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Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination

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Cited by:

  1. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
  3. Din 祲 Afat & Marta G -Puig & Sim osvilla-Rivero, 2015. "The failure of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(43), pages 4607-4629, September.
  4. Giancarlo Gandolfo & Alberto Felettigh, 1998. "The NATREX: an Alternative Approach Theory and Empirical Verifications," Working Papers 52, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
  5. Costantini, Mauro & Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Hlouskova, Jaroslava, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Economics Series 305, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  6. Awad, Taleb Mohammad, 1987. "International monetary and exchange rate policies and world agricultural markets: the case of soybeans and soybean products," ISU General Staff Papers 198701010800009611, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Exchange rates, inflation, and the sterilization problem: Germany, 1975-1981," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 161-189.
  8. Strauß, Hubert, 2001. "Cointegration Analysis in an Inflationary Environment: What Can We Learn from Ukraine's Nominal Exports?," Kiel Working Papers 1084, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  9. José F. Alonso & Armando M. Lago, 1995. "A First Approximation Model of Money, Prices and Exchange Rates in Revolutionary Cuba," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 5.
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Tariffs, Terms or Trade, and The Real Exchange Rate in and Intertemporal Optimizing Model of the Current Account," UCLA Economics Working Papers 429, UCLA Department of Economics.
  11. Dal Bianco, Marcos & Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 377-396.
  12. Niko Hauzenberger & Florian Huber, 2020. "Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 168-186, March.
  13. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  14. Adrien Verdelhan, 2018. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 375-418, February.
  15. J Gerson & S. B. Kahn, 1988. "Factors Determining Real Exchange Rate Change in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 56(2‐3), pages 76-83, June.
  16. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
  17. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
  18. Alan L. Tucker & David R. Peterson & Elton Scott, 1988. "Tests Of The Black-Scholes And Constant Elasticity Of Variance Currency Call Option Valuation Models," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(3), pages 201-214, September.
  19. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  20. Afees A. Salisu & Umar B. Ndako, 2017. "A new look at the stock price-exchange rate nexus," Working Papers 031, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  21. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  22. Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Eli Hadad Junior, 2016. "Is It Possible to Beat the Random Walk Model in Exchange Rate Forecasting? More Evidence for Brazilian Case," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 14(1), pages 65-88.
  23. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
  24. John Williamson, 2009. "Exchange Rate Economics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 123-146, February.
  25. Peter Isard, 1983. "An Accounting Framework and Some Issues for Modeling How Exchange Rates Respond to the News," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 19-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Parity and the USD/COP Echange Rate," Borradores de Economia 227, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  27. Simon Neaime, 2000. "A Perspective on the Future Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: Implications for the Peripheral Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 2032, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2000.
  28. Schinasi, Garry J. & Swamy, P. A. V. B., 1989. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 375-390, September.
  29. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
  30. Fadia Al Hajj & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2021. "Exchange rate policy and external vulnerabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa: nominal, real or mixed targeting?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 380-399, January.
  31. R. Scott Hacker & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer Månsson, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: A Wavelet Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1162-1185, September.
  32. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
  33. Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 65290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. Kam-hon CHU & Bob Y. C. Chan & Chor-yiu Sin, 2000. "Contagion Effects, Informational Effects, and Economic Fundamentals: An Analysis of Exchange Rate Dynamics during the Asian Currency Crisis," Working Papers 022000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  35. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  36. Bas Aarle & Michael Boss & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2000. "Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector error correction models," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 232-258, June.
  37. Miksjuk Alexei, 2011. "Study the relation between monetary and exchange rate policy: The case of Belarus," EERC Working Paper Series 11/16e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  38. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
  39. Li, Kui-Wai & Wong, Douglas K T, 2011. "The Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Differential Relationship: Evidence from Two Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 35297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Anton Kuzmin, 2022. "Mathematical Exchange Rates Modeling: Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Dynamics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(24), pages 1-19, December.
  41. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  42. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ines Fortin & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2018. "Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 519-540, August.
  43. Rausser, Gordon C., 1985. "Macroeconomics and U.S. agricultural policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt9411m70q, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
  44. Rituparna Kar & Nityananda Sarkar, 2006. "Mean and volatility dynamics of Indian rupee/US dollar exchange rate series: an empirical investigation," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(1), pages 41-69, March.
  45. Goldberg, Michael D., 1995. "Symmetry restrictions and the semblance of neutrality in exchange rate models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 579-599.
  46. Mariam Camarero & Javier Ordóñez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2002. "The Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate: Is it Fundamental?," CESifo Working Paper Series 798, CESifo.
  47. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
  48. Giulio Cifarelli, 1995. "Fundamentals, regime shifts, and dollar behavior in the 1980s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 29-48, January.
  49. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2004. "How well can monetary factors explain the exchange rate of the euro?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 233-244, September.
  50. Shaista Alam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt & Azhar Iqbal, 2001. "The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 577-602.
  51. Jae-Kwang Hwang, 2001. "Dynamic forecasting of monetary exchange rate models: Evidence from cointegration," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 51-64, February.
  52. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
  53. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  54. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Kim, Won Joong, 2022. "Exchange rate predictability with nine alternative models for BRICS countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  55. Sam Olofin & Olusanya Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Alarudeen Aminu & Uwatt B. Uwatt & Micheal A. Adebiyi, 2017. "Revision of the small macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy," Working Papers 032, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
  56. Hyeyoen Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rate from Combination Taylor Rule Fundamental," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 81-92, September.
  57. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "The Monetary Models of the Turkish Lira/U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Long-run Relationships, Short-run Dynamics, and Forecasting," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 43-63, January.
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  59. Balázs Égert, 2010. "The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals, Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 655-677, November.
  60. Danglun Luo & Qianwei Ying, 2014. "Political Connections and Bank Lines of Credit," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(03), pages 5-21, May.
  61. Peter Rowland, 2003. "Forecasting The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate: A Random Walk With A Variable Drift," Borradores de Economia 2736, Banco de la Republica.
  62. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo.
  63. Oscar Bajo Rubio & María Dolores Montávez Garcés, 1998. "Tipo de cambio, expectativas y nueva información: evidencia para el caso de la peseta, 1986-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
  64. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
  65. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Kühl, Michael, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  66. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2011. "The real uncovered interest parity: The case of Canada and the USA," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-267, March.
  67. William A. Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2011. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 5, pages 151-166, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  68. Song, Chi-Young, 1997. "The Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account Balance in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 143-184, June.
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  70. Threemonkong, Attapol, 1992. "An intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium model of exchange rates and external imbalances," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000012961, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  71. Chun-Teck Lye & Tze-Haw Chan & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2012. "Nonlinear Analysis Of Chinese And Malaysian Exchange Rates Predictability With Monetary Fundamentals," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 5(1), pages 38-49, July.
  72. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
  73. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
  74. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
  75. Moura, Marcelo L. & Lima, Adauto R. S., 2007. "Empirical exchange rate models fit: Evidence from the Brazilian economy," Insper Working Papers wpe_87, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  76. Hadj Amor Thouraya & El Araj Rita, 2009. "Long Term Dynamic of Real Exchange Rate, Trade Liberalization and Financial Integration: The Case of South-East Mediterranean Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(1), pages 73-93, March.
  77. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
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  79. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
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  81. Murphy, Austin, 2008. "An empirical investigation of investor expectations in the currency market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 108-133.
  82. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2002. "A panel cointegration approach to the estimation of the peseta real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-393, September.
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  85. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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