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Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data

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  • Triulzi, Giorgio
  • Alstott, Jeff
  • Magee, Christopher L.

Abstract

The future direction of technology development depends on the relative yearly rate of functional performance improvement of different technologies. We use patent data to identify accurate and reliable predictors of this rate for 30 technologies. We illustrate how patent-based predictors should be normalized to correct for possible confounding factors introduced by changing patenting dynamics. We test the accuracy and reliability of various predictors by means of a Monte Carlo cross-validation exercise. We find that a measure of the centrality of domains’ patented inventions in the overall US patent citation network is an accurate and highly reliable predictor of improvement rates.

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  • Triulzi, Giorgio & Alstott, Jeff & Magee, Christopher L., 2020. "Estimating technology performance improvement rates by mining patent data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120100
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    Cited by:

    1. Park, Inchae & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2022. "Tracing the emergence of new technology: A comparative analysis of five technological domains," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    2. Böhmecke-Schwafert, Moritz & García Moreno, Eduardo, 2023. "Exploring blockchain-based innovations for economic and sustainable development in the global south: A mixed-method approach based on web mining and topic modeling," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    3. Singh, Anuraag & Triulzi, Giorgio & Magee, Christopher L., 2021. "Technological improvement rate predictions for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    4. Hötte, Kerstin & Pichler, Anton & Lafond, François, 2021. "The rise of science in low-carbon energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Xi, Xi & Ren, Feifei & Yu, Lean & Yang, Jing, 2023. "Detecting the technology's evolutionary pathway using HiDS-trait-driven tech mining strategy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    6. Matthias Niggli & Christian Rutzer, 2023. "Digital technologies, technological improvement rates, and innovations “Made in Switzerland”," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 159(1), pages 1-31, December.
    7. Anuraag Singh & Giorgio Triulzi & Christopher L. Magee, 2020. "Technological improvement rate estimates for all technologies: Use of patent data and an extended domain description," Papers 2004.13919, arXiv.org.

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