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Optimized Neural Network Prediction Model for Potential Evapotranspiration Utilizing Ensemble Procedure

Author

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  • Ahmed El-Shafie
  • Ali Najah
  • Humod Alsulami
  • Heerbod Jahanbani

Abstract

Potential evapotranspiration (ET o ) is an essential hydrologic parameter for having better understanding for hydrologic cycle in certain catchment area. In addition, ET o is vital for calculating the agricultural demand. In fact, Penman-Monteith (PM) method is considered as reference method for estimating (ET o ), however, this method required a lot of data to be used which is not usually available in many catchment areas. Furthermore, there are several efforts that have been performed as competitor to reach accurate estimation of (ET o ) when there is lack of data to utilize (PM) method, but still required numerous research. Recently, methods based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) have been suggested to provide reliable prediction model for several application in engineering and especially for hydrological process. However, time series prediction based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) learning algorithms is fundamentally difficult and faces problem. One of the major shortcomings is that the ANN model experiences over-fitting problem during training session and also occurs when a neural network loses its generalization. In this research a modification for the classical Multi Layer Preceptron- Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN) modeling namely; Ensemble Neural Network (ENN) is proposed and applied for predicting daily ET o . The proposed model applied at two different region with two different climatic conditions, Rasht city located north part of Iran and Johor Bahru City, Johor, Malaysia using maximum and minimum daily temperature collected from 1975 to 2005. The result showed that the ENN outperformed the classical MLP-ANN method and successfully predict daily ETo utilizing maximum and minimum temperature only with satisfactory level of accuracy. In addition, the proposed model could achieve accuracy level better than the traditional competitor methods for ET o . Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed El-Shafie & Ali Najah & Humod Alsulami & Heerbod Jahanbani, 2014. "Optimized Neural Network Prediction Model for Potential Evapotranspiration Utilizing Ensemble Procedure," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 947-967, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:4:p:947-967
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0526-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Muhammad Sulaiman & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Karim & Hassan Basri, 2011. "Improved Water Level Forecasting Performance by Using Optimal Steepness Coefficients in an Artificial Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2525-2541, August.
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    1. Mohammad Valipour, 2014. "Use of average data of 181 synoptic stations for estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration by temperature-based methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4237-4255, September.
    2. Valipour, Mohammad & Gholami Sefidkouhi, Mohammad Ali & Raeini−Sarjaz, Mahmoud, 2017. "Selecting the best model to estimate potential evapotranspiration with respect to climate change and magnitudes of extreme events," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 180(PA), pages 50-60.
    3. Xiaohu Wen & Jianhua Si & Zhibin He & Jun Wu & Hongbo Shao & Haijiao Yu, 2015. "Support-Vector-Machine-Based Models for Modeling Daily Reference Evapotranspiration With Limited Climatic Data in Extreme Arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3195-3209, July.
    4. Vinay Kumar Gautam & Chaitanya B. Pande & Kanak N. Moharir & Abhay M. Varade & Nitin Liladhar Rane & Johnbosco C. Egbueri & Fahad Alshehri, 2023. "Prediction of Sodium Hazard of Irrigation Purpose using Artificial Neural Network Modelling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Gebdang B. Ruben & Ke Zhang & Hongjun Bao & Xirong Ma, 2018. "Application and Sensitivity Analysis of Artificial Neural Network for Prediction of Chemical Oxygen Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 273-283, January.
    6. Ozgur Kisi & Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2014. "Comparison of Two Different Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems in Modelling Daily Reference Evapotranspiration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(9), pages 2655-2675, July.
    7. Mohammed Falah Allawi & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2016. "Utilizing RBF-NN and ANFIS Methods for Multi-Lead ahead Prediction Model of Evaporation from Reservoir," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4773-4788, October.
    8. Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko & Anamarija Rabi & Marija Šperac, 2014. "Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks in Modeling the Water-Air Temperature Relationship of the River Drava," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1379-1394, March.
    9. Mohammed Seyam & Faridah Othman & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2017. "RBFNN Versus Empirical Models for Lag Time Prediction in Tropical Humid Rivers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(1), pages 187-204, January.
    10. Ruiming, Fang & Shijie, Song, 2020. "Daily reference evapotranspiration prediction of Tieguanyin tea plants based on mathematical morphology clustering and improved generalized regression neural network," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    11. Kichul Jung & Deg-Hyo Bae & Myoung-Jin Um & Siyeon Kim & Seol Jeon & Daeryong Park, 2020. "Evaluation of Nitrate Load Estimations Using Neural Networks and Canonical Correlation Analysis with K-Fold Cross-Validation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.

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