IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/wpaper/818.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series

Author

Listed:
  • James Duffy
  • David Hendry

Abstract

Abstract Data spanning long time periods, such as that over 1860–2012 for the UK, seem likely to have substantial errors of measurement that may even be integrated of order one, but which are probably cointegrated for cognate variables. We analyze and simulate the impacts of such measurement errors on parameter estimates and tests in a bivariate cointegrated system with trends and location shifts which reflect the many major turbulent events that have occurred historically. When trends or shifts therein are large, cointegration analysis is not much affected by such measurement errors, leading to conventional stationary attenuation biases dependent on the measurement-error variance, unlike the outcome when there are no offsetting shifts or trends.

Suggested Citation

  • James Duffy & David Hendry, 2017. "The Impact of Integrated Measurement Errors on Modelling Long-run Macroeconomic Time Series," Economics Series Working Papers 818, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:818
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:7f0b598c-c05f-431c-9585-14c68cc31bc7
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2015. "Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    3. Boyer, George R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "New Estimates Of British Unemployment, 1870–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 643-675, September.
    4. Hendry David F & Mizon Grayham E, 2011. "Econometric Modelling of Time Series with Outlying Observations," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-26, February.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
    7. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    8. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    9. Haldrup, Niels & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti (ed.), 2014. "Essays in Nonlinear Time Series Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199679959.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    2. Hendry, David F., 2018. "Deciding between alternative approaches in macroeconomics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 119-135.
    3. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    4. Santiago José Gahn & Alejandro González, 2020. "On the ‘utilisation controversy’: a comment," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 703-707.
    5. Eric Hillebrand & Søren Johansen & Torben Schmith, 2020. "Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, November.
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    7. David F. Hendry, 2020. "First in, First out: Econometric Modelling of UK Annual CO_2 Emissions, 1860–2017," Economics Papers 2020-W02, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    8. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 2016. "Improving the teaching of econometrics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1170096-117, December.
    2. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2023. "Robust Discovery of Regression Models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-51.
    3. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2023. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2021. "Modelling non-stationary ‘Big Data’," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1556-1575.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    6. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    7. David F. Hendry & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 12, pages 287-326, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Ericsson, Neil R., 2017. "Economic forecasting in theory and practice: An interview with David F. Hendry," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 523-542.
    9. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2005. "Guest Editors’ Introduction: Information in Economic Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 713-753, December.
    10. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    11. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers 2022-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-449, October.
    14. David F. Hendry, 2020. "A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling," Economics Papers 2020-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 1997. "Simulating the impact of foreign capital in an open-economy macroeconomic model of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-478, July.
    16. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    17. Herwartz, Helmut & Neumann, Michael H., 2005. "Bootstrap inference in systems of single equation error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 165-193, September.
    18. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    19. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    20. Hendry, David F. & Pretis, Felix, 2023. "Analysing differences between scenarios," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 754-771.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Integrated Measurement Errors; Location Shifts; Long-run Data; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:818. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.