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Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures

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  • Junmo Kim

    (Hyosung Corporation)

  • Juneseuk Shin

    (Sungkyunkwan University)

Abstract

Technological trajectory is an attractive concept, but is hard to be operationalized. Challenging this issue, we suggest an extended technological trajectory method. It identifies not only the single main path, but derivative paths emanating from technology junctures on the main path. Convergence and divergence of technologies occur on junctures that are identified by using three indicators of technology generality, path-specific generality and path-specific novelty. Dynamic technology tree allows researchers to identify product component—patent linkages in a structured way, deepening our understanding about effects of technological developments on a product. In practice, our approach can help researchers better identify technologically related opportunities, thereby triggering the process from well-focused technology portfolio to technological advantages. High voltage direct current transmission technology is exemplified.

Suggested Citation

  • Junmo Kim & Juneseuk Shin, 2018. "Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1439-1459, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:116:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-018-2834-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-018-2834-3
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    5. Hwang, Seonho & Shin, Juneseuk, 2019. "Extending technological trajectories to latest technological changes by overcoming time lags," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 142-153.
    6. Huailan Liu & Zhiwang Chen & Jie Tang & Yuan Zhou & Sheng Liu, 2020. "Mapping the technology evolution path: a novel model for dynamic topic detection and tracking," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 2043-2090, December.
    7. Davide Castellani & Giovanni Marin & Sandro Montresor & Antonello Zanfei, 2020. "Foreign Direct Investments and Regional Specialization in Environmental Technologies," SEEDS Working Papers 0620, SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, revised Apr 2020.
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    9. Martin Ho & Henry CW Price & Tim S Evans & Eoin O'Sullivan, 2023. "Order in Innovation," Papers 2302.13076, arXiv.org.
    10. Kuan, Chung-Huei & Lin, Jia-Tian & Chen, Dar-Zen, 2021. "Characterizing Patent Assignees by Their Structural Positions Relative to a Field’s Evolutionary Trajectory," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    11. Yongchang Wei & Lei Chen & Yu Qi & Can Wang & Fei Li & Haorong Wang & Fangyu Chen, 2019. "A Complex Network Method in Criticality Evaluation of Air Quality Standards," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
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    13. Zhou, Yong & Yang, Qijin & Lu, Shuo, 2023. "Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Xiaorui Jiang & Junjun Liu, 2023. "Extracting the evolutionary backbone of scientific domains: The semantic main path network analysis approach based on citation context analysis," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 74(5), pages 546-569, May.
    15. Jinkuk Kim & Jungsub Yoon & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2021. "Dominant design and evolution of technological trajectories: The case of tank technology, 1915–1998," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 661-676, April.
    16. Euiyoung Chung & So Young Sohn, 2023. "Processing-in-Memory Development Strategy for AI Computing Using Main-Path and Doc2Vec Analyses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
    17. Xi, Xi & Ren, Feifei & Yu, Lean & Yang, Jing, 2023. "Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    18. Wang, Xiaoli & Liang, Wenting & Ye, Xuanting & Chen, Lingdi & Liu, Yun, 2024. "Disruptive development path measurement for emerging technologies based on the patent citation network," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1).
    19. Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Drave, Vinayak A. & Lu, Tzu-Chuen & Kumar, Vimal, 2023. "Patent analysis based technology innovation assessment with the lens of disruptive innovation theory: A case of blockchain technological trajectories," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. John S. Liu & Louis Y. Y. Lu & Mei Hsiu-Ching Ho, 2019. "A few notes on main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 379-391, April.
    21. Flavia Filippin, 2021. "Do main paths reflect technological trajectories? Applying main path analysis to the semiconductor manufacturing industry," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6443-6477, August.
    22. Escolar, Emerson G. & Hiraoka, Yasuaki & Igami, Mitsuru & Ozcan, Yasin, 2023. "Mapping firms’ locations in technological space: A topological analysis of patent statistics," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(8).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Technological trajectory; Main path; Derivative path; Dynamic technology tree; Technology juncture;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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