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The European intraday electricity market : a modeling based on the Hawkes process

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  • Benjamin Favetto

    (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This article deals with the modeling of the trading activity on the European electricity intraday market by a self-exciting point process (also known as Hawkes process). It gives some empirical evidence of self-excitement, and discuss the time-homogeneity of the baseline of the process. The question of the functional shape of the intensity kernel is also adressed. Finally, a parameter estimation procedure is derived for the model with a non-constant baseline.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Favetto, 2019. "The European intraday electricity market : a modeling based on the Hawkes process," Working Papers hal-02089289, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02089289
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02089289
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Emmanuel Bacry & Iacopo Mastromatteo & Jean-Franc{c}ois Muzy, 2015. "Hawkes processes in finance," Papers 1502.04592, arXiv.org, revised May 2015.
    2. E. Bacry & S. Delattre & M. Hoffmann & J. F. Muzy, 2013. "Modelling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 65-77, January.
    3. Kiesel, Rüdiger & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2017. "Econometric analysis of 15-minute intraday electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 77-90.
    4. Emmanuel Bacry & Jean-Fran�ois Muzy, 2014. "Hawkes model for price and trades high-frequency dynamics," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 1147-1166, July.
    5. José Da Fonseca & Riadh Zaatour, 2015. "Clustering and Mean Reversion in a Hawkes Microstructure Model," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(9), pages 813-838, September.
    6. Matthias Kirchner, 2017. "An estimation procedure for the Hawkes process," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 571-595, April.
    7. José Da Fonseca & Riadh Zaatour, 2014. "Hawkes Process: Fast Calibration, Application to Trade Clustering, and Diffusive Limit," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 548-579, June.
    8. Emmanuel Bacry & Sylvain Delattre & Marc Hoffmann & Jean-François Muzy, 2013. "Modelling microstructure noise with mutually exciting point processes," Post-Print hal-01313995, HAL.
    9. Kirchner, Matthias, 2016. "Hawkes and INAR(∞) processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 126(8), pages 2494-2525.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Deschatre & Xavier Warin, 2023. "A Common Shock Model for multidimensional electricity intraday price modelling with application to battery valuation," Papers 2307.16619, arXiv.org.
    2. Joshua McGillivray & Anatoliy Swishchuk, 2024. "Variance-Hawkes Process and its Application to Energy Markets," Papers 2410.08420, arXiv.org.
    3. Philippe Bergault & Enzo Cogn'eville, 2024. "Simulating and analyzing a sparse order book: an application to intraday electricity markets," Papers 2410.06839, arXiv.org.
    4. Thomas Deschatre & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "Electricity intraday price modeling with marked Hawkes processes," Papers 2103.07407, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European electricity intraday market; Self-exciting point process; change-point detection; parameter estimation;
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