IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ifowps/_281.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices

Author

Listed:
  • Lisa Simon

Abstract

Whether individuals choose occupations that teach general or specific skills can have important implications on how protected they are from changing conditions on the labor market. This paper looks at the impact of growing up in a region exposed to structural change caused by import competition on vocational occupation choices using longitudinal social security data for Germany. Results show that individuals enter more skill-specific occupations like manufacturing and less general occupations like services if exposed to higher local import competition. Lifetime earnings are adversely affected, which can be attributed to vocational occupation choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Lisa Simon, 2018. "Shocking Choice: Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets and Vocational Occupation Choices," ifo Working Paper Series 281, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_281
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/wp-2018-281-simon-shocking-choice.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justine S. Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2014. "Are Some Degrees Worth More than Others? Evidence from College Admission Cutoffs in Chile," Working Papers 2014-5, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    2. Markus Nagler & Marc Piopiunik & Martin R. West, 2020. "Weak Markets, Strong Teachers: Recession at Career Start and Teacher Effectiveness," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 38(2), pages 453-500.
    3. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Wössmann, 2006. "Does Educational Tracking Affect Performance and Inequality? Differences- in-Differences Evidence Across Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(510), pages 63-76, March.
    4. Wolfgang Dauth & Sebastian Findeisen & Jens Suedekum, 2014. "The Rise Of The East And The Far East: German Labor Markets And Trade Integration," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(6), pages 1643-1675, December.
    5. Stockinger, Bastian & Zwick, Thomas, 2016. "Apprentice Poaching in Regional Labor Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145565, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2006. "Technical Change, Job Tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking outside the Wage Structure," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(2), pages 235-270, April.
    7. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    8. Nagler, Markus & Piopiunik, Marc & West, Martin R., 2015. "Weak Markets, Strong Teachers," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112949, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    10. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    11. Samuel Lüthi & Stefan C. Wolter, 2020. "Are apprenticeships business cycle proof?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Franziska Hampf & Ludger Woessmann, 2017. "Vocational vs. General Education and Employment over the Life Cycle: New Evidence from PIAAC," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 255-269.
    13. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    14. Paul Oyer, 2006. "Initial Labor Market Conditions and Long-Term Outcomes for Economists," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 143-160, Summer.
    15. Antoni, Manfred & Ganzer, Andreas & Vom Berge, Philipp, 2016. "Sample of integrated labour market biographies (SIAB) 1975-2014," FDZ Datenreport. Documentation on Labour Market Data 201604_en, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Eggenberger, Christian & Rinawi, Miriam & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2018. "Occupational specificity: A new measurement based on training curricula and its effect on labor market outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 97-107.
    17. Dirk Krueger & Krishna B. Kumar, 2004. "Skill-Specific rather than General Education: A Reason for US--Europe Growth Differences?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 167-207, June.
    18. David Card & John E. DiNardo, 2002. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and Rising Wage Inequality: Some Problems and Puzzles," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(4), pages 733-783, October.
    19. Liu, Kai & Salvanes, Kjell G. & Sørensen, Erik Ø., 2016. "Good skills in bad times: Cyclical skill mismatch and the long-term effects of graduating in a recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 3-17.
    20. Shimeng Liu & Weizeng Sun & John V. Winters, 2019. "Up In Stem, Down In Business: Changing College Major Decisions With The Great Recession," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(3), pages 476-491, July.
    21. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    22. Timothy J. Bartik, 1991. "Who Benefits from State and Local Economic Development Policies?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wbsle.
    23. Christina Gathmann & Uta Schönberg, 2010. "How General Is Human Capital? A Task-Based Approach," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-49, January.
    24. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1997. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," Working Papers 756, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    25. Regula Geel & Uschi Backes-Gellner, 2009. "Occupational Mobility Within and Between Skill Clusters: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Skill-Weights Approach," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0047, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW), revised Mar 2011.
    26. Justine S. Hastings & Christopher A. Neilson & Seth D. Zimmerman, 2013. "Are Some Degrees Worth More than Others? Evidence from college admission cutoffs in Chile," NBER Working Papers 19241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Oddbjørn Raaum & Knut Røed, 2006. "Do Business Cycle Conditions at the Time of Labor Market Entry Affect Future Employment Prospects?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(2), pages 193-210, May.
    28. Effrosyni Adamopoulou & Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2017. "Academic Drop-Out and the Great Recession," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 11(1), pages 35-71.
    29. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    30. Julian R. Betts & Laurel L. McFarland, 1995. "Safe Port in a Storm: The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Community College Enrollments," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(4), pages 741-765.
    31. repec:iab:iabfda:201604(en is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Philip Oreopoulos & Uros Petronijevic, 2013. "Making College Worth It: A Review of Research on the Returns to Higher Education," NBER Working Papers 19053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eggenberger, Christian & Janssen, Simon & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "The value of specific skills under shock: High risks and high returns," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lisa Simon, 2019. "Microeconometric Analyses on Determinants of Individual Labour Market Outcomes," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 83, May.
    2. David J Deming & Kadeem Noray, 2020. "Earnings Dynamics, Changing Job Skills, and STEM Careers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(4), pages 1965-2005.
    3. Franziska Hampf & Marc Piopiunik & Simon Wiederhold, 2020. "The Effects of Graduating from High School in a Recession: College Investments, Skill Formation, and Labor-Market Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 8252, CESifo.
    4. Erica Blom & Brian C. Cadena & Benjamin J. Keys, 2021. "Investment over the Business Cycle: Insights from College Major Choice," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(4), pages 1043-1082.
    5. Janssen, Simon & Mohrenweiser, Jens, 2018. "The Shelf Life of Incumbent Workers during Accelerating Technological Change: Evidence from a Training Regulation Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 11312, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Joseph G. Altonji & Ling Zhong, 2021. "The Labor Market Returns to Advanced Degrees," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 303-360.
    7. Alena Bičáková & Guido Matias Cortes & Jacopo Mazza, 2021. "Caught in the Cycle: Economic Conditions at Enrolment and Labour Market Outcomes of College Graduates," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(638), pages 2383-2412.
    8. Fraser Summerfield & Ioannis Theodossiou, 2017. "The Effects Of Macroeconomic Conditions At Graduation On Overeducation," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1370-1387, July.
    9. Bičáková, Alena & Cortes, Guido Matias & Mazza, Jacopo, 2023. "Make your own luck: The wage gains from starting college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Ipsita Roy & Davide Consoli, 2018. "Employment Polarization in Germany: Role of Technology, Trade and Human Capital," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 61(2), pages 251-279, June.
    11. Jennifer Graves & Zoë Kuehn, 2022. "Higher education decisions and macroeconomic conditions at age eighteen," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 171-241, May.
    12. Titan Alon, 2018. "Earning More by Doing Less: Human Capital Specialization and the College Wage Premium," 2018 Meeting Papers 497, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. David Hémous & Morten Olsen, 2022. "The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation, and Income Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 179-223, January.
    14. Esther Mirjam Girsberger & Miriam Rinawi & Matthias Krapf, 2018. "Wages and employment: The role of occupational skills," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0153, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    15. Bruno Funchal & Jandir Soares Junior, 2013. "Understanding demand for skylls after technological trade liberalization," Fucape Working Papers 40, Fucape Business School.
    16. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    17. Ross, Matthew B., 2017. "Routine-biased technical change: Panel evidence of task orientation and wage effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 198-214.
    18. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    19. Rendall, Michelle & Weiss, Franziska J., 2016. "Employment polarization and the role of the apprenticeship system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 166-186.
    20. Fabian Eckert & Sharat Ganapati & Conor Walsh, 2020. "Urban-Biased Growth: A Macroeconomic Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8705, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.