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Dating Business-Cycle turning points

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  • Rolando Peláez

Abstract

This paper presents a logit model for dating business-cycle turning points. The regressors are monthly series from the Business Cycle Indicators database of the Conference Board. Dividing the sample period into a subset for model initialization (1959∶9–1970∶12) and a subset for testing (1971∶1–2003∶12) yields a chronology that is nearly identical to that established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). However, the recognition lag is less than four months, in contrast to an average of more than eleven months for the official chronology. (JEL E320) Copyright Springer 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Rolando Peláez, 2005. "Dating Business-Cycle turning points," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 127-137, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:29:y:2005:i:1:p:127-137
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02761548
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Erholung der Weltwirtschaft verliert an Schwung," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 45574, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

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