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Opportunistic Political Cycles: Test in a Young Democracy Setting

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  1. Marcelin, Isaac & Lo, Gaye-Del & Sène, Babacar & Sun, Wei & Teclezion, Mussie, 2024. "Financial intermediation around national elections: Evidence of state-owned banks as credit smoothers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  2. Lehmann, M. Christian & Matarazzo, Hellen, 2019. "Voters’ response to in-kind transfers: Quasi-experimental evidence from prescription drug cost-sharing in Brazil," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
  3. Hoda Youssef, 2012. "Fiscal Manipulation in Non-democratic Regimes: The Case of Egypt," Working Papers 703, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
  4. John Ahlquist & Mark Copelovitch & Stefanie Walter, 2020. "The Political Consequences of External Economic Shocks: Evidence from Poland," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(4), pages 904-920, October.
  5. Scott Gehlbach & Konstantin Sonin & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2010. "Businessman Candidates," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 718-736, July.
  6. Bircan, Çağatay & Saka, Orkun, 2019. "Lending cycles and real outcomes: Costs of political misalignment," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
  7. Chiu, Eric M.P., 2020. "Reexamining the Macroeconomic Policy Cycle in Taiwan: Evidence from the Central Bank’s Monetary Reaction Function," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 61(2), pages 89-110, December.
  8. Köppl Turyna, Monika & Kula, Grzegorz & Balmas, Agata & Waclawska, Kamila, 2015. "The effects of fiscal autonomy on the size of public sector and the strength of political budget cycles in local expenditure," MPRA Paper 64202, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Josef Brechler & Adam Geršl, 2014. "Political legislation cycle in the Czech Republic," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 137-153, June.
  10. Rabia Nazir & Muhammad Nasir & Idrees Khawaja, 2022. "Political Budget Cycle: A Sub-National Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(3), pages 343-367, November.
  11. Massimiliano Ferraresi & Umberto Galmarini & Leonzio Rizzo & Alberto Zanardi, 2019. "Switch toward tax centralization in Italy: a wake-up for the local political budget cycle," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(4), pages 872-898, August.
  12. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
  13. Federico Revelli & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "The sacred and the profane of budget cycles: evidence from Italian municipalities," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(6), pages 1446-1477, December.
  14. Ruben Enikolopov, 2010. "Politicians, Bureaucrats and Targeted Redistribution: The Role of Career Concerns," Working Papers w0148, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  15. Dalle Nogare, Chiara & Kauder, Björn, 2017. "Term limits for mayors and intergovernmental grants: Evidence from Italian cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-11.
  16. Peter Spáč, 2021. "Pork barrel politics and electoral returns at the local level," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(3), pages 479-501, September.
  17. Sakurai, Sergio N. & Menezes, Naercio A., 2008. "Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities," Insper Working Papers wpe_117, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  18. Matz Dahlberg & Eva Mörk, 2011. "Is There an Election Cycle in Public Employment? Separating Time Effects from Election Year Effects," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 57(3), pages 480-498, September.
  19. Cipullo, Davide & Reslow, André, 2022. "Electoral cycles in macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 307-340.
  20. Marcos Yamada Nakaguma & Siegfried Bender, 2004. "A Emenda Da Reeleição E A Lei De Responsabilidade Fiscal: Impactos Sobre Ciclos Políticos E Performance Fiscal Dos Estados (1986-2002)," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  21. Lami, Endrit & Imami, Drini & Pugh, Geoffrey & Hashi, Iraj, 2021. "Fiscal performance and elections in the context of a transition economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
  22. Pal, Rupayan & Das, Aparajita, 2008. "Decentralisation and Political Business Cycle: Fund Utilization of the MP-LADS in India," MPRA Paper 10535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Stefano Gagliarducci & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Do Better Paid Politicians Perform Better? Disentangling Incentives From Selection," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 369-398, April.
  24. Qian, Nancy & Nunn, Nathan & Wen, Jaya, 2018. "Distrust and Political Turnover," CEPR Discussion Papers 12555, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Giommoni, Tommaso, 2024. "A fistful of dollars: Rent seeking behaviour and local tax manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 453-469.
  26. Ana Barreira & Rui Nuno Baleiras, 2000. "Cycles On Public Expenditure Composition Within the European Union," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600004, EcoMod.
  27. Brender, Adi & Drazen, Allan, 2005. "Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1271-1295, October.
  28. Ademmer, Esther & Dreher, Ferdinand, 2014. "Institutional constraints to political budget cycles in the enlarged EU," Kiel Working Papers 1964, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  29. Wang, Xue & Bohn, Frank, 2019. "Pension reserve fund, political budget cycles and fiscal illusion," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 62-73.
  30. Quinckhardt, Matthias, 2023. "The value of a party: Local politics and the allocation of intergovernmental transfers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  31. Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "A theory of political cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1166-1186, May.
  32. Jakob de Haan & Franziska Ohnsorge & Shu Yu, 2023. "Election-Induced Fiscal Policy Cycles in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 10868, CESifo.
  33. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Can Li & Danxue Gao & Weiguo Zhong, 2020. "A Political Cycle of Regional FDI Spillovers in an Emerging Market: Evidence from China," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 151-176, April.
  35. Paulo Jorge Reis Mourao, 2012. "The Weber-Fechner Law and Public Expenditures Impact to the Win-Margins at Parliamentary Elections," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(3), pages 291-308.
  36. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
  37. Antonio C. David & Can Sever, 2024. "Electoral cycles in tax reforms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 495-529, August.
  38. Toke Aidt & Zareh Asatryan & Lusine Badalyan & Friedrich Heinemann, 2020. "Vote Buying or (Political) Business (Cycles) as Usual?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 409-425, July.
  39. Alberto Alesina & Caterina Gennaioli & Stefania Lovo, 2019. "Public Goods and Ethnic Diversity: Evidence from Deforestation in Indonesia," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(341), pages 32-66, January.
  40. Foremny, Dirk & Riedel, Nadine, 2014. "Business taxes and the electoral cycle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-61.
  41. Marcelin, Isaac & Stephen, Sheryl-Ann K. & Fanta, Fassil & Tecklezion, Mussie, 2019. "Political regimes, investment and electoral uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 580-599.
  42. Bostashvili, David & Ujhelyi, Gergely, 2019. "Political budget cycles and the civil service: Evidence from highway spending in US states," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 17-28.
  43. Sebastian Blesse & Philipp Lergetporer & Justus Nover & Katharina Werner, 2023. "Transparency and Policy Competition: Experimental Evidence from German Citizens and Politicians," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 387, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  44. Frank Bohn & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "Do expected downturns kill political budget cycles?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 817-841, October.
  45. Monika Köppl-Turyna, 2016. "Opportunistic politicians and fiscal outcomes: the curious case of Vorarlberg," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 177-216, September.
  46. Fabio Padovano & Pauline Mille, 2023. "Education, fake news and the Political Budget Cycle," Economics Working Paper from Condorcet Center for political Economy at CREM-CNRS 2023-01-ccr, Condorcet Center for political Economy.
  47. Cameron Shelton, 2014. "Legislative budget cycles," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 251-275, April.
  48. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Gustavo Torrens, 2009. "Checks and Balances on Political Budget Cycles: Cross‐Country Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 426-447, August.
  49. Křápek Milan & Formanová Lucie, 2017. "Proposal for an Alternative Indicator for Testing the Presence of the Political-Budget Cycle in the Case of Tax Policy," NISPAcee Journal of Public Administration and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 10(2), pages 229-249, December.
  50. Silva-Escobar, Daniel, 2022. "Conducta electoral oportunista y determinantes económicos de la reelección de alcaldes/as en Chile," Documentos de Trabajo 10, Estudios Nueva Economía.
  51. Jorge M. Streb & Daniel Lema & Pablo Garofalo, 2012. "Temporal aggregation in political budget cycles," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2012), pages 39-78, August.
  52. Eslava, Marcela & Streb, Jorge M., 2011. "Comments," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123271, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  53. Manoel Bittencourt, 2018. "Young Democracies and Government Size: Evidence from South America," Working Papers 329, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  54. Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2013. "Voting functions in the EU-15," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 411-428, December.
  55. Lagona, Francesco & Padovano, Fabio, 2021. "How does legislative behavior change when the country becomes democratic? The case of South Korea," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  56. Sebastian Garmann, 2017. "Electoral cycles in public administration decisions: evidence from German municipalities," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(5), pages 712-723, May.
  57. Shawn Cole, 2009. "Fixing Market Failures or Fixing Elections? Agricultural Credit in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 219-250, January.
  58. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
  59. Alberto Alesina & Traviss Cassidy & Ugo Troiano, 2019. "Old and Young Politicians," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 86(344), pages 689-727, October.
  60. Irina Slinko & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya & Evgeny Yakovlev, 2005. "Laws for Sale: Evidence from Russia," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 7(1), pages 284-318.
  61. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2015. "Public investment and reelection prospects in developed countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(2), pages 471-500, October.
  62. Lockwood, Ben & Hindriks, Jean & Gonzalez, Paula & Porteiro, Nicolas, 2006. "Political Budget Cycles and Fiscal Decentralization," CEPR Discussion Papers 5646, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Woo‐Jong Lee & Jeffrey Pittman & Walid Saffar, 2020. "Political Uncertainty and Cost Stickiness: Evidence from National Elections around the World," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 1107-1139, June.
  64. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2007. "Демократизация И Экономический Рост [Democratization and Economic Growth]," MPRA Paper 23012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Alexandre SAUQUET & Antoine CAZALS, 2013. "When does cooperation win and why? Political cycles and participation in international environmental agreements," Working Papers 201320, CERDI.
  66. Lamar Crombach & Frank Bohn, 2024. "Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 275-311, March.
  67. Bertoli, Paola & Grembi, Veronica, 2021. "The political cycle of road traffic accidents," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  68. Carozzi, Felipe & Repetto, Luca, 2016. "Sending the pork home: Birth town bias in transfers to Italian municipalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 42-52.
  69. Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2020. "Who seeks reelection: local fiscal restraints and political selection," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 105-134, July.
  70. Zonaira Akbar & Malik Fahim Bashir & Yasir Bin Tariq, 2021. "An analysis of political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles in Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 2271-2293, December.
  71. Alesina, A. & Passalacqua, A., 2016. "The Political Economy of Government Debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2599-2651, Elsevier.
  72. Benoît SCHMUTZ & Grégory VERDUGO, 2020. "Do Politicians Shape the Electorate ? Evidence from French Municipalities," Working Papers 2020-18, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics, revised 01 Apr 2021.
  73. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who Adjusts and When?The Political Economy of Reforms," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-1.
  74. Spyros Skouras & Nicos Christodoulakis, 2014. "Electoral misgovernance cycles: evidence from wildfires and tax evasion in Greece," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 533-559, June.
  75. Luca Repetto, 2018. "Political Budget Cycles with Informed Voters: Evidence from Italy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(616), pages 3320-3353, December.
  76. Le Moglie, Marco & Turati, Gilberto, 2019. "Electoral cycle bias in the media coverage of corruption news," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 140-157.
  77. Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Economic Growth and Government Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of Latin America," Working Papers 201203, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  78. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2017. "Housing booms and busts and local fiscal policy," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-001, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  79. Manoel Bittencourt, 2015. "Determinants of Government and External Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 463-472, May.
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  81. Alesina, Alberto & Stella, Andrea, 2010. "The Politics of Monetary Policy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1001-1054, Elsevier.
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  85. Foremny, Dirk & Freier, Ronny & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2014. "Overlapping political budget cycles in the legislative and the executive," ZEW Discussion Papers 14-099, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
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  89. Bracco, Emanuele & Revelli, Federico, 2018. "Concurrent elections and political accountability: Evidence from Italian local elections," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 135-149.
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  133. Mark P. Jones & Osvaldo Meloni & Mariano Tommasi, 2012. "Voters as Fiscal Liberals: Incentives and Accountability in Federal Systems," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 135-156, July.
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  135. Julien Labonne, 2012. "The local electoral impacts of conditional cash transfers Evidence from a field experiment," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2012-09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  139. Kayode Taiwo & Linda G. Veiga, 2020. "Is there an “invisible hand” in the formula-based intergovernmental transfers in Nigeria?," NIPE Working Papers 02/2020, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
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