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Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in China: A Long-term Projection

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  • Sheng, Yu
  • Song, Ligang

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-country and multi-product partial equilibrium model to forecast food supply and demand in China and its impact on food trade in 2050. The model endogenises shifting consumption preferences due to China’s demographic changes and real incomes growth caused by ongoing urbanisation and industrialisation. We show that total food demand in China is doubling by 2050 and its structure will shift towards more luxurious goods, away from necessities. While improved productivity growth will enable domestic production to rise, imports are still likely to play an important role in reducing the “quality” gap in future Chinese food demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheng, Yu & Song, Ligang, 2017. "Agricultural Production and Food Consumption in China: A Long-term Projection," 2017 ASAE 9th International Conference, January 11-13, Bangkok, Thailand 284803, Asian Society of Agricultural Economists (ASAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:asae17:284803
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.284803
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demand and Price Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • N55 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - Asia including Middle East
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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