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The evolution of overconfidence

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Cited by:

  1. Kai Barron & Christina Gravert, 2022. "Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 35-68, January.
  2. André Betzer & Inga Bongard & Felix Schweder & Erik Theissen & Christine Volkmann, 2023. "All is not lost that is delayed: overconfidence and investment outcomes," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(7), pages 2297-2324, October.
  3. Pirinsky, Christo, 2013. "Confidence and economic attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 139-158.
  4. Shakti Lamba & Vivek Nityananda, 2014. "Self-Deceived Individuals Are Better at Deceiving Others," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-6, August.
  5. Baojun Jiang & Chang Liu, 2019. "Managerial Optimism in a Competitive Market," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 833-846, April.
  6. Sweldens, Steven & Puntoni, Stefano & Paolacci, Gabriele & Vissers, Maarten, 2014. "The bias in the bias: Comparative optimism as a function of event social undesirability," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 229-244.
  7. Belayet Hossain & Panagiotis Tsigaris, 2015. "Are grade expectations rational? A classroom experiment," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 199-212, April.
  8. Quitterie Roquebert & Jonathan Sicsic & Thomas Rapp, 2021. "Health measures and long-term care use in the European frail population," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 22(3), pages 405-423, April.
  9. Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar & Lechner, Christian, 2013. "Cognitive biases, organization, and entrepreneurial firm survival," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 278-294.
  10. Lu, Xin & Shang, Jennifer & Wu, Shin-yi & Hegde, Gajanan G. & Vargas, Luis & Zhao, Daozhi, 2015. "Impacts of supplier hubris on inventory decisions and green manufacturing endeavors," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(1), pages 121-132.
  11. Alice Soldà & Changxia Ke & Lionel Page & William von Hippel, 2020. "Strategically delusional," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(3), pages 604-631, September.
  12. Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2023. "Biased expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  13. Deck, Cary & Sarangi, Sudipta & Wiser, Matt, 2017. "An experimental investigation of simultaneous multi-battle contests with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 117-134.
  14. Alice Soldà & Changxia Ke & Lionel Page & William von Hippel, 2019. "Strategically delusional," Working Papers 1908, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  15. Cronqvist, Henrik & Siegel, Stephan, 2014. "The genetics of investment biases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 215-234.
  16. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  17. Yawei Li & Tian Feng, 2020. "The effects of sport expertise and shot results on basketball players’ action anticipation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, January.
  18. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
  19. Robin Maximilian Stetzka & Stefan Winter, 2023. "How rational is gambling?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1488, September.
  20. Kai Barron, 2021. "Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
  21. Olivier Gossner & Jakub Steiner, 2016. "Optimal Illusion of Control and Related Perception Biases," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp571, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  22. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  23. Ahmet Ekici & Forrest Watson, 2022. "A model of consumer life‐satisfaction amidst the COVID‐19 pandemic: Evidence and policy implications," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 158-179, March.
  24. Spitzer, Sonja & Shaikh, Mujaheed, 2022. "Health misperception and healthcare utilisation among older Europeans," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  25. Neyse, Levent & Bosworth, Steven & Ring, Patrick & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2016. "Overconfidence, Incentives and Digit Ratio," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 130145, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  26. Thomas J Brennan & Andrew W Lo, 2012. "An Evolutionary Model of Bounded Rationality and Intelligence," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(11), pages 1-8, November.
  27. Lia Q. Flores & Miguel A. Fonseca, 2021. "Do in-group biases lead to overconfidence in performance? Experimental evidence," Discussion Papers 2103, University of Exeter, Department of Economics.
  28. Andreas Richter & Jochen Ruß & Stefan Schelling, 2019. "Insurance customer behavior: Lessons from behavioral economics," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 183-205, July.
  29. Liu, Zhongyi & Li, Mengyu & Lei, Ying & Zhai, Xin, 2022. "A joint strategy based on ordering and insurance for mitigating the effects of supply chain disruption on risk-averse firms," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
  30. Anushka Sandanam & Amy Diedrich & Georgina G. Gurney & Tristam D. Richardson, 2018. "Perceptions of Cyclone Preparedness: Assessing the Role of Individual Adaptive Capacity and Social Capital in the Wet Tropics, Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
  31. Davide Pietroni & Sibylla Verdi Hughes, 2016. "Nudge to the future: capitalizing on illusory superiority bias to mitigate temporal discounting," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 15(2), pages 247-264, November.
  32. Barron, Kai & Gravert, Christina, 2018. "Beliefs and actions: How a shift in confidence affects choices," MPRA Paper 84743, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Proeger, Till & Meub, Lukas, 2014. "Overconfidence as a social bias: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 203-207.
  34. Sophie Beukelaer & Neza Vehar & Max Rollwage & Stephen M. Fleming & Manos Tsakiris, 2023. "Changing minds about climate change: a pervasive role for domain-general metacognition," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
  35. Ray Saadaoui Mallek & Mohamed Albaity, 2019. "Individual differences and cognitive reflection across gender and nationality the case of the United Arab Emirates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1567965-156, January.
  36. Zhang, Stephen X. & Foo, Maw-Der & Vassolo, Roberto S., 2021. "The ramifications of effectuation on biases in entrepreneurship – Evidence from a mixed-method approach," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 15(C).
  37. Nicola Capolupo & Zuzana Virglerova & Angelo Rosa & Dario Natale Palmucci, 2024. "The relationship between biases and entrepreneurial Decision-Making. Evidence from Italian and Czech SMEs," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 3323-3348, December.
  38. Cafferata, Fernando G. & Domínguez, Patricio & Scartascini, Carlos, 2023. "Overconfidence and Gun Preferences: How Behavioral Biases Affect Your Safety," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12816, Inter-American Development Bank.
  39. Bolger, Fergus & Rowe, Gene & Belton, Ian & Crawford, Megan M & Hamlin, Iain & Sissons, Aileen & Taylor Browne Lūka, Courtney & Vasilichi, Alexandrina & Wright, George, 2020. "The Simulated Group Response Paradigm: A new approach to the study of opinion change in Delphi and other structured-group techniques," OSF Preprints 4ufzg, Center for Open Science.
  40. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
  41. Baiba Renerte & Jan Hausfeld & Torsten Twardawski, 2020. "Gender, overconfidence, and optimal group composition for investment decisions," TWI Research Paper Series 121, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
  42. Jennifer Kunz & Lara Sonnenholzner, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-128, January.
  43. Herold, Florian & Netzer, Nick, 2023. "Second-best probability weighting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 112-125.
  44. Friehe, Tim & Pannenberg, Markus, 2021. "Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  45. Jin, Minyue & Zhang, Xueqing & Xiong, Yu & Zhou, Yu, 2021. "Implications of green optimism upon sustainable supply chain management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(1), pages 131-139.
  46. Smith, Megan K. & Trivers, Robert & von Hippel, William, 2017. "Self-deception facilitates interpersonal persuasion," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 93-101.
  47. Maxime MENUET, 2016. "Does Overconfidence Drag Out War?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2394, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  48. Michael Muthukrishna & Joseph Henrich & Wataru Toyokawa & Takeshi Hamamura & Tatsuya Kameda & Steven J Heine, 2018. "Overconfidence is universal? Elicitation of Genuine Overconfidence (EGO) procedure reveals systematic differences across domain, task knowledge, and incentives in four populations," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(8), pages 1-30, August.
  49. Federico Bianchi & Francisco Grimaldo & Giangiacomo Bravo & Flaminio Squazzoni, 2018. "The peer review game: an agent-based model of scientists facing resource constraints and institutional pressures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1401-1420, September.
  50. Gao, Peng & Vochozka, Marek & Niu, Siqian, 2024. "The contagion effect of overconfidence in business group," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  51. Chulwook Park, 2020. "Interconnected Conditions of Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Behavior in Agent-Based Models- Matrix with Calculated Vectors," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 25(4), pages 19333-19341, February.
  52. Kriti Jain & Kanchan Mukherjee & J. Neil Bearden & Anil Gaba, 2013. "Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(9), pages 1970-1987, September.
  53. Wuepper, David & Drosten, Barbara, 2015. "Economic Implications of Historically Evolved Self-Efficacy: Agent-Based Modeling and Empirical Evidence from Rural Ghana," MPRA Paper 65413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Wasim Ahmed & Dilek Önkal & Ronnie Das & Satish Krishnan & Femi Olan & Mariann Hardey & Alex Fenton, 2023. "Developing Techniques to Support Technological Solutions to Disinformation by Analysing Four Conspiracy Networks During COVID-19," Post-Print hal-04692974, HAL.
  55. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Chen, Lifang & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2016. "Overinvestment, inflation uncertainty, and managerial overconfidence: Firm level analysis of Chinese corporations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 54-69.
  56. Steven Shead & Robert B Durand & Stephanie Thomas, 2021. "Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-15, September.
  57. Daniel L. Gamache & Michael D. Pfarrer & Kevin Curran, 2024. "Organizational hubris: Its antecedents and consequences for stakeholder relationships," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 1366-1392, July.
  58. Suzanne Hoogeveen & Julia M. Haaf & Joseph A. Bulbulia & Robert M. Ross & Ryan McKay & Sacha Altay & Theiss Bendixen & Renatas Berniūnas & Arik Cheshin & Claudio Gentili & Raluca Georgescu & Will M. G, 2022. "The Einstein effect provides global evidence for scientific source credibility effects and the influence of religiosity," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 523-535, April.
  59. Ting Que & Yuxin Wu & Shiyu Hu & Jianmin Cai & Nan Jiang & Huige Xing, 2022. "Factors Influencing Public Participation in Community Disaster Mitigation Activities: A Comparison of Model and Nonmodel Disaster Mitigation Communities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-18, September.
  60. Kennedy, Jessica A. & Anderson, Cameron & Moore, Don A., 2013. "When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 266-279.
  61. Roee Teper, 2014. "The Endowment Effect as a Blessing," Working Paper 5862, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh.
  62. Elhem Ben Fatma & Ezzeddine Ben Mohamed & Léo-Paul Dana & Sami Boudabbous, 2021. "Does entrepreneurs’ psychology affect their business venture success? Empirical findings from North Africa," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 921-962, June.
  63. Chulwook Park, 2019. "Network and Agent Dynamics with Evolving Protection against Systemic Risk," Papers 1907.11622, arXiv.org.
  64. Jan R. Magnus & Anatoly A. Peresetsky, 2017. "Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 17-054/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  65. W. Ahmed & D. Önkal & R. Das & S. Krishnan & F. Olan & M. Mariann Hardey & A. Alex Fenton, 2023. "Developing Techniques to Support Technological Solutions to Disinformation by Analysing Four Conspiracy Networks During COVID-19," Post-Print hal-04693779, HAL.
  66. Marios Kokkodis & Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis, 2021. "Demand-Aware Career Path Recommendations: A Reinforcement Learning Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4362-4383, July.
  67. Elena Druică & Fabio Musso & Rodica Ianole-Călin, 2020. "Optimism Bias during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Empirical Evidence from Romania and Italy," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-15, September.
  68. Jialu Li & Meng Li & Xuan Zhao, 2021. "Transshipment Between Overconfident Newsvendors," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(9), pages 2803-2813, September.
  69. Indy Bernoster & Cornelius A. Rietveld & A. Roy Thurik & Olivier Torrès, 2018. "Overconfidence, Optimism and Entrepreneurship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, June.
  70. Flores, Lia Q. & Fonseca, Miguel A., 2024. "Do in-group biases lead to overconfidence in performance? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  71. Dan Bang & Rani Moran & Nathaniel D. Daw & Stephen M. Fleming, 2022. "Neurocomputational mechanisms of confidence in self and others," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
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