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Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland

Author

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  • Wolfgang Polasek

    (Institute for Advanced Studies, IHS Vienna; RCEA Rimini, Italy)

Abstract

The paper explores the quarterly sequence of business cycles in Iceland for 40 years between 1970 and 2009 using the business cycle technique of Leamer (2009). We apply first a turning point (TP) dating identification procedure based on the Hendrick-Prescott (HP) filter of the quarterly growth rates of GDP and then we use different candidates for leading indicators for turning points. We find that the Iceland economy has a rather short business cycle of about 3 years and most macroeconomic indicators are in accordance with the business cycles. Only a few indicators have a predictive potential, some variables like consumption show a one quarter lag. Furthermore, we apply the concept of abnormal contributions to growth for candidates as a leading indicator of turning points. We find that over the last decade there is some evidence that abnormal growth contributions are better indicators for troughs than for peaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Polasek, 2010. "Dating and Exploration of the Business Cycle in Iceland," Working Paper series 13_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:13_10
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    File URL: http://www.rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp13_10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph Stiglitz, 2001. "Monetary and exchange rate policy in small open economies: the case of Iceland," Economics wp15_stiglitz, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    3. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
    4. Edward E. Leamer, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-46389-4, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolay V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2017. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, May.
    2. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Puah, Chin-Hong & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Forecasting malaysian business cycle movement: empirical evidence from composite leading indicator," MPRA Paper 36649, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle dating; HP filtering; exploratory turning point analysis; lead and lag indicators; abnormal growth contributions; gross domestic product (GDP) growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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