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Ciclos Políticos e Resultados Eleitorais: Um Estudo sobre o Comportamento do Eleitor Brasileiro

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  • Nakaguma, Marcos Yamada
  • Bender, Siegfried

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinant causes of the existence of political budget cycles in Brazilian Federal States. We propose a methodology to decompose the political cycles in order to identify the portions that are due to opportunism and to the signaling activity of governors. The aim is to investigate whether the electorate is capable of: (1) capture the competence signals sent by governors; and (2) identify and punish opportunistic politics. The results indicate that the electorate rewards opportunistic cycles in both revenue and public spending. As for the competence portion of the cycles, our results indicate that competence signaling occurs mainly through the budget revenue variables.

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  • Nakaguma, Marcos Yamada & Bender, Siegfried, 2010. "Ciclos Políticos e Resultados Eleitorais: Um Estudo sobre o Comportamento do Eleitor Brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:64:y:2010:i:1:a:1075
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    1. Rodrigo Octávio Orair & Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Ésio Moreira Leal, 2014. "Political Electoral Cycles and Public Investments in Brasil," Discussion Papers 1999a, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Celso José Costa Junior & Alejandro C. García Cintado & Manuel Alejandro Hidalgo Pérez, 2019. "Political-Business Cycles in BRICS Economies: Evidence from Brazil," Working Papers 19.09, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

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