Unpacking the Future: A Nudge Toward Wider Subjective Confidence Intervals
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DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1696
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References listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
- Jordan Tong & Daniel Feiler, 2017. "A Behavioral Model of Forecasting: Naive Statistics on Mental Samples," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3609-3627, November.
- Te Bao & Brice Corgnet & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Katsuhiko Okada & Yohanes E. Riyanto & Jiahua Zhu, 2022. "Financial Forecasting in the Lab and the Field: Qualified Professionals vs. Smart Students," ISER Discussion Paper 1156r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Sep 2024.
- Chen, Zhi & Gaba, Anil & Tsetlin, Ilia & Winkler, Robert L., 2022. "Evaluating quantile forecasts in the M5 uncertainty competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1531-1545.
- Saemi Park & David V. Budescu, 2015. "Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(2), pages 130-143, March.
- Anil Gaba & Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Combining Interval Forecasts," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, March.
- Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2017. "Percentage and Relative Error Measures in Forecast Evaluation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 200-211, February.
- Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2017. "Percentage and Relative Error Measures in Forecast Evaluation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 200-211, February.
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas De Haan, 2022.
"Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions,"
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2022-01, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas de Haan, 2023. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Post-Print hal-04263759, HAL.
- Paolo Crosetto & Thomas de Haan, 2022. "Comparing input interfaces to elicit belief distributions," Working Papers halshs-03816349, HAL.
- Huisman, Ronald & Van der Sar, Nico L. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Volatility expectations and disagreement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 379-393.
- Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
- Steffen Keck & Wenjie Tang, 2018. "Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5877-5898, December.
- Moore, Don A. & Carter, Ashli B. & Yang, Heather H.J., 2015. "Wide of the mark: Evidence on the underlying causes of overprecision in judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 110-120.
- Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
- Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.
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Keywords
confidence intervals; overconfidence; time unpacking;All these keywords.
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