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Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts

Author

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  • Yang, Yang
  • Cui, Yuanlai
  • Luo, Yufeng
  • Lyu, Xinwei
  • Traore, Seydou
  • Khan, Shahbaz
  • Wang, Weiguang

Abstract

Short-term daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts are required to facilitate real-time irrigation decision making. We forecasted daily 7-day-ahead ETo using the Penman–Monteith (PM) model and public weather forecasts. Public weather forecast data, including daily maximum and minimum temperatures, weather types and wind scales, for six stations located in a wide range of climate zones of China were collected. Weather types and wind scales were converted to sunshine duration and wind speed to forecast ETo. Meanwhile, daily meteorological data for the same period and locations were collected to calculate ETo, which served as reference standard for evaluating forecasting performance. The results showed that the forecasting performance for the minimum temperature was the best, followed by maximum temperature, sunshine duration and wind speed. Also, it was found that using public weather forecasts and the PM model improved the forecasting performance of daily ETo compared to those obtained when using the HS model with temperature forecasts as the only input data, and this improvement was because the weather type and wind scale forecasts also have positive influence on ETo forecasting. Further, the greatest impact on ETo forecasting error was found to be caused by the errors in sunshine duration and wind speed, followed by maximum and minimum temperature forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Yang & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng & Lyu, Xinwei & Traore, Seydou & Khan, Shahbaz & Wang, Weiguang, 2016. "Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 329-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:177:y:2016:i:c:p:329-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2016.08.020
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    1. Yufeng Luo & Seydou Traore & Xinwei Lyu & Weiguang Wang & Ying Wang & Yongyu Xie & Xiyun Jiao & Guy Fipps, 2015. "Medium Range Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting by Using ANN and Public Weather Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3863-3876, August.
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    3. Qin, Shujing & Liu, Zhihe & Qiu, Rangjian & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Jingwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios, 2023. "Short–term global solar radiation forecasting based on an improved method for sunshine duration prediction and public weather forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    4. Cao, Jingjing & Tan, Junwei & Cui, Yuanlai & Luo, Yufeng, 2019. "Irrigation scheduling of paddy rice using short-term weather forecast data," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 714-723.
    5. Ruiming, Fang & Shijie, Song, 2020. "Daily reference evapotranspiration prediction of Tieguanyin tea plants based on mathematical morphology clustering and improved generalized regression neural network," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Chen, Mengting & Cui, Yuanlai & Wang, Xiaonan & Xie, Hengwang & Liu, Fangping & Luo, Tongyuan & Zheng, Shizong & Luo, Yufeng, 2021. "A reinforcement learning approach to irrigation decision-making for rice using weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    7. Qiu, Rangjian & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Jingwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Liu, Zhihe & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Yang, Xiumei & Hu, Wei & Clothier, Brent, 2023. "Short–term forecasting of daily evapotranspiration from rice using a modified Priestley–Taylor model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    8. Yang, Yang & Cui, Yuanlai & Bai, Kaihua & Luo, Tongyuan & Dai, Junfeng & Wang, Weiguang & Luo, Yufeng, 2019. "Short-term forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using the reduced-set Penman-Monteith model and public weather forecasts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 70-80.
    9. Yang, Yang & Luo, Yufeng & Wu, Conglin & Zheng, Hezhen & Zhang, Lei & Cui, Yuanlai & Sun, Ningning & Wang, Li, 2019. "Evaluation of six equations for daily reference evapotranspiration estimating using public weather forecast message for different climate regions across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 386-399.
    10. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Wu, Lifeng & Agathokleous, Evgenios & Liu, Chunwei & Zhang, Baozhong & Luo, Yufeng & Sun, Shanlei, 2022. "Modeling daily global solar radiation using only temperature data: Past, development, and future," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    11. Yinge Liu & Keke Yu & Yaqian Zhao & Jiangchuan Bao, 2022. "Impacts of Climatic Variation and Human Activity on Runoff in Western China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, January.
    12. Qiu, Rangjian & Li, Longan & Liu, Chunwei & Wang, Zhenchang & Zhang, Baozhong & Liu, Zhandong, 2022. "Evapotranspiration estimation using a modified crop coefficient model in a rotated rice-winter wheat system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    13. Zhang, Kang & Xie, Xianhong & Zhu, Bowen & Meng, Shanshan & Yao, Yi, 2019. "Unexpected groundwater recovery with decreasing agricultural irrigation in the Yellow River Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 858-867.
    14. Longo-Minnolo, G. & Vanella, D. & Consoli, S. & Intrigliolo, D.S. & Ramírez-Cuesta, J.M., 2020. "Integrating forecast meteorological data into the ArcDualKc model for estimating spatially distributed evapotranspiration rates of a citrus orchard," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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