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China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model

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  • Xi He
  • Miguel Carriquiry
  • Amani Elobeid
  • Dermot Hayes
  • Minghao Li
  • Wendong Zhang

Abstract

We calibrate the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development International Agricultural Commodity Market model using 2019/20 marketing year crop data and 2020 calendar year livestock and biofuel data to project China's agricultural imports under six plausible policy scenarios focusing on ethanol, corn, and pork from 2021 to 2030. Our baseline projection reflects China's current policy of relaxing the tariff rate quota (TRQ) for corn and imposing ethanol tariff without any ethanol/gasoline blend mandate. Baseline projections show China's ethanol imports grow from 100 million liters in 2020 to 1.21 billion liters in 2030; however, they also show that China's corn and pork imports remain at high levels and peak in the 2022/23 marketing year. Compared with the baseline, adopting the ethanol mandate increases China's corn and pork imports, and resuming the corn TRQ increases China's ethanol and pork imports. Both the ethanol mandate and corn import restrictions shift US and global exports from corn to ethanol and pork products. These projections can serve as benchmark estimates of China's imports of major agricultural commodities in the next decade. [EconLit citations: Q17, Q18, Q11].

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  • Xi He & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid & Dermot Hayes & Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang, 2022. "China's corn and biofuel policies and agricultural trade: Projections from an international agricultural commodity market model," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 970-989, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:38:y:2022:i:4:p:970-989
    DOI: 10.1002/agr.21764
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Hansen, James & Gale, Fred, 2014. "China in the Next Decade: Rising Meat Demand and Growing Imports of Feed," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 03, pages 1-1, April.
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    6. Minghao Li & Wendong Zhang & Dermot J. Hayes & Riley Arthur & Yantao Yang & Xiudong Wang, 2017. "China's New Nationwide E10 Ethanol Mandate and Its Global Implications," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-fall-2017-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    9. Xi He & Dermot J. Hayes & Wendong Zhang, 2020. "Upheaval in China's Corn Market: Will China expand its Tariff Rate Quota for Corn?," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-fall-2020-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    11. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
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    1. Mandegari, Mohsen & Ebadian, Mahmood & Saddler, Jack (John), 2023. "The need for effective life cycle assessment (LCA) to enhance the effectiveness of policies such as low carbon fuel standards (LCFS's)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

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