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Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature

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  • Gadea-Rivas, Maria Dolores
  • Gonzalo, Jesús
  • Ramos, Andrey

Abstract

Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact, and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our micro-founded evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with one structural break. This break can be attributed to a combination of breaks on individual grids and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming.

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  • Gadea-Rivas, Maria Dolores & Gonzalo, Jesús & Ramos, Andrey, 2024. "Trends in temperature data: Micro-foundations of their nature," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004762
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111992
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    Cited by:

    1. C. Vladimir Rodr'iguez-Caballero & Esther Ruiz, 2024. "Temperature in the Iberian Peninsula: Trend, seasonality, and heterogeneity," Papers 2406.14145, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trends; Unit roots; Structural breaks; Temperature; Aggregation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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