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Dating business cycle turning points: The Greek economy during 1970-2012 and the recent recession

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  • Ekaterini Tsouma

Abstract

This paper establishes a reference chronology for the Greek business cycle from early 1970 to late 2012, against the backdrop of the late 2000s global recession and the most recent domestic economic developments, which once again stress the significance of dating business cycle turning points. The derivation of the exact dates of switches between expansions and recessions allows the identification of the point in time at which the Greek economy entered the recent recessionary business cycle regime in the late 2000s and the verification of the assertion that, up to the end of 2012, it had not yet exited the recession. We rely on both non-parametric and parametric procedures in order to check the coherence among the obtained turning points and evaluate the establishment of a reference chronology. We use quarterly GDP data and selected monthly indicators covering important sectors and activities in the Greek economy. On the basis of the obtained exact turning point dates and the indications provided by several business cycle and phases characteristics, we are able to propose a reference chronology for Greece and outline stylised facts of the Greek business cycle for a time period of over 40 years. Our findings clearly suggest that the Greek economy entered a recessionary business cycle regime in 2008 which was continued throughout 2012.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterini Tsouma, 2014. "Dating business cycle turning points: The Greek economy during 1970-2012 and the recent recession," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(1), pages 1-24.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jz0sr0pnhs8
    DOI: 10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jz0sr0pnhs8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    2. Joan Daouli & Michael Demoussis & Nicholas Giannakopoulos & Nikolitsa Lampropoulou, 2015. "The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Current Greek Economic Crisis," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 13(2), pages 177-196.
    3. Ivo Krznar, 2011. "Identifying Recession and Expansion Periods in Croatia," Working Papers 29, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    4. Daouli, Joan & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas & Lambropoulou, Nikolitsa, 2015. "The ins and outs of Greek unemployment in the Great Depression," MPRA Paper 66299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:agr:journl:v:10(587):y:2013:i:10(587):p:97-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Samet Günay, 2014. "Are the Scaling Properties of Bull and Bear Markets Identical? Evidence from Oil and Gold Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-20, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle turning points; dating algorithms; recession; Greece;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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