IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jhucap/doi10.1086-690650.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Academic Drop-Out and the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Effrosyni Adamopoulou
  • Giulia Martina Tanzi

Abstract

We use data on three cohorts of university students in Italy to study how the Great Recession affected their drop-out probability. On the one hand, the deterioration of their families’ financial condition could lead to higher drop-out probability. On the other hand, the lower opportunity cost of tertiary education could translate into stronger incentives to continue studying. We examine these two channels, using the adult and youth unemployment rates and exploiting their variation across regions, genders, and educational levels. We find that, netting out any potential effect on enrollment, the drop-out probability decreased as a result of the Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2017. "Academic Drop-Out and the Great Recession," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 35-71.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/690650
    DOI: 10.1086/690650
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/690650
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/690650
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/690650?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen V. Cameron & Christopher Taber, 2004. "Estimation of Educational Borrowing Constraints Using Returns to Schooling," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 132-182, February.
    2. Hershbein Brad J., 2012. "Graduating High School in a Recession: Work, Education, and Home Production," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-32, January.
    3. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2008. "The Effect of Credit Constraints on the College Drop-Out Decision: A Direct Approach Using a New Panel Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2163-2184, December.
    4. Michael F. Lovenheim, 2011. "The Effect of Liquid Housing Wealth on College Enrollment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(4), pages 741-771.
    5. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    6. John Bound & Michael F. Lovenheim & Sarah Turner, 2010. "Why Have College Completion Rates Declined? An Analysis of Changing Student Preparation and Collegiate Resources," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 129-157, July.
    7. Michael F. Lovenheim & C. Lockwood Reynolds, 2013. "The Effect of Housing Wealth on College Choice: Evidence from the Housing Boom," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 48(1), pages 1-35.
    8. Philippe Belley & Lance Lochner, 2007. "The Changing Role of Family Income and Ability in Determining Educational Achievement," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 37-89.
    9. Sauro Mocetti, 2012. "Educational choices and the selection process: before and after compulsory schooling," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 189-209, February.
    10. Petrongolo, Barbara & San Segundo, Maria J., 2002. "Staying-on at school at 16: the impact of labor market conditions in Spain," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 353-365, August.
    11. Bezemer, D.J., 2009. "No one saw this coming. Understanding financial crisis through accounting models," Research Report 09002, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. Federico Cingano & Piero Cipollone, 2007. "University drop-out. The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 626, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Julian R. Betts & Laurel L. McFarland, 1995. "Safe Port in a Storm: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Community College Enrollments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(4), pages 741-765.
    14. Bridget Terry Long, 2014. "The Financial Crisis and College Enrollment: How Have Students and Their Families Responded?," NBER Chapters, in: How the Financial Crisis and Great Recession Affected Higher Education, pages 209-233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "“No One Saw This Coming”: Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models," MPRA Paper 15892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:dgr:rugsom:09002 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Matthew Wiswall & Basit Zafar, 2015. "How Do College Students Respond to Public Information about Earnings?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 117-169.
    18. Matteo Bugamelli & Riccardo Cristadoro & Giordano Zevi, 2009. "The international crisis and the Italian productive system: a firm-level study," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 58, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Lucia Rizzica, 2013. "Home or away? Gender differences in the effects of an expansion of tertiary education supply," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 181, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Julian R. Betts, 1996. "What Do Students Know about Wages? Evidence from a Survey of Undergraduates," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(1), pages 27-56.
    21. Robert Jensen, 2010. "The (Perceived) Returns to Education and the Demand for Schooling," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 515-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marta De Philippis, 2017. "The dynamics of the Italian labour force participation rate: determinants and implications for the employment and unemployment rate," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 396, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Adamopoulou, Effrosyni & Olivieri, Elisabetta & Triviza, Eleftheria, 2024. "Eating habits, food consumption, and health: The role of early life experiences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. Matsuda, Kazushige & Mazur, Karol, 2022. "College education and income contingent loans in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 100-117.
    4. Etienne Dagorn & Léonard Moulin, 2023. "Dropping Out of University in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 276, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
    5. Lisa Simon, 2018. "Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices," ifo Working Paper Series 281, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    6. Ahn, Kunwon & Lee, Jun Yeong & Winters, John V., 2020. "Employment Opportunities and High School Completion during the COVID-19 Recession," ISU General Staff Papers 202010190700001114, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Francesca Modena & Giulia Martina Tanzi & Enrico Rettore, 2018. "The effect of grants on university drop-out rates: evidence on the Italian case," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1193, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Bonacini, Luca, 2020. "Unequal effects of the economic cycle on human capital investment. Evidence from Italian panel data," GLO Discussion Paper Series 733, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2018. "The economics of university dropouts and delayed graduation: a survey," GLO Discussion Paper Series 189, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2022. "The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Lisa Simon, 2019. "Microeconometric Analyses on Determinants of Individual Labour Market Outcomes," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 83.
    12. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2019. "Delayed Graduation and University Dropout: A Review of Theoretical Approaches," IZA Discussion Papers 12601, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Bradley, Steve & Migali, Giuseppe, 2019. "The effects of the 2006 tuition fee reform and the Great Recession on university student dropout behaviour in the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 331-356.
    14. Murat Demirci & Meltem Poyraz, 2021. "Post-Compulsory Schooling of Youth in Turkey during the Great Recession: A Case of Pro-cyclical Enrollment," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2117, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    15. Francesca Modena & Santiago Pereda-Fernández & Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "On the Design of Grant Assignment Rules," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 3-40.
    16. Iacopo Odoardi, 2020. "Can parents’ education lay the foundation for reducing the inactivity of young people? A regional analysis of Italian NEETs," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(1), pages 307-336, April.
    17. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Kertesi & Gábor Kézdi, 2019. "Parental Job Loss, Secondary School Completion and Home Environment," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 69(3), pages 393-423, September.
    18. Cuffe, Harold E & Wills, Olivia, 2018. "Opportunity from disaster: Evidence of the Christchurch earthquake’s effects on high schoolers’ post-graduation outcomes," Working Paper Series 7891, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    19. Isphording, Ingo E. & Raabe, Tobias, 2019. "Early Identification of College Dropouts Using Machine-Learning: Conceptual Considerations and an Empirical Example," IZA Research Reports 89, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "Scars of Youth Non-employment and Labour Market Conditions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 475-499, July.
    21. Franziska Hampf & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2020. "The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8252, CESifo.
    22. Cuffe, Harold E & Wills, Olivia, 2018. "Opportunity from disaster: Evidence of the Christchurch earthquake’s effects on high schoolers’ post-graduation outcomes," Working Paper Series 20850, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    23. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2014. "Academic performance and the Great Recession," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 970, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Emanuela Ghignoni, 2015. "Family background and university dropouts during the crisis: the case of Italy," Working Papers in Public Economics 169, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    3. Gurgand, Marc & Lorenceau, Adrien & Mélonio, Thomas, 2023. "Student loans: Credit constraints and higher education in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    4. Bryan A. Stuart, 2022. "The Long-Run Effects of Recessions on Education and Income," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 42-74, January.
    5. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    6. George Bulman & Robert Fairlie & Sarena Goodman & Adam Isen, 2021. "Parental Resources and College Attendance: Evidence from Lottery Wins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1201-1240, April.
    7. Steven J. Haider & Kathleen McGarry, 2018. "Postsecondary Schooling and Parental Resources: Evidence from the PSID and HRS," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 13(1), pages 72-96, Winter.
    8. Sandra E. Black & Jeffrey T. Denning & Lisa J. Dettling & Sarena Goodman & Lesley J. Turner, 2023. "Taking It to the Limit: Effects of Increased Student Loan Availability on Attainment, Earnings, and Financial Well-Being," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3357-3400, December.
    9. Delavande, Adeline & Zafar, Basit, 2014. "University choice: the role of expected earnings, non-pecuniary outcomes and financial constraints," ISER Working Paper Series 2014-38, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    10. Jeffrey T. Denning, 2019. "Born under a Lucky Star: Financial Aid, College Completion, Labor Supply, and Credit Constraints," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 54(3), pages 760-784.
    11. Alberto Tumino, 2013. "The effect of local labour market conditions on educational choices: a cross country comparison," ImPRovE Working Papers 13/06, Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy, University of Antwerp.
    12. Dillender, Marcus & Friedson, Andrew & Gian, Cong & Simon, Kosali, 2019. "Does the healthcare educational market respond to short-run local demand?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Garrett Anstreicher, 2024. "Family Resources and Human Capital in Economic Downturns," Working Papers 24-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    14. Jeremy Kirk, 2024. "The Impact of Parental Resources on Human Capital Investment and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the Great Recession," Working Papers 24-34, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    15. Johnson, Eric & Reynolds, C. Lockwood, 2013. "The effect of household hospitalizations on the educational attainment of youth," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 165-182.
    16. Braxton, John Carter & Chikhale, Nisha & Herkenhoff, Kyle & Phillips, Gordon, 2024. "Intergenerational Mobility and Credit," IZA Discussion Papers 16826, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Lance J. Lochner & Alexander Monge-Naranjo, 2011. "The Nature of Credit Constraints and Human Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2487-2529, October.
    18. Andrews, Rodney J. & Imberman, Scott A. & Lovenheim, Michael F., 2020. "Recruiting and supporting low-income, high-achieving students at flagship universities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    20. Buly A. Cardak & Joe Vecci, 2016. "Graduates, Dropouts and Slow Finishers: The Effects of Credit Constraints on University Outcomes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(3), pages 323-346, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/690650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JHC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.