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Contract durations in the electricity market: Causal impact of 15min trading on the EPEX SPOT market

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  • Märkle-Huß, Joscha
  • Feuerriegel, Stefan
  • Neumann, Dirk

Abstract

The European Power Exchange (EPEX) introduced two new products in 2011 and 2014 which reduce the delivery duration of electricity from 1h to 15min intervals. These changes to the market design aim to better reflect the intermittent power generation from renewable energy sources. However, little is known about trading in shorter intervals and its impact on the existing market. As a remedy, our evaluation first shows that the market has quickly adopted the new 15min contracts. Second, we estimate a Bayesian structural time series, which measures a causal decrease of electricity prices. Depending on the model specification, our results indicate that the reduction can be as high as 28% for existing hourly contracts subsequent to the introduction of 15min trading. Third, the use of 15min contracts coincides with intermittent power generation, as it incentivizes renewable energy providers to offer additional electricity. Altogether, our findings suggest that 15min trading is used to balance the intra-hour volatility of renewable energy sources. Consequently, this presents a blueprint for policy-makers, who can attain similar price reductions and larger feed-ins from renewable energy sources without direct costs in all countries with high shares of renewable energy sources.

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  • Märkle-Huß, Joscha & Feuerriegel, Stefan & Neumann, Dirk, 2018. "Contract durations in the electricity market: Causal impact of 15min trading on the EPEX SPOT market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 367-378.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:367-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.11.019
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    3. Marcel Kremer & Rüdiger Kiesel & Florentina Paraschiv, 2020. "Intraday Electricity Pricing of Night Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-14, September.
    4. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Papers 1811.08604, arXiv.org.
    5. Valitov, Niyaz & Maier, Andreas, 2020. "Asymmetric information in the German intraday electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Koch, Christopher & Hirth, Lion, 2019. "Short-term electricity trading for system balancing: An empirical analysis of the role of intraday trading in balancing Germany's electricity system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Christopher Jahns, 2024. "Investigating Inefficiencies in the German Rental Housing Market: The Impact of Disclosing Total Costs on Energy Efficiency Appreciation," EWL Working Papers 2406, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Aug 2024.
    8. Spodniak, Petr & Ollikka, Kimmo & Honkapuro, Samuli, 2019. "The relevance of wholesale electricity market places: the Nordic case," Papers WP631, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Khezr, Peyman, 2024. "How do changes in settlement periods affect wholesale market prices? Evidence from Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Rainer Baule & Michael Naumann, 2021. "Volatility and Dispersion of Hourly Electricity Contracts on the German Continuous Intraday Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Ocker, Fabian & Jaenisch, Vincent, 2020. "The way towards European electricity intraday auctions – Status quo and future developments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    13. Christopher Koch & Philipp Maskos, 2020. "Passive Balancing Through Intraday Trading: Whether Interactions Between Short-term Trading and Balancing Stabilize Germany s Electricity System," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 101-112.
    14. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1533-1547.
    15. Kath, Christopher & Ziel, Florian, 2018. "The value of forecasts: Quantifying the economic gains of accurate quarter-hourly electricity price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 411-423.
    16. Tim Schittekatte & Valerie Reif & Leonardo Meeus, 2021. "Welcoming New Entrants into European Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    17. Gandhi, Oktoviano & Zhang, Wenjie & Kumar, Dhivya Sampath & Rodríguez-Gallegos, Carlos D. & Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2024. "The value of solar forecasts and the cost of their errors: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    18. Fridgen, Gilbert & Michaelis, Anne & Rinck, Maximilian & Schöpf, Michael & Weibelzahl, Martin, 2020. "The search for the perfect match: Aligning power-trading products to the energy transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity market; 15min trading; Market design; Contract duration; Bayesian structural time series; Policy implications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law

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