IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v270y2022ics037837742200261x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China

Author

Listed:
  • Gao, Yukun
  • Zhao, Hongfang
  • Zhao, Chuang
  • Hu, Guohua
  • Zhang, Han
  • Liu, Xue
  • Li, Nan
  • Hou, Haiyan
  • Li, Xia

Abstract

With the growth in population over the past decades, China’s food demand has been increasing. However, crops are facing greater water stress with the rising temperature and increasing drought in future. Therefore, identifying potential crop yield and its driving factors is necessary to ensure continued food production. In the present study, we estimated the potential yields of maize and wheat in China, with and without water limits, from 1985 to 2015 using a simple generic crop model (SIMPLE). We then investigated how climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) drove the spatial and temporal variation of yield gaps (quantified as the difference between potential yields with and without water limits). We found an increasing trend in the water limited yield gap of maize in northern China (3.9 ± 4.3 kg ha-1 yr-2) and wheat in central China (2.6 ± 2.4 kg ha-1 yr-2). The temporal trends of maize and wheat yield gaps in China were mainly related to precipitation and temperature. However, the spatial variation in maize yield gap trends was mainly related to the variations in precipitation, whereas for wheat it was attributed to changes in temperature or solar radiation. Upgrading irrigation infrastructure and management techniques or spatially adjusting crop types could help closing the yield gap of wheat in some zones.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Yukun & Zhao, Hongfang & Zhao, Chuang & Hu, Guohua & Zhang, Han & Liu, Xue & Li, Nan & Hou, Haiyan & Li, Xia, 2022. "Spatial and temporal variations of maize and wheat yield gaps and their relationships with climate in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:270:y:2022:i:c:s037837742200261x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037837742200261X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107714?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marijn Velde & Francesco Tubiello & Anton Vrieling & Fayçal Bouraoui, 2012. "Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 751-765, August.
    2. Huiqing Bai & Jing Wang & Quanxiao Fang & Hong Yin, 2019. "Modeling the sensitivity of wheat yield and yield gap to temperature change with two contrasting methods in the North China Plain," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(4), pages 589-607, October.
    3. Zhao, Wenzhi & Liu, Bing & Zhang, Zhihui, 2010. "Water requirements of maize in the middle Heihe River basin, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 215-223, February.
    4. Jing Wang & Enli Wang & Xiaoguang Yang & Fusuo Zhang & Hong Yin, 2012. "Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 825-840, August.
    5. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    6. Xuhui Wang & Christoph Müller & Joshua Elliot & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Philippe Ciais & Jonas Jägermeyr & James Gerber & Patrice Dumas & Chenzhi Wang & Hui Yang & Laurent Li & Delphine Deryng & Christ, 2021. "Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    7. Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, January.
    8. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    9. Sheng, Yu & Song, Ligang, 2019. "Agricultural production and food consumption in China: A long-term projection," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-29.
    10. Jonathan A. Foley & Navin Ramankutty & Kate A. Brauman & Emily S. Cassidy & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Christine O’Connell & Deepak K. Ray & Paul C. West & Christian Balz, 2011. "Solutions for a cultivated planet," Nature, Nature, vol. 478(7369), pages 337-342, October.
    11. You, Liangzhi & Spoor, Max & Ulimwengu, John & Zhang, Shemei, 2011. "Land use change and environmental stress of wheat, rice and corn production in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 461-473.
    12. Chao Chen & Walter Baethgen & Andrew Robertson, 2013. "Contributions of individual variation in temperature, solar radiation and precipitation to crop yield in the North China Plain, 1961–2003," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(3), pages 767-788, February.
    13. Nathaniel D. Mueller & James S. Gerber & Matt Johnston & Deepak K. Ray & Navin Ramankutty & Jonathan A. Foley, 2012. "Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management," Nature, Nature, vol. 490(7419), pages 254-257, October.
    14. Lu, Hai-dong & Xue, Ji-quan & Guo, Dong-wei, 2017. "Efficacy of planting date adjustment as a cultivation strategy to cope with drought stress and increase rainfed maize yield and water-use efficiency," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 227-235.
    15. Elmar Kriegler & Jae Edmonds & Stéphane Hallegatte & Kristie Ebi & Tom Kram & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 401-414, February.
    16. Patricio Grassini & Kent M. Eskridge & Kenneth G. Cassman, 2013. "Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 4(1), pages 1-11, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hou, Miaolei & Li, Yi & Biswas, Asim & Chen, Xinguo & Xie, Lulu & Liu, Deli & Li, Linchao & Feng, Hao & Wu, Shufang & Satoh, Yusuke & Pulatov, Alim & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2024. "Concurrent drought threatens wheat and maize production and will widen crop yield gaps in the future," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    2. Meng, Huayue & Qian, Long, 2024. "Performances of different yield-detrending methods in assessing the impacts of agricultural drought and flooding: A case study in the middle-and-lower reach of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Yu, Qiangyi & Wu, Wenbin & You, Liangzhi & Zhu, Tingju & van Vliet, Jasper & Verburg, Peter H. & Liu, Zhenhuan & Li, Zhengguo & Yang, Peng & Zhou, Qingbo & Tang, Huajun, 2017. "Assessing the harvested area gap in China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 212-220.
    3. Zhongen Niu & Huimin Yan & Fang Liu, 2020. "Decreasing Cropping Intensity Dominated the Negative Trend of Cropland Productivity in Southern China in 2000–2015," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Matteo Coronese & Martina Occelli & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2024. "Towards sustainable agriculture: behaviors, spatial dynamics and policy in an evolutionary agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2024/05, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Qiu, Bingwen & Jian, Zeyu & Yang, Peng & Tang, Zhenghong & Zhu, Xiaolin & Duan, Mingjie & Yu, Qiangyi & Chen, Xuehong & Zhang, Miao & Tu, Ping & Xu, Weiming & Zhao, Zhiyuan, 2024. "Unveiling grain production patterns in China (2005–2020) towards targeted sustainable intensification," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Zhang, He & Tao, Fulu & Zhou, Guangsheng, 2019. "Potential yields, yield gaps, and optimal agronomic management practices for rice production systems in different regions of China," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 100-112.
    7. René Rietra & Marius Heinen & Oene Oenema, 2022. "A Review of Crop Husbandry and Soil Management Practices Using Meta-Analysis Studies: Towards Soil-Improving Cropping Systems," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-31, February.
    8. Chen, Qiaomin & Liu, Yujie & Ge, Quansheng & Pan, Tao, 2018. "Impacts of historic climate variability and land use change on winter wheat climatic productivity in the North China Plain during 1980–2010," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-9.
    9. Zhuang, Huimin & Zhang, Zhao & Han, Jichong & Cheng, Fei & Li, Shaokun & Wu, Huaqing & Mei, Qinghang & Song, Jie & Wu, Xinyu & Zhang, Zongliang & Xu, Jialu, 2024. "Stagnating rice yields in China need to be overcome by cultivars and management improvements," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    10. Bai, Huiqing & Wang, Jing & Fang, Quanxiao & Huang, Binxiang, 2020. "Does a trade-off between yield and efficiency reduce water and nitrogen inputs of winter wheat in the North China Plain?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Lamperti, Francesco & Bosetti, Valentina & Roventini, Andrea & Tavoni, Massimo & Treibich, Tania, 2021. "Three green financial policies to address climate risks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    12. Solberg, Birger & Moiseyev, Alex & Hansen, Jon Øvrum & Horn, Svein Jarle & Øverland, Margareth, 2021. "Wood for food: Economic impacts of sustainable use of forest biomass for salmon feed production in Norway," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    14. Lanzi, Elisa & Dellink, Rob & Chateau, Jean, 2018. "The sectoral and regional economic consequences of outdoor air pollution to 2060," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 89-113.
    15. Meike Weltin & Silke Hüttel, 2023. "Sustainable Intensification Farming as an Enabler for Farm Eco-Efficiency?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(1), pages 315-342, January.
    16. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    17. F. Castro-Llanos & G. Hyman & J. Rubiano & J. Ramirez-Villegas & H. Achicanoy, 2019. "Climate change favors rice production at higher elevations in Colombia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1401-1430, December.
    18. Speers, Ann E. & Besedin, Elena Y. & Palardy, James E. & Moore, Chris, 2016. "Impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on coral reef fisheries: An integrated ecological–economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 33-43.
    19. Kalkuhl, Matthias & Wenz, Leonie, 2020. "The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global panel of regions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    20. McManamay, Ryan A. & DeRolph, Christopher R. & Surendran-Nair, Sujithkumar & Allen-Dumas, Melissa, 2019. "Spatially explicit land-energy-water future scenarios for cities: Guiding infrastructure transitions for urban sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 880-900.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:270:y:2022:i:c:s037837742200261x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.