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Econometric Analysis of 15-minute Intraday Electricity Prices

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  1. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  2. Lars Ivar Hagfors & Hilde Hørthe Kamperud & Florentina Paraschiv & Marcel Prokopczuk & Alma Sator & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the German day-ahead electricity market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1929-1948, December.
  3. Piccirilli, Marco & Schmeck, Maren Diane & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2021. "Capturing the power options smile by an additive two-factor model for overlapping futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  4. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
  5. Kramer, Anke & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2021. "Exogenous factors for order arrivals on the intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  6. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Beating the Naïve—Combining LASSO with Naïve Intraday Electricity Price Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-16, April.
  7. Renato Fernandes & Isabel Soares, 2022. "Reviewing Explanatory Methodologies of Electricity Markets: An Application to the Iberian Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
  8. Ren'e Aid & Andrea Cosso & Huy^en Pham, 2020. "Equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets," Papers 2010.09285, arXiv.org.
  9. Gupta, Aparna & Palepu, Sai, 2024. "Designing risk-free service for renewable wind and solar resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 715-728.
  10. Ocker, Fabian & Jaenisch, Vincent, 2020. "The way towards European electricity intraday auctions – Status quo and future developments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  11. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  12. Jan Niklas Buescher & Daria Gottwald & Florian Momm & Alexander Zureck, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis on the Efficiency of European Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-21, May.
  13. Maciejowska, Katarzyna & Nitka, Weronika & Weron, Tomasz, 2021. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation for day-ahead forecasting of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  14. Karl Frauendorfer & Florentina Paraschiv & Michael Schürle, 2018. "Cross-Border Effects on Swiss Electricity Prices in the Light of the Energy Transition," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-30, August.
  15. Spodniak, Petr & Ollikka, Kimmo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2019. "The Relevance of Wholesale Electricity Market Places: The Nordic Case," Working Papers 126, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
  16. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2022. "A portfolio management of a small RES utility with a Structural Vector Autoregressive model of German electricity markets," Papers 2205.00975, arXiv.org.
  17. Riccardo Brignone & Carlo Sgarra, 2020. "Asian options pricing in Hawkes-type jump-diffusion models," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 101-119, March.
  18. Croonenbroeck, Carsten & Hüttel, Silke, 2017. "Quantifying the economic efficiency impact of inaccurate renewable energy price forecasts," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 767-774.
  19. Nikkinen, Jussi & Rothovius, Timo, 2019. "Market specific seasonal trading behavior in NASDAQ OMX electricity options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 16-29.
  20. Deman, Laureen & Boucher, Quentin, 2023. "Impact of renewable energy generation on power reserve energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  21. Thomas Kuppelwieser & David Wozabal, 2023. "Intraday power trading: toward an arms race in weather forecasting?," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 57-83, March.
  22. Latini, Luca & Piccirilli, Marco & Vargiolu, Tiziano, 2019. "Mean-reverting no-arbitrage additive models for forward curves in energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 157-170.
  23. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2021. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Papers 2104.14204, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
  24. Cassandra Milbradt & Dorte Kreher, 2022. "A cross-border market model with limited transmission capacities," Papers 2207.01939, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  25. Facchini, Angelo & Rubino, Alessandro & Caldarelli, Guido & Di Liddo, Giuseppe, 2019. "Changes to Gate Closure and its impact on wholesale electricity prices: The case of the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 110-121.
  26. Benjamin Favetto, 2019. "The European intraday electricity market : a modeling based on the Hawkes process," Working Papers hal-02089289, HAL.
  27. Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Price Volatility in Commodity Markets with Restricted Participation," EWI Working Papers 2017-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  28. Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Dimitrios Sotiros, 2021. "Forecasting Electricity Prices: Autoregressive Hybrid Nearest Neighbors (ARHNN) method," WORking papers in Management Science (WORMS) WORMS/21/06, Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  29. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  30. Ma, Rufei & Liu, Zhenhua & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive volatility spillovers in electricity markets: Time and frequency evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
  31. Thomas Deschatre & Xavier Warin, 2023. "A Common Shock Model for multidimensional electricity intraday price modelling with application to battery valuation," Papers 2307.16619, arXiv.org.
  32. Olivier Féron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price Formation and Optimal Trading in Intraday Electricity Markets with a Major Player," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, December.
  33. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2021. "Conformal prediction interval estimation and applications to day-ahead and intraday power markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 777-799.
  34. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Tomasz Serafin, 2020. "PCA Forecast Averaging—Predicting Day-Ahead and Intraday Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-19, July.
  35. Goodarzi, Shadi & Perera, H. Niles & Bunn, Derek, 2019. "The impact of renewable energy forecast errors on imbalance volumes and electricity spot prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  36. Michał Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2019. "Estimation and Simulation of the Transaction Arrival Process in Intraday Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
  37. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Optimal Order Execution in Intraday Markets: Minimizing Costs in Trade Trajectories," Papers 2009.07892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  38. Keles, Dogan & Dehler-Holland, Joris & Densing, Martin & Panos, Evangelos & Hack, Felix, 2020. "Cross-border effects in interconnected electricity markets - an analysis of the Swiss electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  39. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
  40. Pierre, Erwan & Schneider, Lorenz, 2024. "Intermittently coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  41. Christopher Koch & Philipp Maskos, 2020. "Passive Balancing Through Intraday Trading: Whether Interactions Between Short-term Trading and Balancing Stabilize Germany s Electricity System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 101-112.
  42. Jérôme Collet & Olivier Féron & Peter Tankov, 2017. "Optimal management of a wind power plant with storage capacity," Working Papers hal-01627593, HAL.
  43. van Leeuwen, Charlotte & Mulder, Machiel, 2018. "Power-to-gas in electricity markets dominated by renewables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 258-272.
  44. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
  45. Jérôme Collet & Olivier Féron & Peter Tankov, 2017. "Optimal management of a wind power plant with storage capacity," Working Papers 2017-87, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  46. Sergei Kulakov, 2020. "X-Model: Further Development and Possible Modifications," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, February.
  47. Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2018. "Optimal Portfolio in Intraday Electricity Markets Modelled by L\'evy-Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Processes," Papers 1807.01979, arXiv.org.
  48. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
  49. Chen Wang & Kaile Zhou & Lanlan Li & Shanlin Yang, 2018. "Multi-agent simulation-based residential electricity pricing schemes design and user selection decision-making," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(3), pages 1309-1327, February.
  50. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Day-Ahead vs. Intraday—Forecasting the Price Spread to Maximize Economic Benefits," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-15, February.
  51. Koch, Christopher & Hirth, Lion, 2019. "Short-term electricity trading for system balancing: An empirical analysis of the role of intraday trading in balancing Germany's electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
  52. Huisman, Ronald & Koolen, Derck & Stet, Cristian, 2021. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets with variable renewable energy sources," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 1260-1265.
  53. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
  54. Joanna Janczura & Andrzej Puć, 2023. "ARX-GARCH Probabilistic Price Forecasts for Diversification of Trade in Electricity Markets—Variance Stabilizing Transformation and Financial Risk-Minimizing Portfolio Allocation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-28, January.
  55. Li, Wei & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2022. "Modelling the evolution of wind and solar power infeed forecasts," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
  56. Karel Janda & Michaela Koscova, 2018. "Photovoltaics and the Slovak Electricity Market," Working Papers IES 2018/02, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2018.
  57. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  58. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
  59. Christopher Jahns, 2024. "Investigating Inefficiencies in the German Rental Housing Market: The Impact of Disclosing Total Costs on Energy Efficiency Appreciation," EWL Working Papers 2406, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2024.
  60. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Weron, 2019. "Enhancing load, wind and solar generation forecasts in day-ahead forecasting of spot and intraday electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  61. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  62. Christopher Kath, 2019. "Modeling Intraday Markets under the New Advances of the Cross-Border Intraday Project (XBID): Evidence from the German Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
  63. Olivier F'eron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price formation and optimal trading in intraday electricity markets," Papers 2009.04786, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
  64. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  65. Giorgia Callegaro & Andrea Mazzoran & Carlo Sgarra, 2019. "A Self-Exciting Modelling Framework for Forward Prices in Power Markets," Papers 1910.13286, arXiv.org.
  66. Richter, Lucas & Lehna, Malte & Marchand, Sophie & Scholz, Christoph & Dreher, Alexander & Klaiber, Stefan & Lenk, Steve, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence for Electricity Supply Chain automation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  67. Christopher Kath & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Tomasz Weron & Przemysław Zaleski & Rafał Weron, 2020. "Balancing Generation from Renewable Energy Sources: Profitability of an Energy Trader," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
  68. Thomas Deschatre & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "Electricity intraday price modeling with marked Hawkes processes," Papers 2103.07407, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
  69. Gürtler, Marc & Paulsen, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of wind and solar power forecasts on day-ahead and intraday electricity prices in Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 150-162.
  70. Serafin, Tomasz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2022. "Trading on short-term path forecasts of intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  71. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  72. Janda, Karel, 2018. "Slovak electricity market and the price merit order effect of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 551-562.
  73. Märkle-Huß, Joscha & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Neumann, Dirk, 2018. "Contract durations in the electricity market: Causal impact of 15min trading on the EPEX SPOT market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 367-378.
  74. Siddique, Muhammad Bilal & Keles, Dogan & Scheller, Fabian & Nielsen, Per Sieverts, 2024. "Dispatch strategies for large-scale heat pump based district heating under high renewable share and risk-aversion: A multistage stochastic optimization approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  75. Christopher Kath & Weronika Nitka & Tomasz Serafin & Tomasz Weron & Przemyslaw Zaleski & Rafal Weron, 2019. "Balancing RES generation: Profitability of an energy trader," HSC Research Reports HSC/19/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  76. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Econometric modelling and forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Papers 1812.09081, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2019.
  77. Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2019. "Price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 37-51.
  78. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Optimal bidding in hourly and quarter-hourly electricity price auctions: Trading large volumes of power with market impact and transaction costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  79. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Explaining Electricity Forward Premiums - Evidence for the Weather Uncertainty Effect," EWI Working Papers 2017-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  80. Le, Hong Lam & Ilea, Valentin & Bovo, Cristian, 2019. "Integrated European intra-day electricity market: Rules, modeling and analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 258-273.
  81. Cramer, Eike & Witthaut, Dirk & Mitsos, Alexander & Dahmen, Manuel, 2023. "Multivariate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices using normalizing flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
  82. Rüdiger Kiesel & Florentina Paraschiv & Audun Sætherø, 2019. "On the construction of hourly price forward curves for electricity prices," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 345-369, February.
  83. Ilkay Oksuz & Umut Ugurlu, 2019. "Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.
  84. Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2021. "Decision making with dynamic probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2106.16047, arXiv.org.
  85. Simon Hirsch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Simulation-based Forecasting for Intraday Power Markets: Modelling Cross-Product Price Effects," Papers 2306.13419, arXiv.org.
  86. Olivier F'eron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price formation and optimal trading in intraday electricity markets with a major player," Papers 2011.07655, arXiv.org.
  87. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
  88. Joanna Janczura & Aleksandra Michalak, 2020. "Optimization of Electric Energy Sales Strategy Based on Probabilistic Forecasts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, February.
  89. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
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