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Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries

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  • Dergiades, Theologos
  • Kaufmann, Robert K.
  • Panagiotidis, Theodore

Abstract

We test two hypotheses that are derived from the anthropogenic theory of climate change. The first postulates that a growing population and increasing economic activity increase anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active gases relative to natural sources and sinks, and this alters global biogeochemical cycles in a way that increases the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature. The second postulates that the increase in the persistence of radiative forcing transmits a stochastic trend to the time series for temperature. Results indicate that the persistence of radiative forcing and temperature changes from I(0) to I(1) during the last 500 years and that the I(1) fingerprint in radiative forcing can be detected in a statistically measureable fashion in surface temperature. As such, our results are consistent with the physical mechanisms that underlie the theory of anthropogenic climate change.

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  • Dergiades, Theologos & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Long-run changes in radiative forcing and surface temperature: The effect of human activity over the last five centuries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 67-85.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:76:y:2016:i:c:p:67-85
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2015.11.005
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    2. Zerbo, Eléazar & Darné, Olivier, 2019. "On the stationarity of CO2 emissions in OECD and BRICS countries: A sequential testing approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 319-332.
    3. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    4. Xin Tong & Xuesen Li & Lin Tong & Xuan Jiang, 2018. "Spatial Spillover and the Influencing Factors Relating to Provincial Carbon Emissions in China Based on the Spatial Panel Data Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 676-690, September.
    6. Hassani, Hossein & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Gupta, Rangan & Das, Sonali, 2018. "Predicting global temperature anomaly: A definitive investigation using an ensemble of twelve competing forecasting models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 121-139.
    7. Chang, Yoosoon & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Kim, Chang Sik & Miller, J. Isaac & Park, Joon Y. & Park, Sungkeun, 2020. "Evaluating trends in time series of distributions: A spatial fingerprint of human effects on climate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 274-294.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2019. "Time Trends and Persistence in the Global CO2 Emissions Across Europe," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 213-228, May.
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    13. Lichun Xiong & Martin De Jong & Fengting Wang & Baodong Cheng & Chang Yu, 2018. "Spatial Spillover Effects of Environmental Pollution in China’s Central Plains Urban Agglomeration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global climate change; Radiative forcing; Surface temperature;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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