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Robin Hanson

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Wei Sun & Robin Hanson & Kathryn Blackmond Laskey & Charles Twardy, 2012. "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets," Papers 1210.4900, arXiv.org.

    Cited by:

    1. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.

  2. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.

    Cited by:

    1. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Kyle C. Meng, 2016. "Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 22255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2016. "Media attention and betting markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 304-333.
    4. Douglas Davis & Oleg Korenok & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Articles

  1. Scholl, Keller & Hanson, Robin, 2020. "Testing the automation revolution hypothesis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Florent Bordot & André Lorentz, 2021. "Automation and labor market polarization in an evolutionary model with heterogeneous workers," Working Papers of BETA 2021-39, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.

  2. Yasmeen Jaghbeer & Robin Hanson & Mats Ingemar Johansson, 2020. "Automated order picking systems and the links between design and performance: a systematic literature review," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4489-4505, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Heiko Diefenbach & Simon Emde & Christoph H. Glock & Eric H. Grosse, 2022. "New solution procedures for the order picker routing problem in U-shaped pick areas with a movable depot," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(2), pages 535-573, June.
    2. Ding, Tianrong & Zhang, Yuankai & Wang, Zheng & Hu, Xiangpei, 2024. "Velocity-based rack storage location assignment for the unidirectional robotic mobile fulfillment system," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    3. Massimo Bertolini & Davide Mezzogori & Francesco Zammori, 2023. "Enhancing Manual Order Picking through a New Metaheuristic, Based on Particle Swarm Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-37, July.
    4. Yi Li & Zhiyang Li, 2022. "Shuttle-Based Storage and Retrieval System: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Bingqian WANG & Xiuqing YANG & Mingyao QI, 2023. "Order and rack sequencing in a robotic mobile fulfillment system with multiple picking stations," Flexible Services and Manufacturing Journal, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 509-547, June.
    6. Srinivas, Sharan & Yu, Shitao, 2022. "Collaborative order picking with multiple pickers and robots: Integrated approach for order batching, sequencing and picker-robot routing," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    7. Zhuang, Yanling & Zhou, Yun & Yuan, Yufei & Hu, Xiangpei & Hassini, Elkafi, 2022. "Order picking optimization with rack-moving mobile robots and multiple workstations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(2), pages 527-544.
    8. Jiang, Min & Huang, George Q., 2022. "Intralogistics synchronization in robotic forward-reserve warehouses for e-commerce last-mile delivery," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Lam, H.Y. & Ho, G.T.S. & Mo, Daniel Y. & Tang, Valerie, 2023. "Responsive pick face replenishment strategy for stock allocation to fulfil e-commerce order," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    10. Nikola Pavlov & Dragan Đurdjević & Milan Andrejić, 2023. "A Novel Two-Stage Methodological Approach for Storage Technology Selection: An Engineering–FAHP–WASPAS Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-20, August.
    11. Zhuang, Yanling & Zhou, Yun & Hassini, Elkafi & Yuan, Yufei & Hu, Xiangpei, 2024. "Improving order picking efficiency through storage assignment optimization in robotic mobile fulfillment systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(2), pages 718-732.

  3. Robin Hanson & Lars Medbo & Majeed Assaf & Patrik Jukic, 2018. "Time efficiency and physical workload in manual picking from large containers," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 1109-1117, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Taniya Mukherjee & Isha Sangal & Biswajit Sarkar & Tamer M. Alkadash & Qais Almaamari, 2023. "Pallet Distribution Affecting a Machine’s Utilization Level and Picking Time," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-17, July.

  4. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
    2. Palfrey, Thomas R. & Wang, Stephanie W., "undated". "On eliciting beliefs in strategic games," Working Papers 1271, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    3. Iftekhar, M. S. & Tisdell, J. G., 2018. "Learning in repeated multiple unit combinatorial auctions: An experimental study," Working Papers 267301, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    4. Andrea Albertazzi & Friederike Mengel & Ronald Peeters, 2021. "Benchmarking information aggregation in experimental markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1500-1516, October.
    5. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    6. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
    7. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "Eliciting Beliefs: Proper Scoring Rules, Incentives, Stakes and Hedging," IDEI Working Papers 643, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    8. Pankaj Pandey & Einar Snekkenes, 2016. "Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-62, May.
    9. Forsell, Eskil & Viganola, Domenico & Pfeiffer, Thomas & Almenberg, Johan & Wilson, Brad & Chen, Yiling & Nosek, Brian A. & Johannesson, Magnus & Dreber, Anna, 2019. "Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    10. Page, Lionel & Siemroth, Christoph, 2017. "An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 354-378.
    11. Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 143-176, March.
    12. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
    13. Linardi, Sera, 2017. "Accounting for noise in the microfoundations of information aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 334-353.
    14. Florian Teschner & Henner Gimpel, 2018. "Crowd Labor Markets as Platform for Group Decision and Negotiation Research: A Comparison to Laboratory Experiments," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 197-214, April.

  5. Robin Hanson, 2009. "On Market Maker Functions," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(1), pages 61-63, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    2. Aseem Brahma & Sanmay Das & Malik Magdon-Ismail, 2010. "Comparing Prediction Market Structures, With an Application to Market Making," Papers 1009.1446, arXiv.org.
    3. Frank M. A. Klingert & Matthias Meyer, 2018. "Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms: An Experiment-Based and Micro Validated Multi-Agent Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-7.
    4. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.

  6. Robin Hanson & Ryan Oprea, 2009. "A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 304-314, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "Information (non)aggregation in markets with costly signal acquisition," Post-Print hal-02312202, HAL.
    2. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Veiga, H. & Vorsatz, M., 2006. "Price manipulation in an experimental asset market," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    5. Chau, Ching & Aspris, Angelo & Foley, Sean & Malloch, Hamish, 2021. "Quote-Based manipulation of illiquid securities," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    6. Reinstein, David & Song, Joon, 2014. "Listen to the Market, Hear the Best Policy Decision, but Don't Always Choose it," Economics Discussion Papers 10008, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    7. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
    8. Siemroth, Christoph, 2014. "Why prediction markets work : The role of information acquisition and endogenous weighting," Working Papers 14-02, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    9. Boris Maciejovsky & David V. Budescu, 2020. "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1497-1514, November.
    10. Raphael Boleslavsky & David L Kelly & Curtis R Taylor, 2013. "Selloffs, Bailouts, and Feedback: Can Asset Markets Inform Policy," Working Papers 2013-11, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    11. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    12. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and Dissemination of Information in Experimental Asset Markets in the Presence of a Manipulator," Working Papers 2008-29, FEDEA.
    13. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2010. "Information aggregation in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 13(4), pages 379-398, December.
    14. Ho Cheung Brian Lee & Jan Stallaert & Ming Fan, 2020. "Anomalies in Probability Estimates for Event Forecasting on Prediction Markets," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 29(9), pages 2077-2095, September.
    15. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_04, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    16. Mohammad Zare & Omid Naghshineh A. & Erfan Salavati & Adel Mohammadpour, 2021. "An agent-based model and detect price manipulation based on intraday transaction data with simulation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(43), pages 4931-4949, September.
    17. Brown, Alasdair & Reade, J. James & Vaughan Williams, Leighton, 2019. "When are prediction market prices most informative?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 420-428.

  7. Robin Hanson, 2007. "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Strijbis, Oliver & Arnesen, Sveinung, 2019. "Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 408-419.
    2. Bossaerts, Peter & Bowman, Elizabeth & Fattinger, Felix & Huang, Harvey & Lee, Michelle & Murawski, Carsten & Suthakar, Anirudh & Tang, Shireen & Yadav, Nitin, 2024. "Resource allocation, computational complexity, and market design," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Kashyap, Ravi, 2024. "The Democratization of Wealth Management: Hedged Mutual Fund Blockchain Protocol," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    5. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
    6. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Hamed Amini & Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2023. "Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books," Papers 2307.08768, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    8. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    9. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    10. Abe Alexander & Lars Fritz, 2024. "Impermanent loss and loss-vs-rebalancing I: some statistical properties," Papers 2410.00854, arXiv.org.
    11. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.
    12. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
    13. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning In Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-003 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    14. Aseem Brahma & Sanmay Das & Malik Magdon-Ismail, 2010. "Comparing Prediction Market Structures, With an Application to Market Making," Papers 1009.1446, arXiv.org.
    15. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
    16. Jinli Hu & Amos Storkey, 2014. "Multi-period Trading Prediction Markets with Connections to Machine Learning," Papers 1403.0648, arXiv.org.
    17. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
    18. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
    19. Galanis Spyros & Kotronis Stelios, 2021. "Updating Awareness and Information Aggregation," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 613-635, June.
    20. Yiling Chen & David M Pennock, 2012. "A Utility Framework for Bounded-Loss Market Makers," Papers 1206.5252, arXiv.org.
    21. John Garvey & Patrick Buckley, 2011. "Using Technology to Encourage Critical Thinking and Optimal Decision Making in Risk Management Education," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 299-309, September.
    22. Ravi Kashyap, 2023. "DeFi Security: Turning The Weakest Link Into The Strongest Attraction," Papers 2312.00033, arXiv.org.
    23. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
    24. Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012. "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 644-663.
    25. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    26. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
    27. Forsell, Eskil & Viganola, Domenico & Pfeiffer, Thomas & Almenberg, Johan & Wilson, Brad & Chen, Yiling & Nosek, Brian A. & Johannesson, Magnus & Dreber, Anna, 2019. "Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    28. Dian Yu & Jianjun Gao & Weiping Wu & Zizhuo Wang, 2022. "Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis," Papers 2205.08913, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    29. Hajime Mizuyama & Seiyu Yamaguchi & Mizuho Sato, 2019. "A Prediction Market-Based Gamified Approach to Enhance Knowledge Sharing in Organizations," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 50(5), pages 572-597, October.
    30. Buckley, Patrick, 2016. "Harnessing the wisdom of crowds: Decision spaces for prediction markets," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 85-94.
    31. Arman Abgaryan & Utkarsh Sharma, 2023. "Dynamic Function Market Maker," Papers 2307.13624, arXiv.org.
    32. Abe Alexander & Lars Fritz, 2024. "A theoretical framework for dynamical fee choice in AMMs," Papers 2404.03976, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    33. Rafael Frongillo, 2022. "Quantum Information Elicitation," Papers 2203.07469, arXiv.org.
    34. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    35. Vijay Mohan, 2022. "Automated market makers and decentralized exchanges: a DeFi primer," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-48, December.
    36. Richard Dewey & Craig Newbold, 2023. "The Pricing And Hedging Of Constant Function Market Makers," Papers 2306.11580, arXiv.org.
    37. Austin Adams, 2024. "Layer 2 be or Layer not 2 be: Scaling on Uniswap v3," Papers 2403.09494, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    38. Yongge Wang, 2020. "Automated Market Makers for Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2009.01676, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    39. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
    40. Ravi Kashyap, 2024. "To Trade Or Not To Trade: Cascading Waterfall Round Robin Rebalancing Mechanism for Cryptocurrencies," Papers 2407.12150, arXiv.org.
    41. Frank M. A. Klingert & Matthias Meyer, 2012. "Effectively combining experimental economics and multi-agent simulation: suggestions for a procedural integration with an example from prediction markets research," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-90, March.
    42. Wei Sun & Robin Hanson & Kathryn Blackmond Laskey & Charles Twardy, 2012. "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets," Papers 1210.4900, arXiv.org.
    43. Ueda, Masahiko, 2020. "Common knowledge equilibrium of Boolean securities in distributed information market," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    44. Robert L. Winkler & Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose, 2019. "Probability Forecasts and Their Combination: A Research Perspective," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 239-260, December.
    45. Pivato, Marcus & Soh, Arnold, 2020. "Weighted representative democracy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 52-63.
    46. Smaldino, Paul E. & Russell, Adam & Zefferman, Matthew & Donath, Judith & Foster, Jacob & Guilbeault, Douglas & Hilbert, Martin & Hobson, Elizabeth A. & Lerman, Kristina & Miton, Helena, 2024. "Information Architectures: A Framework for Understanding Socio-Technical Systems," SocArXiv c7vrw, Center for Open Science.
    47. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    48. Austin Adams & Ciamac C. Moallemi & Sara Reynolds & Dan Robinson, 2024. "am-AMM: An Auction-Managed Automated Market Maker," Papers 2403.03367, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    49. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
    50. Bhaskar Krishnamachari & Qi Feng & Eugenio Grippo, 2021. "Dynamic Curves for Decentralized Autonomous Cryptocurrency Exchanges," Papers 2101.02778, arXiv.org.
    51. Nicolas Della Penna & Mark D. Reid, 2011. "Bandit Market Makers," Papers 1112.0076, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2013.
    52. Camerer, Colin & Dreber, Anna & Forsell, Eskil & Ho, Teck-Hua & Huber, Jurgen & Johannesson, Magnus & Kirchler, Michael & Almenberg, Johan & Altmejd, Adam & Chan, Taizan & Heikensten, Emma & Holzmeist, 2016. "Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in Economics," MPRA Paper 75461, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    53. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
    54. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_04, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    55. David Johnstone & Stewart Jones & Oliver Jones & Steve Tulig, 2021. "Scoring Probability Forecasts by a User’s Bets Against a Market Consensus," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 169-184, September.
    56. Spyros Galanis & Sergei Mikhalishchev, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition," Papers 2406.07186, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    57. Ravi Kashyap, 2024. "The Democratization of Wealth Management: Hedged Mutual Fund Blockchain Protocol," Papers 2405.02302, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.

  8. Robin Hanson, 2007. "The Policy Analysis Market (A Thwarted Experiment in the Use of Prediction Markets for Public Policy)," Innovations: Technology, Governance, Globalization, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 73-88, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    2. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    3. Wolk, K.L. & Peeters, R.J.A.P., 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.

  9. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.

    Cited by:

    1. John Quiggin, 2009. "Six Refuted Doctrines," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 28(3), pages 239-248, September.
    2. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    3. Bin-Tzong Chie & Chih-Hwa Yang, 2021. "Efficiency of the Experimental Prediction Market: Public Information, Belief Evolution, and Personality Traits," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(4), pages 1-3.
    4. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
    5. Wolk, K.L. & Peeters, R.J.A.P., 2009. "The role of monetary incentives in prediction markets: a time series approach," Research Memorandum 013, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

  10. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 319-328, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Brad Taylor, 2015. "Strategic and expressive voting," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 159-170, June.

  11. Hanson, Robin & Oprea, Ryan & Porter, David, 2006. "Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 449-459, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Asim Khwaja & Rajkamal Iyer & Erzo Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2013. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," CID Working Papers 259, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2018. "Information (non)aggregation in markets with costly signal acquisition," Post-Print hal-02312202, HAL.
    4. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers 20-27, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    5. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Cary Deck & Shengle Lin & David Porter, 2010. "Affecting Policy by Manipulating Prediction Markets: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 10-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    7. John Dickhaut & Shengle Lin & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2010. "Durability, Re-trading and Market Performance," Working Papers 10-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    8. Julia Mortera & A. Philip Dawid, 2017. "A Note on Prediction Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0215, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    9. Veiga, H. & Vorsatz, M., 2006. "Price manipulation in an experimental asset market," Research Memorandum 024, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    10. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
    11. Andrea Albertazzi & Friederike Mengel & Ronald Peeters, 2021. "Benchmarking information aggregation in experimental markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1500-1516, October.
    12. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    13. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2020. "Manipulation And (Mis)Trust In Prediction Markets," Working Papers 2012, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    14. John J. Nay & Martin Van der Linden & Jonathan M. Gilligan, 2016. "Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change," Papers 1603.08961, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    15. Robin Hanson & Ryan Oprea, 2009. "A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 304-314, April.
    16. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2019. "Reconsidering Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Working Papers 1920, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    17. Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets in the Laboratory," Working Papers 13-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    18. Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2019. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Post-Print halshs-02393564, HAL.
    19. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
    20. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    21. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
    22. Theo Offerman & Giorgia Romagnoli & Andreas Ziegler, 2022. "Why are open ascending auctions popular? The role of information aggregation and behavioral biases," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(2), pages 787-823, May.
    23. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021. "Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    24. Simone Alfarano & Albert Banal-Estañol & Eva Camacho & Giulia Iori & Burcu Kapar & Rohit Rahi, 2024. "Centralized vs Decentralized Markets: The Role of Connectivity," Working Papers 1420, Barcelona School of Economics.
    25. Dai, Min & Jia, Yanwei & Kou, Steven, 2021. "The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 561-578.
    26. Lin, Shengle & Rassenti, Stephen, 2012. "Are under- and over-reaction the same matter? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 39-61.
    27. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
    28. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
    29. Dongyu Chen & Xiaolin Li & Fujun Lai, 2023. "Shill bidding in lenders’ eyes? A cross-country study on the influence of large bids in online P2P lending," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1089-1114, June.
    30. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
    31. Ahrash Dianat & Christoph Siemroth, 2021. "Improving decisions with market information: an experiment on corporate prediction markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 143-176, March.
    32. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2016. "Media attention and betting markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 304-333.
    33. Boris Maciejovsky & David V. Budescu, 2020. "Too Much Trust in Group Decisions: Uncovering Hidden Profiles by Groups and Markets," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1497-1514, November.
    34. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
    35. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Information Aggregation and the Cognitive Make-up of Traders," Working Papers 20-18, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    36. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
    37. Bellenzier, Lucia & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Rotundo, Giulia, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 224-236.
    38. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    39. Scott Sumner, 2016. "Nudging the Fed Toward a Rules-Based Policy Regime," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 315-335, Spring/Su.
    40. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and Dissemination of Information in Experimental Asset Markets in the Presence of a Manipulator," Working Papers 2008-29, FEDEA.
    41. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
    42. Douglas Davis & Oleg Korenok & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2014. "An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market‐Price Triggers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 999-1033, August.
    43. Moez Bennouri & Henner Gimpel & Jacques Robert, 2011. "Measuring the impact of the information aggregation mechanisms: an experimental investigation," Post-Print hal-00826235, HAL.
    44. Sumner, Scott, 2015. "Nominal GDP futures targeting," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 65-75.
    45. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
    46. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "Revisiting Information Aggregation in Asset Markets: Reflective Learning & Market Efficiency," Working Papers 15-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    47. Te Bao & Elizaveta Nekrasova & Tibor Neugebauer & Yohanes E. Riyanto, 2022. "Algorithmic trading in experimental markets with human traders: A literature survey," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 23, pages 302-322, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    48. Frank M. A. Klingert & Matthias Meyer, 2012. "Effectively combining experimental economics and multi-agent simulation: suggestions for a procedural integration with an example from prediction markets research," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-90, March.
    49. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
    50. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    51. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
    52. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2014. "Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2014/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    53. Peeters, R.J.A.P. & Wolk, K.L., 2014. "Eliciting and aggregating individual expectations: An experimental study," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    54. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    55. Alfarano, Simone & Banal-Estanol, Albert & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Iori, Giulia & Kapar, Burcu, 2020. "Centralized vs decentralized markets in the laboratory: The role of connectivity," MPRA Paper 99129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    56. Haikady N Nagaraja & Shane Sanders, 2020. "The aggregation paradox for statistical rankings and nonparametric tests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
    57. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
    58. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_04, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    59. Douglas Davis & Oleg Korenok & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    60. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.

  12. Robin Hanson, 2005. "Adverse selection in group insurance: The virtues of failing to represent voters," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 139-157, July.

    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Soika, 2018. "Moral Hazard and Advantageous Selection in Private Disability Insurance," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 43(1), pages 97-125, January.
    2. Martin Eling & Ruo Jia & Yi Yao, 2017. "Between-Group Adverse Selection: Evidence From Group Critical Illness Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(2), pages 771-809, June.

  13. Hanson, Robin, 2003. "Warning labels as cheap-talk: why regulators ban drugs," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(9-10), pages 2013-2029, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Barigozzi & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2006. "The Signaling Effect of Tax Policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 8(4), pages 611-630, October.
    2. Caleb S. Fuller, 2018. "Privacy law as price control," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 225-250, April.
    3. Levit, Doron, 2017. "Advising shareholders in takeovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 614-634.

  14. Robin Hanson, 2003. "Combinatorial Information Market Design," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 107-119, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Bergemann, Dirk & Ottaviani, Marco, 2021. "Information Markets and Nonmarkets," CEPR Discussion Papers 16459, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn W. Harrison & E. Elisabet Rutström, 2010. "Estimating Subjective Probabilities," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2010-08, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    3. Strijbis, Oliver & Arnesen, Sveinung, 2019. "Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 408-419.
    4. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Guillermo Angeris & Tarun Chitra, 2020. "Improved Price Oracles: Constant Function Market Makers," Papers 2003.10001, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    6. Frongillo, Rafael M. & Kash, Ian A., 2021. "General truthfulness characterizations via convex analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 636-662.
    7. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2009. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Information Market Design," Papers 0902.2429, arXiv.org.
    8. Abraham Othman & Tuomas Sandholm, 2013. "The Gates Hillman prediction market," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 17(2), pages 95-128, June.
    9. Julia Mortera & A. Philip Dawid, 2017. "A Note on Prediction Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0215, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    10. Papakonstantinou, A. & Rogers, A & Gerding, E. H. & Jennings, N. R., 2010. "Mechanism Design for the truthful elicitation of costly probabilistic estimates in Distributed Information Systems," MPRA Paper 43324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Guillermo Angeris & Alex Evans & Tarun Chitra, 2020. "When does the tail wag the dog? Curvature and market making," Papers 2012.08040, arXiv.org.
    12. Arthur Carvalho & Stanko Dimitrov & Kate Larson, 2018. "On proper scoring rules and cumulative prospect theory," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(3), pages 343-376, November.
    13. Tsakas, Elias, 2018. "Robust scoring rules," Research Memorandum 023, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    14. Sam M. Werner & Daniel Perez & Lewis Gudgeon & Ariah Klages-Mundt & Dominik Harz & William J. Knottenbelt, 2021. "SoK: Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2101.08778, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    15. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
    16. Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
    17. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2020. "Manipulation And (Mis)Trust In Prediction Markets," Working Papers 2012, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    18. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
    19. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2004. "Prediction Markets," Research Papers 1854, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    20. Yuqing Kong & Grant Schoenebeck, 2022. "False Consensus, Information Theory, and Prediction Markets," Papers 2206.02993, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
    21. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," Research Papers 1927, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    22. Ostrovsky, Michael, 2009. "Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets with Strategic Traders," Research Papers 2053, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    23. Ledyard, John & Hanson, Robin & Ishikida, Takashi, 2009. "An experimental test of combinatorial information markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-189, February.
    24. Werner Antweiler, 2012. "Long-Term Prediction Markets," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(3), pages 43-61.
    25. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
    26. Emerson Melo, 2021. "Learning In Random Utility Models Via Online Decision Problems," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-003 Classification-D, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    27. Armantier, Olivier & Treich, Nicolas, 2010. "Eliciting Beliefs: Proper Scoring Rules, Incentives, Stakes and Hedging," IDEI Working Papers 643, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    28. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
    29. Mueller-Frank, Manuel, 2014. "Does one Bayesian make a difference?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 423-452.
    30. Galanis Spyros & Kotronis Stelios, 2021. "Updating Awareness and Information Aggregation," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 613-635, June.
    31. Marko Corn & Nejc Rov{z}man, 2021. "Unihedge -- A decentralized market prediction platform," Papers 2108.11631, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    32. Rajiv Sethi & Julie Seager & Emily Cai & Daniel M. Benjamin & Fred Morstatter, 2021. "Models, Markets, and the Forecasting of Elections," Papers 2102.04936, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    33. Yiling Chen & Mike Ruberry & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2012. "Designing Informative Securities," Papers 1210.4837, arXiv.org.
    34. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Füller & Jan Marco Leimeister, 2016. "Rate or Trade? Identifying Winning Ideas in Open Idea Sourcing," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 27-48, March.
    35. Daniel Kirste & Niclas Kannengie{ss}er & Ricky Lamberty & Ali Sunyaev, 2023. "How Automated Market Makers Approach the Thin Market Problem in Cryptoeconomic Systems," Papers 2309.12818, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    36. Pankaj Pandey & Einar Snekkenes, 2016. "Using Financial Instruments to Transfer the Information Security Risks," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-62, May.
    37. Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
    38. Forsell, Eskil & Viganola, Domenico & Pfeiffer, Thomas & Almenberg, Johan & Wilson, Brad & Chen, Yiling & Nosek, Brian A. & Johannesson, Magnus & Dreber, Anna, 2019. "Predicting replication outcomes in the Many Labs 2 study," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PA).
    39. Dian Yu & Jianjun Gao & Weiping Wu & Zizhuo Wang, 2022. "Price Interpretability of Prediction Markets: A Convergence Analysis," Papers 2205.08913, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2023.
    40. Majid Karimi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2018. "On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages 72-89, June.
    41. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
    42. van Bruggen, G.H. & Spann, M. & Lilien, G.L. & Skiera, B., 2006. "Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2006-028-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    43. Siddarth Srinivasan & Ezra Karger & Yiling Chen, 2023. "Self-Resolving Prediction Markets for Unverifiable Outcomes," Papers 2306.04305, arXiv.org.
    44. Frank M. A. Klingert & Matthias Meyer, 2018. "Comparing Prediction Market Mechanisms: An Experiment-Based and Micro Validated Multi-Agent Simulation," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 21(1), pages 1-7.
    45. Hajime Mizuyama & Seiyu Yamaguchi & Mizuho Sato, 2019. "A Prediction Market-Based Gamified Approach to Enhance Knowledge Sharing in Organizations," Simulation & Gaming, , vol. 50(5), pages 572-597, October.
    46. Bradly Alicea, 2014. "Contextual and Structural Representations of Market-mediated Economic Value," Papers 1403.7021, arXiv.org.
    47. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
    48. Arman Abgaryan & Utkarsh Sharma, 2023. "Dynamic Function Market Maker," Papers 2307.13624, arXiv.org.
    49. Rafael Frongillo, 2022. "Quantum Information Elicitation," Papers 2203.07469, arXiv.org.
    50. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    51. Niklas Valentin Lehmann, 2023. "Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: A comparison of exchange rate forecasts," Papers 2312.09081, arXiv.org.
    52. Vijay Mohan, 2022. "Automated market makers and decentralized exchanges: a DeFi primer," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-48, December.
    53. Johan Perols & Kaushal Chari & Manish Agrawal, 2009. "Information Market-Based Decision Fusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 827-842, May.
    54. Razvan Tarnaud, 2019. "Convergence within binary market scoring rules," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(4), pages 1017-1050, November.
    55. Guillermo Angeris & Akshay Agrawal & Alex Evans & Tarun Chitra & Stephen Boyd, 2021. "Constant Function Market Makers: Multi-Asset Trades via Convex Optimization," Papers 2107.12484, arXiv.org.
    56. Andreas Heusler & Dominik Molitor & Martin Spann, 2019. "How Knowledge Stock Exchanges can increase student success in Massive Open Online Courses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, September.
    57. Yongge Wang, 2020. "Automated Market Makers for Decentralized Finance (DeFi)," Papers 2009.01676, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    58. Tsakas, Elias, 2020. "Robust scoring rules," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(3), July.
    59. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
    60. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Fuller & Orhan Koroglu & Jan Marco Leimeister & Helmut Krcmar, 2012. "The Effects of Prediction Market Design and Price Elasticity on Trading Performance of Users: An Experimental Analysis," Papers 1204.3457, arXiv.org.
    61. Johannes Rude Jensen & Mohsen Pourpouneh & Kurt Nielsen & Omri Ross, 2021. "The Homogenous Properties of Automated Market Makers," Papers 2105.02782, arXiv.org.
    62. Wei Sun & Robin Hanson & Kathryn Blackmond Laskey & Charles Twardy, 2012. "Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets," Papers 1210.4900, arXiv.org.
    63. Hongzhou Chen & Xiaolin Duan & Abdulmotaleb El Saddik & Wei Cai, 2024. "Political Leanings in Web3 Betting: Decoding the Interplay of Political and Profitable Motives," Papers 2407.14844, arXiv.org.
    64. Ueda, Masahiko, 2020. "Common knowledge equilibrium of Boolean securities in distributed information market," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
    65. Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
    66. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
    67. Jan Arvid Berg & Robin Fritsch & Lioba Heimbach & Roger Wattenhofer, 2022. "An Empirical Study of Market Inefficiencies in Uniswap and SushiSwap," Papers 2203.07774, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    68. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
    69. Nicolas Della Penna & Mark D. Reid, 2011. "Bandit Market Makers," Papers 1112.0076, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2013.
    70. Shipra Agrawal & Erick Delage & Mark Peters & Zizhuo Wang & Yinyu Ye, 2011. "A Unified Framework for Dynamic Prediction Market Design," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(3), pages 550-568, June.
    71. Grainger, Daniel & Watkin-Lui, Felecia & Cheer, Karen, 2021. "The value of informed agency for Torres Strait climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    72. Spyros Galanis & Christos A. Ioannou & Stelios Kotronis, 2023. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023_04, Durham University, Department of Economics.
    73. Kensuke Ito, 2024. "Cryptoeconomics and Tokenomics as Economics: A Survey with Opinions," Papers 2407.15715, arXiv.org.
    74. Alex Evans, 2020. "Liquidity Provider Returns in Geometric Mean Markets," Papers 2006.08806, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    75. Florian Teschner & Henner Gimpel, 2018. "Crowd Labor Markets as Platform for Group Decision and Negotiation Research: A Comparison to Laboratory Experiments," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 197-214, April.
    76. Spyros Galanis & Sergei Mikhalishchev, 2024. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information Acquisition," Papers 2406.07186, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.

  15. Robin Hanson, 2003. "For Bayesian Wannabes, Are Disagreements Not About Information?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 105-123, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Amir Konigsberg, 2012. "The real problem of disagreement," Discussion Paper Series dp608, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    2. Hamed Amini & Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2023. "Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books," Papers 2307.08768, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

  16. Hanson, Robin, 2002. "Disagreement is unpredictable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 365-369, November.

    Cited by:

    1. Robin Hanson, 2003. "For Bayesian Wannabes, Are Disagreements Not About Information?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 105-123, March.
    2. Hamed Amini & Maxim Bichuch & Zachary Feinstein, 2023. "Decentralized Prediction Markets and Sports Books," Papers 2307.08768, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    3. Elias Tsakas, 2011. "Aggregate information, common knowledge and agreeing not to bet," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 40(1), pages 111-117, February.
    4. Tsakas, Elias, 2007. "Aggregate information, common knowledge, and agreeing not to bet," Working Papers in Economics 254, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.

  17. Robin Hanson, 1998. "Consensus By Identifying Extremists," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 293-301, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Robin Hanson, 2003. "For Bayesian Wannabes, Are Disagreements Not About Information?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 105-123, March.
    2. Hanson, Robin, 2002. "Disagreement is unpredictable," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 365-369, November.
    3. Elias Tsakas, 2011. "Aggregate information, common knowledge and agreeing not to bet," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 40(1), pages 111-117, February.
    4. Schmidt, Carsten & Strobel, Martin & Volkland, Henning Oskar, 2008. "Accuracy, certainty and surprise : a prediction market on the outcome of the 2002 FIFA World Cup," Papers 08-13, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    5. Tsakas, Elias, 2007. "Aggregate information, common knowledge, and agreeing not to bet," Working Papers in Economics 254, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Robin Hanson, 2003. "Combinatorial Information Market Design," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 107-119, January.

  18. Hanson, Robin, 1996. "Correction to McKelvey and Page, "Public and Private Information: An Experimental Study of Information Pooling"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1223-1224, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Steffen Andersen & John Fountain & Glenn W. Harrison & E. Elisabet Rutström, 2010. "Estimating Subjective Probabilities," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2010-08, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
    2. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Measuring agents' reaction to private and public information in games with strategic complementarities," Post-Print halshs-00811951, HAL.
    3. Robin Hanson, 1998. "Consensus By Identifying Extremists," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 293-301, June.

Books

  1. Hanson, Robin, 2016. "The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life when Robots Rule the Earth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198754626.

    Cited by:

    1. Ryan H. Murphy, 2024. "Prediction markets as meta‐episteme: Artificial intelligence, forecasting tournaments, prediction markets, and economic growth," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(2), pages 383-392, March.

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