An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1002/jae.954
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby Pandey, 1996. "An evaluation of federal reserve forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 89-109.
- Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003.
"The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 684, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 2001-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Sheila Dolmas & Evan F. Koenig & Jeremy M. Piger, 2000. "The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting," Working Papers 0004, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001.
"Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 20-36.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC," CEPR Discussion Papers 2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Economics Working Papers eco99/22, European University Institute.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Holden, K & Peel, D A, 1990. "On Testing for Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Forecasts," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 58(2), pages 120-127, June.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006.
"Survey Expectations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776,
Elsevier.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001.
"A real-time data set for macroeconomists,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2003.
"A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 605-617, August.
- Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "A real-time data set for marcoeconomists: does the data vintage matter?," Working Papers 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Zellner, Arnold, 1986. "Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 45-48.
- Hsiao,Cheng & Pesaran,M. Hashem & Lahiri,Kajal & Lee,Lung Fei (ed.), 1999. "Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521631693, September.
- Karamouzis, Nicholas & Lombra, Raymond, 1989.
"Federal reserve policymaking: an overview and analysis of the policy process,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 7-62, January.
- Karamouzis, N. & Lombra, R., 1988. "Federal Reserve Policy Making: An Overview And Analysis Of The Policy Process," Papers 0-88-8, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Karamouzis, N. & Lombra, R., 1989. "Federal Reserve Policymaking: An Overview And Analisys Of The Policy Process," Papers 8-88-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-708, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kajal Lahiri, 2005. "Analysis of Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 1093-1095.
- Scotese, Carol A., 1994. "Forecast smoothing and the optimal under-utilization of information at the federal reserve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 653-670.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
- Davies, Anthony & Lahiri, Kajal, 1995. "A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 205-227, July.
- Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
- Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby P., 1999. "An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Reply," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 189-203, January.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1987.
"Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 667-674, November.
- William D. Nordhaus, 1985. "Forecasting Efficiency: Concepts and Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 774, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
- Clements, Michael P, 1995. "Rationality and the Role of Judgement in Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 410-420, March.
- Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Clements, Michael P., 2006.
"Internal consistency of survey respondentsíforecasts: Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters,"
Economic Research Papers
269742, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Capistrán, Carlos, 2008.
"Bias in Federal Reserve inflation forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve irrational or just cautious?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1415-1427, November.
- Carmona, Carlos Capistran, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6v28v0b6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
- Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Working Papers 2006-14, Banco de México.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2008. "Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts," Working Papers 2008-010, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Clements, Michael P., 2010.
"Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 870, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Clements, Michael P., 2008. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," Economic Research Papers 269881, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
- Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015.
"What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01087522, HAL.
- Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2024.
"Central bank forecasting: A survey,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 342-364, April.
- Carola Conces Binder & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2023. "Central Bank Forecasting: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 23-18, Bank of Canada.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, H.O. & Carnow, Warren, 2015.
"Evaluating a vector of the Fed’s forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 157-164.
- Tara M. Sinclair & H.O. Stekler & Warren Carnow, 2012. "Evaluating A Vector Of The Fed’S Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Tara Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler & Warren Carrow, 2012. "Evaluating a Vector of the Fed's Forecasts," Working Papers 2012-3, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
- Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
- Croushore Dean, 2010.
"An Evaluation of Inflation Forecasts from Surveys Using Real-Time Data,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, May.
- Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Michael P Clements, 2014. "Assessing the Evidence of Macro- Forecaster Herding: Forecasts of Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2011. "Federal Reserve and private forecasts of growth in investment," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(4), pages 290-305, July.
- Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
- Timmermann, Allan & Patton, Andrew, 2007. "Learning in Real Time: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the Term Structure of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 6526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew J. Patton & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "The Resolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Survey Forecast," CREATES Research Papers 2008-54, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Michael P. Clements, 2018. "Do Macroforecasters Herd?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 265-292, March.
More about this item
Lists
This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:- An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2007) in ReplicationWiki
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:22:y:2007:i:1:p:121-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.