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Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time. (Report): An experience of the 2008-09 recession

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  • Sergey V. Smirnov

Abstract

This report investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis, such as several composite leading indicators, a purchasing managers’ index, enterprise and consumer sentiment indexes, and so on. However, the 2008-09 world financial crisis spread throughout Russia quite unexpectedly for most politicians, businessmen and experts alike. Is it possible that none of existing indexes were able to say anything about the approaching decline? Using a simple “rule of thumb” proposed in this report one may easily see that that in reality this was not the case. So then why did a more or less definite forecast provided by some indexes have no consequences for common economic sentiments in Russia? This report gives some answers to this question. Keywords: recession; growth cycles; cyclical indicators; leading indicators; turning points; Russia JEL classification: E32

Suggested Citation

  • Sergey V. Smirnov, 2014. "Russian cyclical indicators and their usefulness in real time. (Report): An experience of the 2008-09 recession," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(1), pages 1-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jxx568wcfhd
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jxx568wcfhd
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    2. Inna S. Lola, 2017. "The Statistical Measurement of Business Conditions for Small Entrepreneurs," HSE Working papers WP BRP 71/STI/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    recession; growth cycles; cyclical indicators; leading indicators; turning points; russia jel classification: e32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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