Clustering Analysis of Soybean Production to Understand its Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the North China Plain

The production gap of soybean ( Glycine max L. Merr.) has been expanding in China recently, due to the increasing demand and decreasing production. Identifying soybean production dynamics is contributable to appropriate adjustment of crop rotation system and efficient use of agricultural resources—and thus to ensure food security. Taking the North China plain (NCP) as a case area, this study first analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of soybean production during 1998–2015 based on the spatial autocorrelation method, and then calculated contributions to the total production by yield and sown area using the factor decomposition method. The results indicated that total soybean production in the NCP decreased dramatically from 1998 to 2015 and showed a decreasing trend in 80.4% (263) of the counties, mainly (83.9%) contributed by the shrinkage of sown area, largely caused by decreasing benefit. Two regions were found with significantly spatial clustering degree of soybean production. In the south part of NCP, soybean production was highly clustered in Anhui province, and in north it was mainly clustered in western Hebei plain. It was found that soybean production in the NCP was rather sensitive to the return gaps of soybean from maize ( Zea mays L. ). These imply that the reduced area of soybean production can be restored if the return is improved by adopting appropriate policies such as appropriate subsidies. These findings could be helpful for the policymakers to make soybean production planning in the NCP, contributing to the national revitalization strategy of soybean production.