies in ICT for Sustainable Development: An Analysis Based on Technology Life Cycle Using Patent Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-29, June.
    11. Choi, Jaewoong & Yoon, Janghyeok, 2022. "Measuring knowledge exploration distance at the patent level: Application of network embedding and citation analysis," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    12. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Nicoló Barbieri & François Perruchas & Davide Consoli, 2020. "Specialization, Diversification, and Environmental Technology Life Cycle," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 96(2), pages 161-186, March.
    14. Yang, Zaoli & Zhang, Weijian & Yuan, Fei & Islam, Nazrul, 2021. "Measuring topic network centrality for identifying technology and technological development in online communities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. Yuan Zhou & Fang Dong & Yufei Liu & Liang Ran, 2021. "A deep learning framework to early identify emerging technologies in large-scale outlier patents: an empirical study of CNC machine tool," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(2), pages 969-994, February.
    16. Sajjad Shokouhyar & Mehrdad Maghsoudi & Shahrzad Khanizadeh & Saeid Jorfi, 2024. "Analyzing supply chain technology trends through network analysis and clustering techniques: a patent-based study," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 341(1), pages 313-348, October.
    17. Richarz, Jan & Wegewitz, Stephan & Henn, Sarah & Müller, Dirk, 2023. "Graph-based research field analysis by the use of natural language processing: An overview of German energy research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    18. Ki Hong Kim & Young Jae Han & Sugil Lee & Sung Won Cho & Chulung Lee, 2019. "Text Mining for Patent Analysis to Forecast Emerging Technologies in Wireless Power Transfer," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-24, November.
    19. Schmidt, Arne & Walter, Sascha G. & Walter, Achim, 2010. "Contingency Factors and the Technology-Performance-Relationship in Start-ups," EconStor Preprints 37082, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Eilers, Kathi & Frischkorn, Jonas & Eppinger, Elisabeth & Walter, Lothar & Moehrle, Martin G., 2019. "Patent-based semantic measurement of one-way and two-way technology convergence: The case of ultraviolet light emitting diodes (UV-LEDs)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 341-353.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:195:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523004626. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.