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Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions

Author

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  • Stephen K. McNees

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Forecasting cyclical turning points: the record in the past three recessions," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1987:i:mar:p:31-40
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    2. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
    3. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    4. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "Market‐timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 55-64, September.
    5. Sergey V. Smirnov & Daria A. Avdeeva, 2016. "Wishful Bias in Predicting Us Recessions: Indirect Evidence," HSE Working papers WP BRP 135/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Vora, Premal P. & McGinnis, John D., 2000. "The asset allocation decision in retirement: lessons from dollar-cost averaging," Financial Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 47-63, 00.
    7. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
    8. Jones, Adam T. & Ogden, Richard E., 2017. "A day late and a dollar short: The effect of policy uncertainty on fed forecast errors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 112-122.
    9. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "The 1990-91 recession in historical perspective," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
    10. Palle S. Andersen, 1997. "Forecast errors and financial developments," BIS Working Papers 51, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Andrew J. Filardo, 1999. "How reliable are recession prediction models?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 35-55.
    12. Peláez, Rolando F., 2015. "Market-timing the business cycle," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 55-64.

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