IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cegedp/336.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A multicointegration model of global climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Bruns, Stephan B.
  • Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna
  • Stern, David I.

Abstract

We model the role of the ocean in climate change, using the concept of multicointegration. Surface temperature and radiative forcing cointegrate and the accumulated cointegration disequilibria represent the change in Earth system heat content, which is predominantly stored in the ocean. System heat content in turn cointegrates with surface temperature. Using a multicointegrating I(2) model, we find that the climate sensitivity is 2.8°C and the rate of adjustment to equilibrium is realistically slow. These results contrast strongly with those from I(1) cointegration models and are more consistent with global circulation models. We also estimate Earth system heat content as a latent variable for the full period, 1850-2014, and this predicted heat content cointegrates with available ocean heat content observations for 1940-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2018. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 336, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/173787/1/1012324591.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    2. Mark Richardson & Kevin Cowtan & Ed Hawkins & Martin B. Stolpe, 2016. "Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 931-935, October.
    3. Onatski, Alexei & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Unit Roots In White Noise," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(3), pages 485-508, June.
    4. Jeff Tollefson, 2014. "Climate change: The case of the missing heat," Nature, Nature, vol. 505(7483), pages 276-278, January.
    5. Kaufmann, R. K. & Kauppi, H. & Mann, M. L. & Stock, James H., 2011. "Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008," Scholarly Articles 29071926, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    6. Kyle C. Armour, 2017. "Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 331-335, May.
    7. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    8. Granger, C W J & Lee, T H, 1989. "Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Non-symmetric Error Correction Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages 145-159, Supplemen.
    9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    10. Peter J. Gleckler & Paul J. Durack & Ronald J. Stouffer & Gregory C. Johnson & Chris E. Forest, 2016. "Industrial-era global ocean heat uptake doubles in recent decades," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 394-398, April.
    11. Felix Pretis & Michael Mann & Robert Kaufmann, 2015. "Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 705-718, August.
    12. Edgerton, David & Wells, Curt, 1994. "Critical Values for the Cusumsq Statistic in Medium and Large Sized Samples," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(3), pages 355-365, August.
    13. Sandra M. Andersson & Bengt G. Martinsson & Jean-Paul Vernier & Johan Friberg & Carl A. M. Brenninkmeijer & Markus Hermann & Peter F. J. van Velthoven & Andreas Zahn, 2015. "Significant radiative impact of volcanic aerosol in the lowermost stratosphere," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, November.
    14. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "Multicointegration in US consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 819-833.
    15. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    16. Hans Christian Kongsted & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Analysing I(2) Systems by Transformed Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 379-397, July.
    17. Rahbek, Anders & Christian Kongsted, Hans & Jorgensen, Clara, 1999. "Trend stationarity in the I(2) cointegration model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 265-289, June.
    18. Christopher Hedemann & Thorsten Mauritsen & Johann Jungclaus & Jochem Marotzke, 2017. "The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(5), pages 336-339, May.
    19. Boswijk, H. Peter, 2010. "Mixed Normal Inference On Multicointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1565-1576, October.
    20. Vanessa Berenguer‐Rico & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2011. "Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 298-321, March.
    21. Pierre Perron & Eduardo Zorita & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Extracting and Analyzing the Warming Trend in Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 711-732, September.
    22. Kate Marvel & Gavin A. Schmidt & Ron L. Miller & Larissa S. Nazarenko, 2016. "Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 386-389, April.
    23. Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron & Benjamin Martinez-Lopez, 2013. "Statistically-derived contributions of diverse human influences to 20th century temperature changes," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    24. Niels Haldrup, 1998. "An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December.
    25. Kyle C. Armour, 2016. "Climate sensitivity on the rise," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(10), pages 896-897, October.
    26. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    27. James A. Duffy & David F. Hendry, 2017. "The impact of integrated measurement errors on modeling long-run macroeconomic time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 568-587, October.
    28. David Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Some Fallacies in Econometric Modelling of Climate Change," Economics Series Working Papers 643, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    29. Hassler, Uwe, 2007. "Multicointegration under measurement errors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 38-44, July.
    30. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values For Cointegration Tests," Working Paper 1227, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    31. Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie, 2013. "Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling," Nature, Nature, vol. 501(7467), pages 403-407, September.
    32. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:2:p:237-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Clive W. J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2006. "Dynamics of Model Overfitting Measured in terms of Autoregressive Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 347-365, May.
    34. Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998. "Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
    35. Robert Kaufmann & Heikki Kauppi & Michael Mann & James Stock, 2013. "Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 729-743, June.
    36. Thorsten Mauritsen & Robert Pincus, 2017. "Committed warming inferred from observations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 652-655, September.
    37. David O. Cushman, 2016. "A Unit Root in Postwar U.S. Real GDP Still Cannot Be Rejected, and Yes, It Matters," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 13(1), pages 1-5–45, January.
    38. Felix Pretis, 2015. "Econometric Models of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Two-Component Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated VARs," Economics Series Working Papers 750, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    39. Achim Zeileis, 2004. "Alternative boundaries for CUSUM tests," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 123-131, January.
    40. Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
    41. David Stern & Robert Kaufmann, 2014. "Anthropogenic and natural causes of climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 257-269, January.
    42. Kongsted, Hans Christian, 2005. "Testing the nominal-to-real transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 205-225, February.
    43. repec:bla:jecsur:v:12:y:1998:i:5:p:573-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
    45. Peter M. Cox & Chris Huntingford & Mark S. Williamson, 2018. "Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 553(7688), pages 319-322, January.
    46. John C. Fyfe & Gerald A. Meehl & Matthew H. England & Michael E. Mann & Benjamin D. Santer & Gregory M. Flato & Ed Hawkins & Nathan P. Gillett & Shang-Ping Xie & Yu Kosaka & Neil C. Swart, 2016. "Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 224-228, March.
    47. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    48. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    49. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 188-202, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Abandoning a Paper
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2020-08-05 00:26:00
    2. Annual Review 2020
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2020-12-19 07:18:00
    3. Annual Review 2018
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2018-12-23 02:35:00
    4. Annual Review 2019
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2019-12-25 00:24:00
    5. Annual Review 2020
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2020-12-19 07:18:00
    6. A Multicointegration Model of Global Climate Change
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2018-02-10 07:11:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Gernot & Weitzman, Martin L., 2018. "Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 144-146.
    2. Gadea Rivas, María Dolores & Ramos, Andrey, 2023. "Trends in temperature data: micro-foundations of their nature," UC3M Working papers. Economics 39045, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    3. Pretis, Felix, 2020. "Econometric modelling of climate systems: The equivalence of energy balance models and cointegrated vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 256-273.
    4. Chen, Li & Gao, Jiti & Vahid, Farshid, 2022. "Global temperatures and greenhouse gases: A common features approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 240-254.
    5. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2020. "The effect of Amazon deforestation on global climate variables," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4332, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    6. Jiecheng Song & Merry Ma, 2023. "Climate Change: Linear and Nonlinear Causality Analysis," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-17, May.
    7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Igor Kheifets, 2021. "On Multicointegration," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2306, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Giselle Montamat & James H. Stock, 2020. "Quasi-experimental estimates of the transient climate response using observational data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 361-371, June.
    9. Joseph Nyangon & John Byrne, 2023. "Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), January.
    10. Eric Hillebrand & Søren Johansen & Torben Schmith, 2020. "Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Kheifets, Igor L., 2024. "High-dimensional IV cointegration estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    12. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "On Spurious Causality, CO2, and Global Temperature," Papers 2103.10605, arXiv.org.
    13. Jushuang Qin & Menglu Ma & Jiabin Shi & Shurui Ma & Baoguo Wu & Xiaohui Su, 2023. "The Time-Lag Effect of Climate Factors on the Forest Enhanced Vegetation Index for Subtropical Humid Areas in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Biscarri, Javier & Hualde, Javier, 2015. "A residual-based ADF test for stationary cointegration in I(2) settings," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 280-294.
    2. Kim, Dukpa & Oka, Tatsushi & Estrada, Francisco & Perron, Pierre, 2020. "Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 130-152.
    3. Dukpa Kim & Tatsushi Oka & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2017-003, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Paolo Paruolo & Rocco Mosconi, 2010. "Identification of cointegrating relations in I(2) vector autoregressive models," Economics and Quantitative Methods qf1007, Department of Economics, University of Insubria.
    5. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Leirvik, Thomas & Storelvmo, Trude, 2020. "Econometric estimates of Earth’s transient climate sensitivity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 6-32.
    6. Minxian, Yang, 1998. "System estimators of cointegrating matrix in absence of normalising information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 317-337, August.
    7. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    8. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    9. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
    10. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Beyer, Andreas, 2019. "A cointegration model of money and wealth," CFS Working Paper Series 619, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Mosconi, Rocco & Paruolo, Paolo, 2014. "Rank and order conditions for identification in simultaneous system of cointegrating equations with integrated variables of order two," MPRA Paper 53589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. J. Isaac Miller & Kyungsik Nam, 2019. "Dating Hiatuses: A Statistical Model of the Recent Slowdown in Global Warming – and the Next One," Working Papers 1903, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.
    13. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    14. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Some Financial Implications of Global Warming: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 377, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 25 Dec 2017.
    15. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Vanessa Berenguer‐Rico & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2006. "Testing for Multicointegration in Panel Data with Common Factors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 721-739, December.
    17. Norah Al-Ballaa, 2005. "Test for cointegration based on two-stage least squares," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 707-713.
    18. Jiao, Xiyu & Pretis, Felix & Schwarz, Moritz, 2024. "Testing for coefficient distortion due to outliers with an application to the economic impacts of climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(1).
    19. Hans Christian Kongsted & Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Analysing I(2) Systems by Transformed Vector Autoregressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 379-397, July.
    20. Francisco Estrada & Luis Filipe Martins & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2017-009, Boston University - Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cdgoede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.