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Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:

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  • Fan, Shenggen
  • Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic assumptions, demand and supply parameters, and structures of the models used in projecting China's future food supply, demand, and trade. Projections from these models vary greatly, from China being almost self-sufficient in grain to becoming a net importer of 369 million metric tons of grain in 2030. The differences arrive mainly in the supply projections (the combined effect of land decline and yield growth). The paper also suggests methodology improvements needed in making future projections of China's grain economy, such as endogenizing government policies, and taking into account the linkage between the agricultural with the non-agricultural sectors, technical change in livestock industry, and infrastructure constraints on grain imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Fan, Shenggen & Agcaoili-Sombilla, Mercedita C., 1997. "Why do projections on China's future food supply and demand differ?:," EPTD discussion papers 22, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:eptddp:22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yang, Yongzheng & Tyers, Rodney, 1989. "The economic costs of food self-sufficiency in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 237-253, February.
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    3. Nikos Alexandratos, 1996. "China's projected cereals deficits in a world context," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), pages 1-16, September.
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    5. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Chaudhary, Sudhir & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kovarik, Karen & Hart, Chad E. & Fang, Cheng & Kaus, Phillip J. & Naik, Manta & , 1999. "FAPRI 1999 World Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 32050, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    6. Johnson, D. Gale, 1994. "Does China have a grain problem?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14.
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