IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v56y2019i4d10.1007_s00181-017-1395-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The common component of bilateral US exchange rates: to what is it related?

Author

Listed:
  • Natalia Ponomareva

    (Macquarie University)

  • Jeffrey Sheen

    (Macquarie University)

  • Ben Zhe Wang

    (Macquarie University)

Abstract

Using principal component analysis, we identify a common component driving a panel of 15 monthly bilateral exchange rates against the US dollar. We find this common (first principal) component is related to the fundamentals commonly used in exchange rate determination models, such as US nominal and real macroeconomic variables, financial market variables and commodity prices. We obtain the relevant set of fundamentals using the Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) technique and find that this set changes over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalia Ponomareva & Jeffrey Sheen & Ben Zhe Wang, 2019. "The common component of bilateral US exchange rates: to what is it related?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1251-1268, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1395-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-017-1395-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-017-1395-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-017-1395-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
    2. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    3. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
    4. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
    5. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
    7. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    8. Goldberg, Linda S. & Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 177-192, December.
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. Sjaastad, Larry A. & Scacciavillani, Fabio, 1996. "The price of gold and the exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 879-897, December.
    11. Kamps, Annette, 2006. "The euro as invoicing currency in international trade," Working Paper Series 665, European Central Bank.
    12. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    13. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-593, September.
    14. Della Corte, Pasquale & Ramadorai, Tarun & Sarno, Lucio, 2016. "Volatility risk premia and exchange rate predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 21-40.
    15. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    16. Michael B. Devereux & Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2010. "Oil Currency and the Dollar Standard: A Simple Analytical Model of an International Trade Currency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 521-550, June.
    17. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie, 2014. "The VIX, the variance premium and stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 181-192.
    18. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    19. Hossfeld, Oliver & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Carry funding and safe haven currencies: A threshold regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 185-202.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    21. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2015. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 32-55, February.
    22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    23. Molodtsova, Tanya & Papell, David H., 2009. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 167-180, April.
    24. Chauvet, Marcelle & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 42-49, January.
    25. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.
    27. Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Roll, Richard, 2011. "Gold and the Dollar (and the Euro, Pound, and Yen)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2070-2083, August.
    28. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2012. "Exchange Rates as Exchange Rate Common Factors," Working Papers 212012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    29. Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 329-341, October.
    30. Hooper, Peter & Morton, John, 1982. "Fluctuations in the dollar: A model of nominal and real exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-56, January.
    31. Michael Mussa, 1977. "The Exchange Rate, The Balance Of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under A Regime of Controlled Floating," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jan Herin & Assar Lindbeck & Johan Myhrman (ed.), Flexible Exchange Rates and Stabilization Policy, pages 97-116, Palgrave Macmillan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time‐varying parameters," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2836-2848, July.
    2. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    4. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2019. "Forecasting exchange rates using principal components," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Long Hai Vo, 2021. "Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 21-01, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Long Hai Vo, 2023. "Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 443-473, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben, 2015. "The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?," MPRA Paper 68966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2018. "On The Sources Of Uncertainty In Exchange Rate Predictability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 329-357, February.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2019. "Forecasting exchange rates using principal components," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    5. Ren, Yu & Liang, Xuanxuan & Wang, Qin, 2021. "Short-term exchange rate forecasting: A panel combination approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    7. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-24, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Liu, Li & Tan, Siming & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Can commodity prices forecast exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. David Alan Peel & Pantelis Promponas, 2016. "Forecasting the nominal exchange rate movements in a changing world. The case of the U.S. and the U.K," Working Papers 144439514, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    10. Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2017. "Selecting exchange rate fundamentals by bootstrap," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 894-914.
    11. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability: A variable selection perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 117-134.
    12. Kouwenberg, Roy & Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Verhoeks, Ralph & Zwinkels, Remco C. J., 2017. "Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, February.
    13. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    15. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    17. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wang, Wenhao, 2022. "Uncovered interest rate parity redux: Non-uniform effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-151.
    19. Huang, Huichou & MacDonald, Ronald & Zhao, Yang, 2012. "Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Downside Insurance Costs," MPRA Paper 53745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Nov 2013.
    20. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Principal component analysis; Exchange rate models; Lasso; Commodities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:56:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1395-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.