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Price Volatility in Commodity Markets with Restricted Participation

Author

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  • Knaut, Andreas

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

  • Paschmann, Martin

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

Abstract

Analyzing commodity market dynamics, we observe that price volatility increases with reduced contract duration. In this paper, we derive a theoretical model depicting the price formation in two markets with altering product granularity. Supplemented by empirical evidence from German electricity markets for hourly and quarter-hourly products, we find that the high price volatility is triggered by restricted participation of suppliers in the market for quarter-hourly products as well as by sub-hourly variations of renewable supply and demand. Welfare implications reveal efficiency losses of EUR 96 million in 2015 that may be reduced if markets are coupled.

Suggested Citation

  • Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Price Volatility in Commodity Markets with Restricted Participation," EWI Working Papers 2017-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2017_002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Leveraging the Benefits of Integrating and Interacting Electric Vehicles and Distributed Energy Resources," EWI Working Papers 2017-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    2. Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Economic Analysis of Price Premiums in the Presence of Non-convexities - Evidence from German Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-12, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    3. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2019. "Modeling the electricity spot price with switching regime semi-nonparametric distributions," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 17618, Universidad EAFIT.
    4. Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2017. "Decoding Restricted Participation in Sequential Electricity Markets," EWI Working Papers 2017-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 31 Aug 2017.
    5. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Explaining Electricity Forward Premiums - Evidence for the Weather Uncertainty Effect," EWI Working Papers 2017-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Markets; Price Volatility; Sequential Market Organization; Short-Term Market Dynamics; Electricity Market Interaction; Short-Term Price Formation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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