IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v166y2021ics0040162521000780.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A review of data analytics in technological forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Changyong

Abstract

Technological forecasting (TF) has significantly benefited from data analytics over the past decades. However, little effort has been made to present an overview of data analytics in TF and discuss its key features and contributions. Consequently, there exist duplication of efforts, inconsistency in applications and a lack of understanding of the current state-of-the-art and common methodology frameworks. This study attempts to fill this research gap by conducting a review of the work on data analytics in TF published in leading journals in the field of technology and innovation management. We first develop a process-focused morphological matrix that provides a simple yet comprehensive view and enables the full spectrum of data analytics in TF to be examined. Specifically, the matrix consists of four dimensions and 12 factors: (1) awareness of TF contexts (objective, time horizon, field and level of analysis); (2) data collection and pre-processing (data source, data item and measure); (3) data analysis and validation (approach, methodology and performance evaluation); and (4) value creation (outcome and implication). A thorough presentation of the literature is then provided after the configurations of each article are identified. Accordingly, we also examine the practical implications of the process-focused morphological matrix and suggest future research directions in the field.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Changyong, 2021. "A review of data analytics in technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:166:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000780
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120646
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521000780
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120646?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coccia, Mario, 2019. "The theory of technological parasitism for the measurement of the evolution of technology and technological forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 289-304.
    2. Mendonca, Sandro & Pereira, Tiago Santos & Godinho, Manuel Mira, 2004. "Trademarks as an indicator of innovation and industrial change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1385-1404, November.
    3. Albert, Till & Moehrle, Martin G. & Meyer, Stefan, 2015. "Technology maturity assessment based on blog analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 196-209.
    4. Kyebambe, Moses Ntanda & Cheng, Ge & Huang, Yunqing & He, Chunhui & Zhang, Zhenyu, 2017. "Forecasting emerging technologies: A supervised learning approach through patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 236-244.
    5. Kim, Hyunwoo & Hong, Suckwon & Kwon, Ohjin & Lee, Changyong, 2017. "Concentric diversification based on technological capabilities: Link analysis of products and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 246-257.
    6. Sanders, Nada R. & Manrodt, Karl B., 2003. "The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 511-522, December.
    7. Lee, Changyong & Kang, Bokyoung & Shin, Juneseuk, 2015. "Novelty-focused patent mapping for technology opportunity analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 355-365.
    8. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Amit Seru & Noah Stoffman, 2017. "Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(2), pages 665-712.
    9. Kwon, Heeyeul & Kim, Jieun & Park, Yongtae, 2017. "Applying LSA text mining technique in envisioning social impacts of emerging technologies: The case of drone technology," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 60, pages 15-28.
    10. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Jiang, Jiaojiao & Zhou, Yuan & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Identifying and monitoring the development trends of emerging technologies using patent analysis and Twitter data mining: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 687-705.
    11. Kim, Namil & Lee, Hyeokseong & Kim, Wonjoon & Lee, Hyunjong & Suh, Jong Hwan, 2015. "Dynamic patterns of industry convergence: Evidence from a large amount of unstructured data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1734-1748.
    12. Lee, Changyong & Song, Bomi & Park, Yongtae, 2015. "An instrument for scenario-based technology roadmapping: How to assess the impacts of future changes on organisational plans," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA), pages 285-301.
    13. Strumsky, Deborah & Lobo, José, 2015. "Identifying the sources of technological novelty in the process of invention," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1445-1461.
    14. Fleming, Lee & Sorenson, Olav, 2001. "Technology as a complex adaptive system: evidence from patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1019-1039, August.
    15. Reitzig, Markus, 2004. "Improving patent valuations for management purposes--validating new indicators by analyzing application rationales," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(6-7), pages 939-957, September.
    16. Geissinger, Andrea & Laurell, Christofer & Sandström, Christian, 2020. "Digital Disruption beyond Uber and Airbnb—Tracking the long tail of the sharing economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    17. Aharonson, Barak S. & Schilling, Melissa A., 2016. "Mapping the technological landscape: Measuring technology distance, technological footprints, and technology evolution," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 81-96.
    18. Geum, Youngjung & Park, Yongtae, 2016. "How to generate creative ideas for innovation: a hybrid approach of WordNet and morphological analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 176-187.
    19. Lee, Changyong & Kim, Juram & Kwon, Ohjin & Woo, Han-Gyun, 2016. "Stochastic technology life cycle analysis using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 53-64.
    20. Kim, Juram & Kim, Seungho & Lee, Changyong, 2019. "Anticipating technological convergence: Link prediction using Wikipedia hyperlinks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 25-34.
    21. Zhang, Yi & Porter, Alan L. & Hu, Zhengyin & Guo, Ying & Newman, Nils C., 2014. "“Term clumping” for technical intelligence: A case study on dye-sensitized solar cells," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 26-39.
    22. Gao, Lidan & Porter, Alan L. & Wang, Jing & Fang, Shu & Zhang, Xian & Ma, Tingting & Wang, Wenping & Huang, Lu, 2013. "Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 398-407.
    23. Moehrle, Martin G. & Caferoglu, Hüseyin, 2019. "Technological speciation as a source for emerging technologies. Using semantic patent analysis for the case of camera technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 776-784.
    24. Lee, Changyong & Kwon, Ohjin & Kim, Myeongjung & Kwon, Daeil, 2018. "Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 291-303.
    25. Bessen, James, 2008. "The value of U.S. patents by owner and patent characteristics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 932-945, June.
    26. Altuntas, Serkan & Dereli, Turkay & Kusiak, Andrew, 2015. "Analysis of patent documents with weighted association rules," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 249-262.
    27. Janghyeok Yoon & Kwangsoo Kim, 2011. "Identifying rapidly evolving technological trends for R&D planning using SAO-based semantic patent networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 88(1), pages 213-228, July.
    28. Dietmar Harhoff & Francis Narin & F. M. Scherer & Katrin Vopel, 1999. "Citation Frequency And The Value Of Patented Inventions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 511-515, August.
    29. Janghyeok Yoon & Kwangsoo Kim, 2012. "Detecting signals of new technological opportunities using semantic patent analysis and outlier detection," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 90(2), pages 445-461, February.
    30. Ernst, Holger, 2003. "Patent information for strategic technology management," World Patent Information, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-242, September.
    31. Zhang, Yi & Huang, Ying & Porter, Alan L. & Zhang, Guangquan & Lu, Jie, 2019. "Discovering and forecasting interactions in big data research: A learning-enhanced bibliometric study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 795-807.
    32. Lee, Hakyeon & Kim, Sang Gook & Park, Hyun-woo & Kang, Pilsung, 2014. "Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-64.
    33. Kayser, Victoria & Blind, Knut, 2017. "Extending the knowledge base of foresight: The contribution of text mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 208-215.
    34. Lee, Won Sang & Han, Eun Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Predicting the pattern of technology convergence using big-data technology on large-scale triadic patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 317-329.
    35. Lee, Changyong & Cho, Yangrae & Seol, Hyeonju & Park, Yongtae, 2012. "A stochastic patent citation analysis approach to assessing future technological impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 16-29.
    36. Coccia, Mario, 2020. "Deep learning technology for improving cancer care in society: New directions in cancer imaging driven by artificial intelligence," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    37. Lee, Changyong & Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kwon, Ohjin, 2020. "Navigating a product landscape for technology opportunity analysis: A word2vec approach using an integrated patent-product database," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 96.
    38. Seo, Wonchul & Yoon, Janghyeok & Park, Hyunseok & Coh, Byoung-youl & Lee, Jae-Min & Kwon, Oh-Jin, 2016. "Product opportunity identification based on internal capabilities using text mining and association rule mining," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 94-104.
    39. Jan M. Gerken & Martin G. Moehrle, 2012. "A new instrument for technology monitoring: novelty in patents measured by semantic patent analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 91(3), pages 645-670, June.
    40. Zhang, Yi & Zhang, Guangquan & Chen, Hongshu & Porter, Alan L. & Zhu, Donghua & Lu, Jie, 2016. "Topic analysis and forecasting for science, technology and innovation: Methodology with a case study focusing on big data research," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 179-191.
    41. Iqbal, Rahat & Doctor, Faiyaz & More, Brian & Mahmud, Shahid & Yousuf, Usman, 2020. "Big data analytics: Computational intelligence techniques and application areas," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    42. Li, Xin & Xie, Qianqian & Daim, Tugrul & Huang, Lucheng, 2019. "Forecasting technology trends using text mining of the gaps between science and technology: The case of perovskite solar cell technology," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 432-449.
    43. Hoisl, Karin & Stelzer, Tobias & Biala, Stefanie, 2015. "Forecasting technological discontinuities in the ICT industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 522-532.
    44. Guo, Junfang & Wang, Xuefeng & Li, Qianrui & Zhu, Donghua, 2016. "Subject–action–object-based morphology analysis for determining the direction of technological change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schlembach, Christoph & Schmidt, Sascha L. & Schreyer, Dominik & Wunderlich, Linus, 2022. "Forecasting the Olympic medal distribution – A socioeconomic machine learning model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Hong, Suckwon & Kim, Juram & Woo, Han-Gyun & Kim, Young-Choon & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "Screening ideas in the early stages of technology development: A word2vec and convolutional neural network approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Kim, Juram & Hong, Suckwon & Kang, Yubin & Lee, Changyong, 2023. "Domain-specific valuation of university technologies using bibliometrics, Jonckheere–Terpstra tests, and data envelopment analysis," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Liu, Zhenfeng & Feng, Jian & Uden, Lorna, 2023. "Technology opportunity analysis using hierarchical semantic networks and dual link prediction," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Kim, Juram & Lee, Gyumin & Lee, Seungbin & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "Towards expert–machine collaborations for technology valuation: An interpretable machine learning approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    6. Just, Julian, 2024. "Natural language processing for innovation search – Reviewing an emerging non-human innovation intermediary," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Percia David, Dimitri & Maréchal, Loïc & Lacube, William & Gillard, Sébastien & Tsesmelis, Michael & Maillart, Thomas & Mermoud, Alain, 2023. "Measuring security development in information technologies: A scientometric framework using arXiv e-prints," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Tingting Wei & Danyu Feng & Shiling Song & Cai Zhang, 2024. "An extraction and novelty evaluation framework for technology knowledge elements of patents," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 129(11), pages 7417-7442, November.
    9. Niza, Iasmin Lourenço & Cordeiro Gomes, Gabriel Costa & Broday, Evandro Eduardo, 2024. "Indoor environmental quality models: A bibliometric, mapping and clustering review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kim, Juram & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "A doc2vec and local outlier factor approach to measuring the novelty of patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Mustafa Ozguven & Chong Yan Gao & Mohamed Yacine Si Tayeb, 2021. "The Utilization of Autoregressive Forecasting Models in Strategic Management," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 5(7), pages 170-185.
    12. Lee, Gyumin & Lee, Sungjun & Lee, Changyong, 2023. "Inventor–licensee matchmaking for university technology licensing: A fastText approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Yu, Baojun & Li, Changming & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Forecasting credit ratings of decarbonized firms: Comparative assessment of machine learning models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    14. Youngjun Kim & Changho Son, 2022. "Evaluation of Online Communities for Technology Foresight: Data-Driven Approach Based on Expertise and Diversity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-13, October.
    15. Jeon, Daeseong & Lee, Junyoup & Ahn, Joon Mo & Lee, Changyong, 2023. "Measuring the novelty of scientific publications: A fastText and local outlier factor approach," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan Zhou & Fang Dong & Yufei Liu & Liang Ran, 2021. "A deep learning framework to early identify emerging technologies in large-scale outlier patents: an empirical study of CNC machine tool," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(2), pages 969-994, February.
    2. Changyong Lee & Gyumin Lee, 2019. "Technology opportunity analysis based on recombinant search: patent landscape analysis for idea generation," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 121(2), pages 603-632, November.
    3. Lee, Changyong & Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kwon, Ohjin, 2020. "Navigating a product landscape for technology opportunity analysis: A word2vec approach using an integrated patent-product database," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 96.
    4. Lee, Changyong & Kwon, Ohjin & Kim, Myeongjung & Kwon, Daeil, 2018. "Early identification of emerging technologies: A machine learning approach using multiple patent indicators," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 291-303.
    5. Jeon, Daeseong & Ahn, Joon Mo & Kim, Juram & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "A doc2vec and local outlier factor approach to measuring the novelty of patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    6. Ren, Haiying & Zhao, Yuhui, 2021. "Technology opportunity discovery based on constructing, evaluating, and searching knowledge networks," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Liu, Zhenfeng & Feng, Jian & Uden, Lorna, 2023. "Technology opportunity analysis using hierarchical semantic networks and dual link prediction," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Changyong Lee & Suckwon Hong & Juram Kim, 2021. "Anticipating multi-technology convergence: a machine learning approach using patent information," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 1867-1896, March.
    9. Choi, Jaewoong & Lee, Changyong & Yoon, Janghyeok, 2023. "Exploring a technology ecology for technology opportunity discovery: A link prediction approach using heterogeneous knowledge graphs," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    10. Sun, Bixuan & Kolesnikov, Sergey & Goldstein, Anna & Chan, Gabriel, 2021. "A dynamic approach for identifying technological breakthroughs with an application in solar photovoltaics," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    11. Erzurumlu, S. Sinan & Pachamanova, Dessislava, 2020. "Topic modeling and technology forecasting for assessing the commercial viability of healthcare innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    12. Youngjae Choi & Sanghyun Park & Sungjoo Lee, 2021. "Identifying emerging technologies to envision a future innovation ecosystem: A machine learning approach to patent data," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(7), pages 5431-5476, July.
    13. Kim, Juram & Lee, Gyumin & Lee, Seungbin & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "Towards expert–machine collaborations for technology valuation: An interpretable machine learning approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    14. Serkan Altuntas & Zulfiye Erdogan & Turkay Dereli, 2020. "A clustering-based approach for the evaluation of candidate emerging technologies," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1157-1177, August.
    15. Taeyeoun Roh & Yujin Jeong & Byungun Yoon, 2017. "Developing a Methodology of Structuring and Layering Technological Information in Patent Documents through Natural Language Processing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Seunghyun Oh & Jaewoong Choi & Namuk Ko & Janghyeok Yoon, 2020. "Predicting product development directions for new product planning using patent classification-based link prediction," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1833-1876, December.
    17. Ghaffari, Mohsen & Aliahmadi, Alireza & Khalkhali, Abolfazl & Zakery, Amir & Daim, Tugrul U. & Yalcin, Haydar, 2023. "Topic-based technology mapping using patent data analysis: A case study of vehicle tires," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Hong, Suckwon & Kim, Juram & Woo, Han-Gyun & Kim, Young-Choon & Lee, Changyong, 2022. "Screening ideas in the early stages of technology development: A word2vec and convolutional neural network approach," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Uijun Kwon & Youngjung Geum, 2020. "Identification of promising inventions considering the quality of knowledge accumulation: a machine learning approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1877-1897, December.
    20. Kyuwoong Kim & Kyeongmin Park & Sungjoo Lee, 2019. "Investigating technology opportunities: the use of SAOx analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 118(1), pages 45-70, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:166:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521000780. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.