IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aareaj/118013.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ

Author

Listed:
  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.

Abstract

This article analyses the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand and trade. Projections vary greatly, from China being self- sufficient in grain to being a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences stem mainly from the approaches chosen to model China's grain production and, in particular, the combined effects of land decline and yield growth. The article also points out improvements needed in future work on modelling China's grain economy, which include accounting for the links between agriculture and other sectors, technical change in the livestock industry and infra- structure constraints on grain imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why projections on China's future food supply and demand differ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(2), pages 1-22.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.118013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/118013/files/1467-8489.00009.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.118013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Yongzheng & Tyers, Rodney, 1989. "The economic costs of food self-sufficiency in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 237-253, February.
    2. Anderson, Kym & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Martin, William J., 1997. "Asia-Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy-wide perspective," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-26.
    3. Alexandratos, Nikos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    5. Nikos Alexandratos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, Kym & Peng, Chao Yang, 1998. "Feeding and fueling China in the 21st century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1413-1429, August.
    2. Rejesus, Roderick M. & Heisey, Paul W. & Smale, Melinda, 1999. "Sources of Productivity Growth in Wheat: A Review of Recent Performance and Medium- to Long-Term Prospects," Economics Working Papers 7693, CIMMYT: International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
    3. Yongzheng Yang & Montfort Mlachila, 2007. "The end of textiles quotas: A case study of the impact on Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 675-699.
    4. Delgado, Christopher L. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Steinfeld, Henning & Ehui, Simeon K. & Courbois, Claude, 1999. "Livestock to 2020: the next food revolution," 2020 vision discussion papers 28, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Scott, Gregory J. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Ringler, Claudia, 2000. "Global projections for root and tuber crops to the year 2020," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 561-597, October.
    6. Valdes, Alberto & Zietz, Joachim, 1995. "Distortions in world food markets in the wake of GATT: Evidence and policy implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 913-926, June.
    7. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Stephane De Cara & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Cheng Fang & Holger Matthey, 2001. "China's Accession to the WTO: What Is at Stake for Agricultural Markets?," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 01-wp276, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    8. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    9. S. Prieler & A.P. Lesko & S. Anderberg, 1998. "Three Scenarios for Land-Use Change: A Case Study in Central Europe," Working Papers rr98003, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    10. Chad Barrett & Jacinto F. Fabiosa, 1998. "Policy Model for the Livestock and Poultry Sectors of Mexico, A," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 98-tr39, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Kym Anderson, 2003. "Trade Liberalization, Agriculture, and Poverty in Low-income Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-25, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. A. Ali Koc, 1999. "Acreage Allocation Model Estimation and Policy Evaluations for Major Crops in Turkey," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 99-wp220, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Jensen, Helen H., 1992. "Contributions of Women and Household Members to the Economy in Rural Areas," Staff General Research Papers Archive 526, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    14. Gilbert, John & Wahl, Thomas I., 2000. "Rural-Urban Migration, Labor Mobility And Agricultural Trade Liberalization In China," 2000 Annual meeting, July 30-August 2, Tampa, FL 21727, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Jin Guo & Tetsuji Tanaka, 2020. "Examining the determinants of global and local price passthrough in cereal markets: evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH and panel analyses," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    16. Fuller, Frank H. & Beghin, John C. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fang, Cheng & de Cara, Stephane & Matthey, Holger, 2001. "China'S Accession To The World Trade Organization: Impact On Agricultural Markets," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20619, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Anderson, Kym & Huang, Jikun & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 443-456.
    18. Alexandratos, Nikos, 1997. "China's consumption of cereals and the capacity of the rest of the world to increase exports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 253-267, June.
    19. Nong, Duy, 2019. "Potential economic impacts of global wild catch fishery decline in Southeast Asia and South America," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 213-226.
    20. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Food Security and Poverty;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aareaj:118013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaresea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.