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Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages

Author

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  • Rietveld, C.A.
  • Groenen, P.J.F.
  • Koellinger, Ph.D.
  • van der Loos, M.J.H.M.
  • Thurik, A.R.

Abstract

Overconfidence has been proposed as an explanation for excess market entry by entrepreneurs and low returns in entrepreneurial activities. However, establishing that entrepreneurs are more overconfident than non-entrepreneurs requires the use of representative population samples; in addition, econometric endogeneity issues in survey data must be addressed. To overcome these methodological challenges, we use a measure of overconfidence that employs self-reports of life expectancy. These self-reports are compared to actual life spans in a large sample of the US population. We show that entrepreneurs are indeed more overconfident than non-entrepreneurs. By using fixed-effects panel regression—and thus by exploiting the longitudinal nature of our data—we provide evidence that changes in entrepreneurial status are not associated with changes in subjective life expectancy. These two findings in combination offer evidence that overconfident individuals self- select into entrepreneurship.

Suggested Citation

  • Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:40673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jahangir Yadollahi Farsi & Pouria Nouri & Abdolah Ahmadi Kafeshani, 2016. "Identifying Decision Making Biases in Entrepreneurial Opportunity Exploitation Decisions," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(5), pages 158-163, May.
    2. Kambiz Talebi & Pouria Nouri & Abdolah Ahmadi Kafeshani, 2014. "Identifying the main Individual Factors Influencing Entrepreneurial Decision making Biases: A Qualitative Content Analysis Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(8), pages 1-11, August.
    3. Viktorija Ilieva & Thomas Brudermann & Ljubomir Drakulevski, 2018. "“Yes, we know!” (Over)confidence in general knowledge among Austrian entrepreneurs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, May.
    4. Jahangir Yadollahi Farsi & Pouria Nouri & Abdolah Ahmadi Kafeshani & Mohamad Taghi Toghraee, 2014. "Identifying the Main Factors Influencing the Formation of Overconfidence Bias in Entrepreneurs: A Qualitative Content Analysis Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 456-469, April.
    5. Indy Bernoster & Cornelius A. Rietveld & A. Roy Thurik & Olivier Torrès, 2018. "Overconfidence, Optimism and Entrepreneurship," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; life expectancy; overconfidence; selection; self-employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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