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On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts
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Cited by:
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010.
"Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- Tara Sinclair & Frederick L. Joutz, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2008-06, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2023. "The accuracy and informativeness of agricultural baselines," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1116-1148, August.
- Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "A bootstrap-based efficiency test of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
- Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "A bootstrap test of the time-varying efficiency of German growth forecasts," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(1), pages 679-687.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012.
"A new approach for evaluating economic forecasts,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2332-2342.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-2, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "A New Approach For Evaluating Economic Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Teresa Leal & Javier J. Pérez & Mika Tujula & Jean-Pierre Vidal, 2008.
"Fiscal Forecasting: Lessons from the Literature and Challenges,"
Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 347-386, September.
- Leal, Teresa & Pérez, Javier J. & Tujula, Mika & Vidal, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Fiscal forecasting: lessons from the literature and challenges," Working Paper Series 843, European Central Bank.
- Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
- Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2014.
"Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: a German Forecasting Competition,"
CAMA Working Papers
2014-55, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts Of A Vector Of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Hans Christian Müller-Dröge & Herman Stekler, 2014. "Evaluating Forecasts of a Vector of Variables: A German Forecasting Competition," Working Papers 2014-17, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Revisiting the relative forecast performances of Fed staff and private forecasters: A dynamic approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 313-323.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2012. "Are professional forecasts of growth in US business investment rational?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 132-135.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2018. "Credibility and Inflation Expectations: What we can tell from seven emerging economies?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1165-1181.
- Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021.
"Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
8911, CESifo.
- Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," EconPol Working Paper 59, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
- Constantin Burgi, 2016. "What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?," Working Papers 2016-013, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Jones, Jacob T. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman O., 2020.
"A textual analysis of Bank of England growth forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1478-1487.
- Jacob T. Jones & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2018. "A Textual Analysis of the Bank of England Growth Forecasts," Working Papers 2018-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised May 2019.
- Loungani, Prakash, 2001.
"How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
- Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2000. "How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts: Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth," IMF Working Papers 2000/077, International Monetary Fund.
- Krkoska, Libor & Teksoz, Utku, 2007. "Accuracy of GDP growth forecasts for transition countries: Ten years of forecasting assessed," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 29-45.
- Sebastian Bayer & Timo Dimitriadis, 2022. "Regression-Based Expected Shortfall Backtesting [Backtesting Expected Shortfall]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 437-471.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2022. "Testing for the rationality of central bank interest rate forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1037-1078, March.
- MacDonald, Stephen & Ash, Mark & Cooke, Bryce, 2017. "The Evolution of Inefficiency in USDA’s Forecasts of U.S. and World Soybean Markets," MPRA Paper 87545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01087522, HAL.
- Jalles, João Tovar, 2017. "On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 175-189.
- Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008.
"Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs,"
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-12, April.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2007. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37562, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- Clatworthy, Mark A. & Peel, David A. & Pope, Peter F., 2007. "Evaluating the properties of analysts’ forecasts: A bootstrap approach," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-13.
- Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
- Jia, Pengfei & Shen, Haopeng & Zheng, Shikun, 2023. "Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
- Ullrich Heilemann & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Wenig Unterschiede – Zur Treffsicherheit Internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker [Few differences—on the accuracy of international forecasts and forecaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 195-233, December.
- Roland Döhrn, 2023.
"Are German National Accounts informationally efficient?,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 23-42, March.
- Döhrn, Roland, 2020. "Are German national accounts informational efficient?," Ruhr Economic Papers 880, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015.
"Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Karsten Müller, 2022. "German forecasters’ narratives: How informative are German business cycle forecast reports?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2373-2415, May.
- Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013.
"Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
- Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Herman O. Stekler, 2011. "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007.
"The Politics of IMF Forecasts,"
KOF Working papers
07-176, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 2129, CESifo.
- Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Raymond Vreeland, 2007. "The Politics of IMF Forecasts," Working Papers 124, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2007.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- Mills, Terence C. & Pepper, Gordon T., 1999. "Assessing the forecasters: an analysis of the forecasting records of the Treasury, the London Business School and the National Institute," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-257, July.
- Döpke, Jörg & Fritsche, Ulrich & Müller, Karsten, 2019. "Has macroeconomic forecasting changed after the Great Recession? Panel-based evidence on forecast accuracy and forecaster behavior from Germany," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ines Fortin & Sebastian P. Koch & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2020. "Evaluation of economic forecasts for Austria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 107-137, January.
- Pao‐Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2021.
"Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 686-712, June.
- Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2015. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2015-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
- Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Working Papers 2016-007, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Pao-Lin Tien & Tara M. Sinclair & Edward N. Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed forecast errors matter?," CAMA Working Papers 2016-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Tara Sinclair & Pao-Lin Tien & Edward Gamber, 2016. "Do Fed Forecast Errors Matter?," Working Papers 2016-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy, revised Aug 2018.
- Lixiong Yang, 2022. "Threshold mixed data sampling (TMIDAS) regression models with an application to GDP forecast errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 533-551, February.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Boris, Keith, 2009. "Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts: The DOE's energy price forecasts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-196.
- Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015.
"What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
- Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2017.
"How biased are U.S. government forecasts of the federal debt?,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 543-559.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Working Papers 2017-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2017. "How Biased Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1189, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Artur Tarassow & Sven Schreiber, 2018. "FEP - the forecast evaluation package for gretl," IMK Working Paper 190-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
- Brown, Jeff E. & Ethridge, Don E. & Hudson, Darren & Engels, Carlos, 1995.
"An Automated Econometric Approach for Estimating and Reporting Daily Cotton Market Prices,"
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(2), pages 409-422, December.
- Brown, Jeff E. & Ethridge, Don E. & Hudson, Darren & Engels, Carlos, 1995. "An Automated Econometric Approach For Estimating And Reporting Daily Cotton Market Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-14, December.
- Frank-Oliver Aldenhoff, 2007. "Are economic forecasts of the International Monetary Fund politically biased? A public choice analysis," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 239-260, September.
- Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007.
"Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2004. "Professional Forecasts of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's Panel of Economists," Working Paper Series 004, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
- Bürgi, Constantin, 2017. "Bias, rationality and asymmetric loss functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 113-116.
- Sinclair, Tara M., 2019.
"Characteristics and implications of Chinese macroeconomic data revisions,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1108-1117.
- Tara M. Sinclair, 2012. "Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions," Working Papers 2012-09, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Roland Döhrn, 2006. "Improving Business Cycle Forecasts’ Accuracy - What Can We Learn from Past Errors?," RWI Discussion Papers 0051, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
- Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
- Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
- Kuethe, Todd H. & Hubbs, Todd & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Evaluating the USDA’s Net Farm Income Forecast," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(3), September.
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017.
"Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(2), pages 213-236, June.
- Björn Kauder & Niklas Potrafke & Christoph Schinke, 2017. "Manipulating Fiscal Forecasts: Evidence from the German States," CESifo Working Paper Series 6310, CESifo.
- Eicher, Theo S. & Kuenzel, David J. & Papageorgiou, Chris & Christofides, Charis, 2019.
"Forecasts in times of crises,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1143-1159.
- Theo S. Eicher & David J. Kuenzel & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Charalambos Christofides, 2018. "Forecasts in Times of Crises," IMF Working Papers 2018/048, International Monetary Fund.
- Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2024. "Systemic bias of IMF reserve and debt forecasts for program countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 985-1001.
- Alexander Foltas & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022.
"Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(10), pages 867-872, June.
- Foltas, Alexander & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Business-cycle reports and the efficiency of macroeconomic forecasts for Germany," Working Papers 22, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Gerberding, Christina, 2001. "The information content of survey data on expected price developments for monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,09, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Carabotta, Laura & Paluzie, Elisenda & Ramos, Raul, 2017. "Does fiscal responsibility matter? Evidence from public and private forecasters in Italy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 694-706.
- H. O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2010.
"Evaluating current-year forecasts made during the year: a Japanese example,"
Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(7), pages 673-676.
- H.O. Stekler & Kazuta Sakamoto, 2008. "Evaluating Current Year Forecasts Made During the Year: A Japanese Example," Working Papers 2008-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & João Pedro Neves Maia, 2022. "Interest rate expectations based on Taylor rule versus central bank’s survey: which performs better in a large emerging economy?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4532-4544, August.
- Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "Thirty‐year assessment of Asian Development Bank's forecasts," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(2), pages 18-40, November.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2011. "Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 290-305, July.
- Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2016.
"Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2015-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- James Taylor & Derek Bunn, 1998. "Combining forecast quantiles using quantile regression: Investigating the derived weights, estimator bias and imposing constraints," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 193-206.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated".
"Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe,"
Working Papers
142, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," Economics Working Papers eco98/2, European University Institute.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1998. "Fiscal Solvency and Fiscal Forecasting in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 1836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Michael Clements, 2006. "Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 49-64, March.
- Behrens, Christoph, 2020. "German trade forecasts since 1970: An evaluation using the panel dimension," Working Papers 26, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
- Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017.
"Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
- Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Ulrich Fritsche & Jörg Döpke, 2005.
"Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy: A Non-Linear Relationship?,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
498, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Joerg Doepke, 2006. "Forecast errors and the macroeconomy — a non-linear relationship?," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200602, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
- Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary policy, imperfect information and the expectations channel [Politique monétaire,information imparfaite et canal des anticipations]," SciencePo Working papers Main tel-04095385, HAL.
- Dwight R. Sanders & Mark R. Manfredo, 2008.
"Multiple horizons and information in USDA production forecasts,"
Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 55-66.
- Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2006. "Multiple Horizons and Information in USDA Production Forecasts," 2006 Conference, April 17-18, 2006, St. Louis, Missouri 18997, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2024. "The bias of the ECB inflation projections: A State-dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2024, Bank of Finland.
- Laws, Jason & Thompson, John, 2004. "The efficiency of financial futures markets: Tests of prediction accuracy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 155(2), pages 284-298, June.
- Laura Carabotta, 2014. "Which Agency and Which Period is The Best? Analyzing National and International Fiscal Forecasts in Italy," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 27-46.
- Marcell Göttert & Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Tax Revenue Forecast Errors: Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9148, CESifo.
- Alexandra Heath & Ivan Roberts & Tim Bulman, 2004. "Inflation in Australia: Measurement and Modelling," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Simon Guttmann (ed.),The Future of Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers 2008-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Clements, Michael P. & Reade, J. James, 2020. "Forecasting and forecast narratives: The Bank of England Inflation Reports," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1488-1500.
- Ashiya, Masahiro, 2007. "Forecast accuracy of the Japanese government: Its year-ahead GDP forecast is too optimistic," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 68-85, January.
- Christopher Bajada, 2002.
"The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data,"
Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 35(3), pages 276-286, September.
- Chris Bajada, 2001. "The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data," Working Paper Series 110, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Breuer Christian, 2015.
"On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany,"
Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(1), pages 22-40, February.
- Christian Breuer, 2014. "On the Rationality of Medium-Term Tax Revenue Forecasts: Evidence from Germany," ifo Working Paper Series 176, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1997. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy: balance of payments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 969-987, December.
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O., 2013.
"Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 736-750.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler, 2011. "Examining the Quality of Early GDP Component Estimates," Working Papers 2011-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Dec 2011.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Baca, Adriana Cabrera, 2022. "Fiscal opacity and reduction of income inequality through taxation: Effects on economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 69-82.
- Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
- Jörg Döpke & Ulrich Fritsche & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Has Macroeconomic Forecasting changed after the Great Recession? - Panel-based Evidence on Accuracy and Forecaster Behaviour from Germany," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
- Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
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