IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/2032.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Perspective on the Future Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: Implications for the Peripheral Mediterranean Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Simon Neaime

    (Department of Economics/Institute of Financial Economics, American University of Beirut)

Abstract

This study examines some of the factors that may constitute the main determinants of the dollar-euro exchange rate. The implications of the introduction of the single currency in Europe on Mediterranean central banks reserves and foreign external liabilities are examined, along with trade and capital flows, and exchange rate policies. It is shown that Mediterranean central banks will have to hold major portions of their foreign exchange reserves in euros. Also, a Mediterranean currency peg to the euro, or to a basket of currencies where the euro is allocated the highest weight will be important in reducing financial and trade transaction costs. It is also hypothesized that Mediterranean foreign debts will eventually have to be converted to euros as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Neaime, 2000. "A Perspective on the Future Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate: Implications for the Peripheral Mediterranean Countries," Working Papers 2032, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 2000.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:2032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2032_Naime.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://bit.ly/2qBAmTn
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Vehicle Currencies and the Structure of International Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 513-526, August.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Kenen, Peter B, 1997. "Preferences, Domains, and Sustainability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 211-213, May.
    4. Corden, W. Max, 1995. "Economic Policy, Exchange Rates, and the International System," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226115917, December.
    5. Neil Wallace, 1990. "Why markets in foreign exchange are different from other markets," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 14(Win), pages 12-18.
    6. Ghosh, Atish R., 1992. "Is it signalling? Exchange intervention and the dollar-Deutschemark rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 201-220, May.
    7. Benjamin J. Cohen, 1971. "The Seigniorage Gain of an International Currency: An Empirical Test," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 85(3), pages 494-507.
    8. Cesarano, Filippo, 1985. "On the viability of monetary unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 367-374, November.
    9. Onofri, Paolo, 1990. "Modeling international interdependence : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 155-164, January.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
    11. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don E, 1981. "Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 12-30, February.
    12. Black, Stanley W., 1985. "International money and international monetary arrangements," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1153-1193, Elsevier.
    13. Giovannini, Alberto, 1994. "Monetary policy, liquidity, and foreign exchange markets: An exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 63-86, February.
    14. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    15. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1985. "Floating exchange rates with liquidity constraints in financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 99-117, August.
    16. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    17. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    19. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    20. Arman Mansoorian & Simon Neaime, 2000. "Habits and Durability in Consumption, and the Effects of Tariff Protection," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 195-204, July.
    21. Brittain, Bruce, 1981. "International Currency Substitution and the Apparent Instability of Velocity in Some Western European Economies and in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(2), pages 135-155, May.
    22. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    23. Husted, Steven, 1992. "The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 159-166, February.
    24. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
    25. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    26. Allen, Stuart D & Connolly, Robert A, 1989. "Financial Market Effects on Aggregate Money Demand: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 158-175, May.
    27. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-541, June.
    28. Niehans, Jurg, 1977. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Stock/Flow Interaction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1245-1257, December.
    29. Mr. Mounir Rached & Mr. Saleh M. Nsouli, 1998. "Capital Account Liberalization in the Southern Mediterranean Region," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 1998/011, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Pentti J.K. Kouri & Jorge B. de Macedo, 1978. "Exchange Rates and the International Adjustment Process," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 488, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    31. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Neaime, Simon & Paschakis, John, 2002. "The future of the dollar-euro exchange rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 56-71, May.
    2. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    4. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    5. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:50:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau, 2002. "Excess returns, portfolio choices and exchange rate dynamics. The yen/dollar case, 1980–1998," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 233-256, July.
    10. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Chérif touil, Noreddine & Maliki, Samir, 2015. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic," MPRA Paper 75285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
    12. William A. Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2011. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 5, pages 151-166, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    14. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    15. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    16. David O. Cushman, 2007. "A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian–U.S. exchange rate," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 305-320.
    17. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    18. Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2001. "Exchange risk premia, expectations formation and "news" in the Mexican peso/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 157-174.
    19. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    20. Medel, Carlos & Camilleri, Gilmour & Hsu, Hsiang-Ling & Kania, Stefan & Touloumtzoglou, Miltiadis, 2015. "Robustness in Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Economics-based Modelling After the Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 65290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:2032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.