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Topic-based technological forecasting based on patent data: A case study of Australian patents from 2000 to 2014

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  • Chen, Hongshu
  • Zhang, Guangquan
  • Zhu, Donghua
  • Lu, Jie

Abstract

The study of technological forecasting is an important part of patent analysis. Although fitting models can provide a rough tendency of a technical area, the trend of the detailed content within the area remains hidden. It is also difficult to reveal the trend of specific topics using keyword-based text mining techniques, since it is very hard to track the temporal patterns of a single keyword that generally represents a technological concept. To overcome these limitations, this research proposes a topic-based technological forecasting approach, to uncover the trends of specific topics underlying massive patent claims using topic modelling. A topic annual weight matrix and a sequence of topic-based trend coefficients are generated to quantitatively estimate the developing trends of the discovered topics, and evaluate to what degree various topics have contributed to the patenting activities of the whole area. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach, we present a case study using 13,910 utility patents that were published during the years 2000 to 2014, owned by Australian assignees, in the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). The results indicate that the proposed approach is effective for estimating the temporal patterns and forecast the future trends of the latent topics underlying massive claims. The topic-based knowledge and the corresponding trend analysis provided by the approach can be used to facilitate further technological decisions or opportunity discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Hongshu & Zhang, Guangquan & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2017. "Topic-based technological forecasting based on patent data: A case study of Australian patents from 2000 to 2014," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 39-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:119:y:2017:i:c:p:39-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.03.009
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    Cited by:

    1. Jongchan Kim & Jaehyun Choi & Sangsung Park & Dongsik Jang, 2018. "Patent Keyword Extraction for Sustainable Technology Management," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Wang, Xuefeng & Zhang, Shuo & Liu, Yuqin & Du, Jian & Huang, Heng, 2021. "How pharmaceutical innovation evolves: The path from science to technological development to marketable drugs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Ma, Tingting & Zhou, Xiao & Liu, Jia & Lou, Zhenkai & Hua, Zhaoting & Wang, Ruitao, 2021. "Combining topic modeling and SAO semantic analysis to identify technological opportunities of emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Montobbio, Fabio & Staccioli, Jacopo & Virgillito, Maria Enrica & Vivarelli, Marco, 2022. "Robots and the origin of their labour-saving impact," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Qianqian Jin & Hongshu Chen & Ximeng Wang & Tingting Ma & Fei Xiong, 2022. "Exploring funding patterns with word embedding-enhanced organization–topic networks: a case study on big data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5415-5440, September.
    6. Zhou, Yuan & Dong, Fang & Kong, Dejing & Liu, Yufei, 2019. "Unfolding the convergence process of scientific knowledge for the early identification of emerging technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 205-220.
    7. Graziela Salvan Cerveira & Jorge Lima de Magalhães & Adelaide Maria de Souza Antunes, 2022. "Status and Trends of Membrane Technology for Wastewater Treatment: A Patent Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Jiang, Cuiqing & Zhou, Yiru & Chen, Bo, 2023. "Mining semantic features in patent text for financial distress prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Yang, Zaoli & Zhang, Weijian & Yuan, Fei & Islam, Nazrul, 2021. "Measuring topic network centrality for identifying technology and technological development in online communities," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    10. Savin, Ivan & Ott, Ingrid & Konop, Chris, 2022. "Tracing the evolution of service robotics: Insights from a topic modeling approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Lee, Jiho & Ko, Namuk & Yoon, Janghyeok & Son, Changho, 2021. "An approach for discovering firm-specific technology opportunities: Application of link prediction to F-term networks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    13. Choi, Hyunhong & Woo, JongRoul, 2022. "Investigating emerging hydrogen technology topics and comparing national level technological focus: Patent analysis using a structural topic model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    14. Xi, Xi & Ren, Feifei & Yu, Lean & Yang, Jing, 2023. "Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    15. Percia David, Dimitri & Maréchal, Loïc & Lacube, William & Gillard, Sébastien & Tsesmelis, Michael & Maillart, Thomas & Mermoud, Alain, 2023. "Measuring security development in information technologies: A scientometric framework using arXiv e-prints," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    16. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 432-449.
    17. Donghyun Choi & Bomi Song, 2018. "Exploring Technological Trends in Logistics: Topic Modeling-Based Patent Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-26, August.
    18. Seo, Wonchul & Afifuddin, Mokh, 2024. "Developing a supervised learning model for anticipating potential technology convergence between technology topics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    19. Ren, Haiying & Zhao, Yuhui, 2021. "Technology opportunity discovery based on constructing, evaluating, and searching knowledge networks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    20. Erzurumlu, S. Sinan & Pachamanova, Dessislava, 2020. "Topic modeling and technology forecasting for assessing the commercial viability of healthcare innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    21. Ghaffari, Mohsen & Aliahmadi, Alireza & Khalkhali, Abolfazl & Zakery, Amir & Daim, Tugrul U. & Yalcin, Haydar, 2023. "Topic-based technology mapping using patent data analysis: A case study of vehicle tires," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    22. Zhang, Hao & Daim, Tugrul & Zhang, Yunqiu (Peggy), 2021. "Integrating patent analysis into technology roadmapping: A latent dirichlet allocation based technology assessment and roadmapping in the field of Blockchain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    23. Gozuacik, Necip & Sakar, C. Okan & Ozcan, Sercan, 2023. "Technological forecasting based on estimation of word embedding matrix using LSTM networks," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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