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Tariffs, Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate in an Intertemporal Optimizing Model of the Current Account

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  • Sebastian Edwards

Abstract

In this paper a minimal general equilibrium intertemporal model, with optimizing consumers and producers, is developed to analyze the process of real exchange rate determination. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that produces and consumes three goods each period. The model is also used to analyze the way in which the current account responds to several shocks. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of two disturbances: the imposition of import tariffs, and external terms of trade shocks. In the case of import tariffs, a distinction is made between temporary, anticipated, and permanent changes. It is shown that, without imposing rigidities or adjustment costs, interesting paths for the equilibrium real exchange rate can be generated. In particular "overshooting" and movements in opposite directions in periods one and two can be observed. Precise conditions under which temporary import tariffs will improve the current account are derived. Finally, several ways in which the model can be extended to take into account other issues such as changes in the fiscal deficit, and financial deregulation are discussed in detail.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Tariffs, Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate in an Intertemporal Optimizing Model of the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 2175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2175
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    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 1982. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 97(2), pages 251-270.
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    6. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Current Account Dynamics and the Terms of Trade: Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Two Generations Later," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 43-65, February.
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    8. Sebastian Edwards & Liaquat Ahamed, 1986. "Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa86-1.
    9. Harry G. Johnson, 1966. "A Model of Protection and the Exchange Rate," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 33(2), pages 159-163.
    10. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1986. "The Welfare Effects of Trade and Capital Market Liberalization," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 141-148, February.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1974. "Tariffs and nontraded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-185, May.
    13. Michael L. Mussa, 1986. "The Effects of Commercial, Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Policies on the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 43-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. J. Peter Neary, 1985. "International Factor Mobility, Minimum Wage Rates, and Factor-Price Equalization: A Synthesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(3), pages 551-570.
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    Cited by:

    1. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1991. "Tariffs and sectoral adjustments in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-89.
    2. Sen, Partha & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1989. "Tariffs, Capital Accumulation, and the Current Account in a Small Open Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 811-831, November.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1992. "Terms of Trade Disturbances, Real Exchange Rates, and Welfare: The Role of Capital Controls and Labor Market Distortions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 20-34, January.
    4. Harms, Philipp, 2001. "Deregulation and the current account," Discussion Papers, Series I 315, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    5. Kemme, David M. & Roy, Saktinil, 2006. "Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 207-230, October.
    6. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    7. Roberto Duncan, 2003. "The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect Revisited: An Indirect-Utility-Function Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 250, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Kam Leong Szeto & Paul Gardiner & Richard Gray & David Hargreaves, 2003. "A Comparison of the NZTM and FPS Models of the New Zealand Economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/25, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Raimundo Soto, "undated". "El Tipo de Cambio Real de Equilibrio: Un modelo no lineal de Series de Tiempo," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv094, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    10. Kam Leong Szeto, 2002. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Tabellini, Guido, 1990. "Domestic politics and the international coordination of fiscal policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 245-265, May.
    12. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Igal Magendzo, 2009. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter For Inflation And Exchange Rate Dynamics? The Case Of Central America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 517, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Elbadawi, Ibrahim A & Soto, Raimundo, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Sub-Saharan Africa and Other Developing Countries," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 6(3), pages 74-120, Supplemen.
    14. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.

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