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Forecasting the development trend of low emission vehicle technologies: Based on patent data

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  • Yuan, Xiaodong
  • Cai, Yuchen

Abstract

With the increasing awareness of environmental protection, there is a consensus on developing low emission vehicle (LEV) technologies but the trend is unclear. The LEV technologies, including hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV), and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) technology, are considered as alternative technologies for the conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). The purpose of the paper is to forecast the future development trend of drivetrain technologies. In doing so, a revised method of technological forecasting is proposed on the basis of the S-curve simulation for growth curves and entropy weight method for ranking candidates, which leads to forecasting results are more objective and accurate. Our findings highlight that HEV has the most promising future, followed by BEV and ICEV, but FCEV develops slowly. The implications are that policymakers should maintain the principle of technology-neutral when implementing various policies, while enterprises should be aware of the hybridization trend of vehicles in the business strategy-making process.

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  • Yuan, Xiaodong & Cai, Yuchen, 2021. "Forecasting the development trend of low emission vehicle technologies: Based on patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:166:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000834
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120651
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