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Are German National Accounts informationally efficient?

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  • Roland Döhrn

    (RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research)

Abstract

National accounts are subject to major revisions. To improve the reliability of first release data, it is important to know whether subsequent revisions show systematic patterns. Or, in other words, whether national accounts are informationally efficient in the sense that all available information is incorporated into the data. This paper used annual data to test three dimensions of informational efficiency: weak efficiency, strong efficiency, and Nordhaus efficiency. The weak efficiency tests found GDP revisions to be noise, whereas revisions of several GDP components showed systematic patterns. Strong efficiency tests found covariations of GDP revisions with some indicators. Business survey results in particular have the potential to reduce the extent of revisions. Finally, Nordhaus efficiency tests found some indication of revision stickiness.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland Döhrn, 2023. "Are German National Accounts informationally efficient?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 23-42, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:19:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s41549-022-00080-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s41549-022-00080-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    National account; Data revision; Informational efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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