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Are German national accounts informational efficient?

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  • Döhrn, Roland

Abstract

National accounts are subject to major revisions. To improve the reliability of the first release data, it is important to know whether these revisions show systematic patterns, or in other words, whether national accounts are informational efficient in the sense that they incorporate all information available in the data. This paper tests three dimensions of informational efficiency: weak efficiency, strong efficiency, and Nordhaus efficiency. The tests on weak efficiency find systematic patterns in the revisions. Tests on strong efficiency, however, do not provide a clear-cut picture, which kind of information can be used to reduce the extent of revisions. Finally, the tests on Nordhaus efficiency indicate that the revisions do not follow a time path.

Suggested Citation

  • Döhrn, Roland, 2020. "Are German national accounts informational efficient?," Ruhr Economic Papers 880, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:880
    DOI: 10.4419/96973019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony Garratt & Gary Koop & ShaunP. Vahey, 2008. "Forecasting Substantial Data Revisions in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 1128-1144, July.
    2. Robert York & Paul Atkinson, 1997. "The Reliability of Quarterly National Accounts in Seven Major Countries: A User's Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 171, OECD Publishing.
    3. Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
    4. Roland Döhrn, 2019. "Revisionen der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Prognosen [Revisions of national accounts data and their impact on forecasts]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 13(2), pages 99-123, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    national account; data revision; informational efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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