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Improved Water Level Forecasting Performance by Using Optimal Steepness Coefficients in an Artificial Neural Network

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  • Muhammad Sulaiman
  • Ahmed El-Shafie
  • Othman Karim
  • Hassan Basri

Abstract

Developing water level forecasting models is essential in water resources management and flood prediction. Accurate water level forecasting helps achieve efficient and optimum use of water resources and minimize flooding damages. The artificial neural network (ANN) is a computing model that has been successfully tested in many forecasting studies, including river flow. Improving the ANN computational approach could help produce accurate forecasting results. Most studies conducted to date have used a sigmoid function in a multi-layer perceptron neural network as the basis of the ANN; however, they have not considered the effect of sigmoid steepness on the forecasting results. In this study, the effectiveness of the steepness coefficient (SC) in the sigmoid function of an ANN model designed to test the accuracy of 1-day water level forecasts was investigated. The performance of data training and data validation were evaluated using the statistical index efficiency coefficient and root mean square error. The weight initialization was fixed at 0.5 in the ANN so that even comparisons could be made between models. Three hundred rounds of data training were conducted using five ANN architectures, six datasets and 10 steepness coefficients. The results showed that the optimal SC improved the forecasting accuracy of the ANN data training and data validation when compared with the standard SC. Importantly, the performance of ANN data training improved significantly with utilization of the optimal SC. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Sulaiman & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Karim & Hassan Basri, 2011. "Improved Water Level Forecasting Performance by Using Optimal Steepness Coefficients in an Artificial Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2525-2541, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:10:p:2525-2541
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9824-z
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    2. Meral Buyukyildiz & Gulay Tezel & Volkan Yilmaz, 2014. "Estimation of the Change in Lake Water Level by Artificial Intelligence Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4747-4763, October.
    3. Ahmed El-Shafie & Ali Najah & Humod Alsulami & Heerbod Jahanbani, 2014. "Optimized Neural Network Prediction Model for Potential Evapotranspiration Utilizing Ensemble Procedure," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 947-967, March.
    4. Tao Guo & Wei He & Zhonglian Jiang & Xiumin Chu & Reza Malekian & Zhixiong Li, 2018. "An Improved LSSVM Model for Intelligent Prediction of the Daily Water Level," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Jalal Shiri & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Ozgur Kisi & Sepideh Karimi & Seyyed M Bateni & Seyed Hossein Hosseini Nezhad & Arsalan Hashemi, 2016. "Prediction of Water-Level in the Urmia Lake Using the Extreme Learning Machine Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(14), pages 5217-5229, November.
    6. Gokmen Tayfur & Ata Nadiri & Asghar Moghaddam, 2014. "Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine Method for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1173-1184, March.
    7. Taymoor Awchi, 2014. "River Discharges Forecasting In Northern Iraq Using Different ANN Techniques," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 801-814, February.

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