IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v91y2024ics1057521923005057.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The contagion effect of overconfidence in business group

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Peng
  • Vochozka, Marek
  • Niu, Siqian

Abstract

Overconfidence is a common psychological phenomenon among individuals. Business groups are important participants in China. This paper combines these two important topics by studying the effects of overconfidence contagion effects in the business group. Based on the 2007–2019 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share group holding listed companies' hand-collected samples, this paper proves that if one group member shows overconfidence, the other members are more likely to be overconfidence in the next year, proving that there is overconfidence contagion effect within the business group. Further analyses find that the sociological theory, the psychological theory, and the business group theory can explain the mechanism of the contagion effect of overconfidence. Besides, this paper also finds that from macro to micro, there are many factors may influence this effect. Our findings not only enrich research on contagion effects in the business group, but also provide empirical evidence that why overconfidence has become a widespread psychological phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Peng & Vochozka, Marek & Niu, Siqian, 2024. "The contagion effect of overconfidence in business group," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s1057521923005057
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102989
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521923005057
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2023.102989?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anwer S. Ahmed & Scott Duellman, 2013. "Managerial Overconfidence and Accounting Conservatism," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(1), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August.
    3. Stein, Jeremy C, 1997. "Internal Capital Markets and the Competition for Corporate Resources," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 111-133, March.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. Andrea Giovannetti, 2021. "How does bank credit affect the shape of business groups' internal capital markets?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(10), pages 1621-1645, October.
    6. Dominic D. P. Johnson & James H. Fowler, 2011. "The evolution of overconfidence," Nature, Nature, vol. 477(7364), pages 317-320, September.
    7. Sushil Bikhchandani & Sunil Sharma, 2001. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(3), pages 1-1.
    8. Anand M. Goel & Anjan V. Thakor, 2008. "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2737-2784, December.
    9. Proeger, Till & Meub, Lukas, 2014. "Overconfidence as a social bias: Experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 203-207.
    10. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    11. Kennedy, Jessica A. & Anderson, Cameron & Moore, Don A., 2013. "When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 266-279.
    12. Stephen V. Burks & Jeffrey P. Carpenter & Lorenz Goette & Aldo Rustichini, 2013. "Overconfidence and Social Signalling," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(3), pages 949-983.
    13. Lin, James Juichia & Yeh, Yin-Hua, 2020. "Internal capital markets, ownership structure, and investment efficiency: Evidence from Taiwanese business groups," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    14. Tarun Khanna & Yishay Yafeh, 2007. "Business Groups in Emerging Markets: Paragons or Parasites?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 331-372, June.
    15. Sun, Helin & Cappa, Francesco & Zhu, Jia & Peruffo, Enzo, 2023. "The effect of CEO social capital, CEO duality and state-ownership on corporate innovation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    16. Schrand, Catherine M. & Zechman, Sarah L.C., 2012. "Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 311-329.
    17. Hardies, Kris & Breesch, Diane & Branson, Joël, 2013. "Gender differences in overconfidence and risk taking: Do self-selection and socialization matter?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 442-444.
    18. Albert Banal-Estañol & Marco Ottaviani & Andrew Winton, 2013. "The Flip Side of Financial Synergies: Coinsurance Versus Risk Contamination," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(12), pages 3142-3181.
    19. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
    20. Kolay, Madhuparna & Lemmon, Michael & Tashjian, Elizabeth, 2016. "Spreading the Misery? Sources of Bankruptcy Spillover in the Supply Chain," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(6), pages 1955-1990, December.
    21. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    22. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    23. Chiu, Wan-Chien & Peña, Juan Ignacio & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2015. "Industry characteristics and financial risk contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 411-427.
    24. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    25. Martin Plöckinger & Ewald Aschauer & Martin R.W. Hiebl & Roman Rohatschek, 2016. "The influence of individual executives on corporate financial reporting: A review and outlook from the perspective of upper echelons theory," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75, October.
    26. Paul Hribar & Holly Yang, 2016. "CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(1), pages 204-227, March.
    27. Sun, Qian & Cheng, Xiaoke & Gao, Shenghao & Yang, Mingjing, 2020. "Are SEO investors misled by analyst optimism bias? Evidence from investor bids in SEO auctions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 90-104.
    28. Chen, Yenn-Ru & Ho, Keng-Yu & Yeh, Chia-Wei, 2020. "CEO overconfidence and corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Han, Huanfa & Liu, Cuiping & Li, Jing, 2024. "Managerial overconfidence and stock price crash risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kouaib, Amel & Jarboui, Anis, 2017. "The mediating effect of REM on the relationship between CEO overconfidence and subsequent firm performance moderated by IFRS adoption: A moderated-mediation analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 338-352.
    2. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
    3. Theophilus Lartey & Albert Danso, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and debt covenant violations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 162-199, March.
    4. Jennifer Kunz & Lara Sonnenholzner, 2023. "Managerial overconfidence: promoter of or obstacle to organizational resilience?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 67-128, January.
    5. Sanaz Aghazadeh & Lili Sun & Qian Wang & Rong Yang, 2018. "Investors’ perception of CEO overconfidence: evidence from the cost of equity capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1129-1150, November.
    6. Johannes Brunzel, 2021. "Overconfidence and narcissism among the upper echelons: a systematic literature review," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 71(3), pages 585-623, July.
    7. Killins, Robert & Ngo, Thanh & Wang, Hongxia, 2021. "Goodwill impairment and CEO overconfidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    8. Rong Gong, 2023. "CEO overconfidence and the tone of press release," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 2081-2108, June.
    9. Kim, Mindy (Hyo Jung), 2021. "Effects of managerial overconfidence and ability on going-concern decisions and auditor turnover," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Jeon, Heung-Jae, 2023. "CEO overconfidence: A dual-detriment to investment-price sensitivity via market negligence and reduced informed trading," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3).
    11. Aghazadeh, Sanaz & Joe, Jennifer R., 2022. "Auditors' response to management confidence and misstatement risk," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    12. Chen, Po-Jung & Hsu, Ching-Yu, 2022. "CEO optimism, CEO selection, compensation, and corporate investment decision: The case of CEOs who were rehired as CEOs by another firms after turnover," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Ali Ataullah & Andrew Vivian & Bin Xu, 2018. "Optimistic Disclosure Tone and Conservative Debt Policy," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(4), pages 445-484, December.
    14. Lin, Chih-Yung & Chen, Yehning & Ho, Po-Hsin & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2020. "CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Le, Anh-Tuan & Doan, Anh-Tuan & Lin, Kun-Li, 2024. "CEO overconfidence and the informativeness of bank stock prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    16. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lin, Chih-Yung & Sun, Jiong, 2022. "The impact of overconfident customers on supplier firm risks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 115-133.
    17. Phua, Kenny & Tham, T. Mandy & Wei, Chishen, 2018. "Are overconfident CEOs better leaders? Evidence from stakeholder commitments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 519-545.
    18. Lin Li & Wilson H. S. Tong, 2022. "Who shall succeed? An examination of manager overconfidence and CEO selection," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(9-10), pages 1736-1783, October.
    19. Weifeng Xu & Qingsong Ruan & Chang Liu, 2019. "Can the Famous University Experience of Top Managers Improve Corporate Performance? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Juwon Jang & Eunju Lee, 2024. "CEO confidence matters: the real effects of short sale constraints revisited," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 603-636, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s1057521923005057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.