IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v13y2022i1d10.1038_s41467-022-31674-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Neurocomputational mechanisms of confidence in self and others

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Bang

    (University College London
    University of Oxford)

  • Rani Moran

    (University College London
    University College London)

  • Nathaniel D. Daw

    (Princeton University)

  • Stephen M. Fleming

    (University College London
    University College London
    University College London)

Abstract

Computing confidence in one’s own and others’ decisions is critical for social success. While there has been substantial progress in our understanding of confidence estimates about oneself, little is known about how people form confidence estimates about others. Here, we address this question by asking participants undergoing fMRI to place bets on perceptual decisions made by themselves or one of three other players of varying ability. We show that participants compute confidence in another player’s decisions by combining distinct estimates of player ability and decision difficulty – allowing them to predict that a good player may get a difficult decision wrong and that a bad player may get an easy decision right. We find that this computation is associated with an interaction between brain systems implicated in decision-making (LIP) and theory of mind (TPJ and dmPFC). These results reveal an interplay between self- and other-related processes during a social confidence computation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Bang & Rani Moran & Nathaniel D. Daw & Stephen M. Fleming, 2022. "Neurocomputational mechanisms of confidence in self and others," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31674-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31674-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31674-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-022-31674-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Koosha Khalvati & Roozbeh Kiani & Rajesh P. N. Rao, 2021. "Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge explains perceptual confidence and its deviations from accuracy," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Dominic D. P. Johnson & James H. Fowler, 2011. "The evolution of overconfidence," Nature, Nature, vol. 477(7364), pages 317-320, September.
    4. Uri Hertz & Stefano Palminteri & Silvia Brunetti & Cecilie Olesen & Chris D Frith & Bahador Bahrami, 2017. "Neural computations underpinning the strategic management of influence in advice giving," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Yaniv, Ilan, 2004. "Receiving other people's advice: Influence and benefit," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-13, January.
    6. Timothy E. J. Behrens & Laurence T. Hunt & Mark W. Woolrich & Matthew F. S. Rushworth, 2008. "Associative learning of social value," Nature, Nature, vol. 456(7219), pages 245-249, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patt, Anthony G. & Bowles, Hannah Riley & Cash, David W., 2006. "Mechanisms for Enhancing the Credibility of an Adviser: Prepayment and Aligned Incentives," Working Paper Series rwp06-010, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    2. Gino, Francesca, 2008. "Do we listen to advice just because we paid for it? The impact of advice cost on its use," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 234-245, November.
    3. Ray Saadaoui Mallek & Mohamed Albaity, 2019. "Individual differences and cognitive reflection across gender and nationality the case of the United Arab Emirates," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1567965-156, January.
    4. Kai Barron, 2021. "Belief updating: does the ‘good-news, bad-news’ asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 31-58, March.
    5. Palmeira, Mauricio, 2020. "Advice in the presence of external cues: The impact of conflicting judgments on perceptions of expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 82-96.
    6. Louis Lévy-Garboua & Muniza Askari & Marco Gazel, 2018. "Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 84(3), pages 453-482, May.
    7. George I. Christopoulos & Xiao-Xiao Liu & Ying-yi Hong, 2017. "Toward an Understanding of Dynamic Moral Decision Making: Model-Free and Model-Based Learning," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 144(4), pages 699-715, September.
    8. Leiby, Justin, 2018. "The role of consultants and management prestige in management control system adoption," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-13.
    9. Olivier Gossner & Jakub Steiner, 2016. "Optimal Illusion of Control and Related Perception Biases," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 276, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    10. Kai Barron & Christina Gravert, 2022. "Confidence and Career Choices: An Experiment," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(1), pages 35-68, January.
    11. Herold, Florian & Netzer, Nick, 2023. "Second-best probability weighting," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 112-125.
    12. Newark, Daniel A., 2014. "Indecision and the construction of self," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 162-174.
    13. Andreas Richter & Jochen Ruß & Stefan Schelling, 2019. "Insurance customer behavior: Lessons from behavioral economics," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 183-205, July.
    14. Hans-Rüdiger Pfister & Gisela Böhm, 2008. "The multiplicity of emotions: A framework of emotional functions in decision making," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 3, pages 5-17, January.
    15. repec:cup:judgdm:v:3:y:2008:i::p:5-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Clayton Arlen Looney & Andrew M. Hardin, 2009. "Decision Support for Retirement Portfolio Management: Overcoming Myopic Loss Aversion via Technology Design," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(10), pages 1688-1703, October.
    17. Uri Hertz & Bahador Bahrami & Mehdi Keramati, 2018. "Stochastic satisficing account of confidence in uncertain value-based decisions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, April.
    18. Rémi Philippe & Rémi Janet & Koosha Khalvati & Rajesh P. N. Rao & Daeyeol Lee & Jean-Claude Dreher, 2024. "Neurocomputational mechanisms involved in adaptation to fluctuating intentions of others," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    19. Cronqvist, Henrik & Siegel, Stephan, 2014. "The genetics of investment biases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 215-234.
    20. Perera, H. Niles & Hurley, Jason & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen, 2019. "The human factor in supply chain forecasting: A systematic review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(2), pages 574-600.
    21. Elhem Ben Fatma & Ezzeddine Ben Mohamed & Léo-Paul Dana & Sami Boudabbous, 2021. "Does entrepreneurs’ psychology affect their business venture success? Empirical findings from North Africa," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 921-962, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31674-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.