IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/ssefpa/v15y2023i2d10.1007_s12571-022-01319-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger

Author

Listed:
  • Kayenat Kabir
  • Uris Lantz C. Baldos

    (Purdue University
    Purdue University)

  • Thomas W. Hertel

    (Purdue University
    Purdue University)

Abstract

The world economy has largely overcome the Malthusian challenge, but there are regions such as the Sahel where this challenge remains formidable and food insecurity is exacerbated by multiple threats of climate change, low agricultural productivity, and high population growth. While the interactions among these forces governing long-term food security are widely discussed for policy making in the Sahel, analysis of the comparative magnitude of the forces in the resulting food security outcomes is largely absent. In this paper, we identify the relative contribution of these long-term drivers of food security outcomes in rural and urban Niger into 2050. We then consider three policy scenarios to address food security issues: accelerated investments in agricultural R&D (supply side), reduction of fertility rates (demand side), and market integration. We use a historically validated partial equilibrium model tailored to Nigerien agriculture, with data inputs gleaned from various sources, including household and farm surveys and grid-cell level production data. Our study finds that among growth in population, income, and agricultural productivity and climate change impacts on yields and labor productivity, population growth in Niger will remain the single largest driver of crop output growth and undernourishment in the country. Three-fourths of the increase in undernourished population is projected to be among the urban population. Climate change impacts on agricultural productivity will have differential impacts on undernourishment prevalence among rural and urban population, pushing an additional 2 million people into undernourishment by 2050. The relative impacts of climate change are larger among the rural population offsetting revenue gains from increased crop prices. We emphasize that feasible advancements in agricultural productivity are likely to be outpaced by rapid population growth and climate change setbacks unless simultaneous actions are taken on the demand side. On the supply side, interventions are required in transforming R&D spending into higher farm productivity. Greater integration into regional markets will also aide in mitigating undernourishment prevalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Kayenat Kabir & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2023. "The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 455-476, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:15:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s12571-022-01319-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12571-022-01319-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Schultz, T., 2002. "Why Governments Should Invest More to Educate Girls," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 207-225, February.
    2. Rachel Griffith & Stephen Redding & John Van Reenen, 2004. "Mapping the Two Faces of R&D: Productivity Growth in a Panel of OECD Industries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 883-895, November.
    3. Seydou Zakari & Liu Ying & Baohui Song, 2014. "Market Integration and Spatial Price Transmission in Niger Grain Markets," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(2), pages 264-273, June.
    4. Asfaw, Solomon & Pallante, Giacomo & Palma, Alessandro, 2018. "Diversification Strategies and Adaptation Deficit: Evidence from Rural Communities in Niger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 219-234.
    5. Fuglie, Keith O. & Wang, Sun Ling, 2012. "Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture Shifting to Developing Countries," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1-7.
    6. Solomon Asfaw & Federica Di Battista & Leslie Lipper, 2016. "Agricultural Technology Adoption under Climate Change in the Sahel: Micro-evidence from Niger," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(5), pages 637-669.
    7. Philip K. Thornton & Mario Herrero, 2015. "Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 830-836, September.
    8. Camilo Mora & Abby G. Frazier & Ryan J. Longman & Rachel S. Dacks & Maya M. Walton & Eric J. Tong & Joseph J. Sanchez & Lauren R. Kaiser & Yuko O. Stender & James M. Anderson & Christine M. Ambrosino , 2013. "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 502(7470), pages 183-187, October.
    9. Babatunde O. Abidoye & Ayodele F. Odusola, 2015. "Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 24(2), pages 277-301.
    10. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    11. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2014. "Global food security in 2050: the role of agricultural productivity and climate change," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 554-570, October.
    13. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    14. Hertel, Thomas & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Fuglie, Keith O., 2019. "Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenge of the 21st Century," Conference papers 333121, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. repec:oup:apecpp:v:40:y:2018:i:3:p:421-444. is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    17. Steven A. Block, 2014. "The post-independence decline and rise of crop productivity in sub-Saharan Africa: measurement and explanations," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 373-396.
    18. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Fuglie, Keith O. & Rada, Nicholas E., 2013. "Resources, Policies, and Agricultural Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Research Report 145368, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    20. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Reij, Chris & Tappan, Gary & Smale, Melinda, 2009. "Agroenvironmental transformation in the Sahel: Another kind of “Green Revolution"," IFPRI discussion papers 914, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    22. Malcolm Potts & Courtney Henderson & Martha Campbell, 2013. "The Sahel: A Malthusian Challenge?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 501-512, August.
    23. Thomas W. Hertel, 2011. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?-super- 1," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275.
    24. Noah Diffenbaugh & Filippo Giorgi, 2012. "Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 813-822, October.
    25. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    26. Keijiro Otsuka & Rie Muraoka, 2017. "A Green Revolution for Sub-Saharan Africa: Past Failures and Future Prospects," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(suppl_1), pages 73-98.
    27. Backiny-Yetna,Prospere R. & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Backiny-Yetna,Prospere R. & Mcgee,Kevin Robert, 2015. "Gender differentials and agricultural productivity in Niger," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7199, The World Bank.
    28. Jenny C. Aker, 2010. "Information from Markets Near and Far: Mobile Phones and Agricultural Markets in Niger," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 46-59, July.
    29. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    30. Clapp, Jennifer, 2017. "Food self-sufficiency: Making sense of it, and when it makes sense," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-96.
    31. Caroline Lesser & Evdokia Moisé-Leeman, 2009. "Informal Cross-Border Trade and Trade Facilitation Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa," OECD Trade Policy Papers 86, OECD Publishing.
    32. Bruce A McCarl & Thomas W Hertel, 2018. "Climate Change as an Agricultural Economics Research Topic," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 60-78.
    33. Cornia, Giovanni Andrea & Deotti, Laura & Sassi, Maria, 2016. "Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 20-30.
    34. Theil, Henri & Finke, Renate, 1983. "The consumer's demand for diversity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 395-400, September.
    35. Cornelia F.A. van Wesenbeeck, 2018. "Disentangling urban and rural food security in West Africa," West African Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    36. Kate Meagher, 2003. "A Back Door to Globalisation? Structural Adjustment, Globalisation & Transborder Trade in West Africa," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(95), pages 57-75, March.
    37. Abidoye, Babatunde & Odusola, Ayodele, 2015. "Climate Change and Economic Growth in Africa: An Econometric Analysis," UNDP Africa Economists Working Papers 307336, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
    38. Brown, Molly E. & Carr, Edward R. & Grace, Kathryn L. & Wiebe, Keith & Funk, Christopher C. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Backlund, Peter & Buja, Lawrence, 2017. "Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 154-159.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas W. Hertel & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2016. "Predicting Long-Term Food Demand, Cropland Use, and Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 417-441, October.
    2. Awudu Abdulai, 2018. "Simon Brand Memorial Address," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 28-39, January.
    3. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Stephan Dietrich & Valerio Giuffrida & Bruno Martorano & Georg Schmerzeck, 2022. "COVID‐19 policy responses, mobility, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 569-588, March.
    5. Baldos, Uris Lantz & Thomas Hertel, 2014. "Bursting the Bubble: A Long Run Perspective on Crop Commodity Prices," GTAP Working Papers 4574, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    6. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    7. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," Conference papers 332691, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Aldieri, Luigi & Bruno, Bruna & Makkonen, Teemu & Vinci, Concetto Paolo, 2023. "Environmental innovations, geographically mediated knowledge spillovers, economic and environmental performance," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Baarsch, Florent & Granadillos, Jessie R. & Hare, William & Knaus, Maria & Krapp, Mario & Schaeffer, Michiel & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2020. "The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "Fertility response to climate shocks," CERDI Working papers halshs-02053100, HAL.
    11. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña‐Duarte & José Maria Gil, 2023. "Drought shocks and price adjustments in local food markets in Chile: Do product quality and marketing channel matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 349-363, May.
    12. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. White, Robin R. & Brady, Michael, 2014. "Can consumers’ willingness to pay incentivize adoption of environmental impact reducing technologies in meat animal production?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 41-49.
    14. Jayne, T.S. & Chamberlin, Jordan & Traub, Lulama & Sitko, N. & Muyanga, Milu & Yeboah, Kwame & Nkonde, Chewe & Anseeuw, Ward & Chapoto, A. & Kachule, Richard, 2015. "Africa’s Changing Farmland Ownership: Causes and Consequences," Miscellaneous Publications 208576, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    15. Calum Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & Jasper van Vliet & Shah Jamal Alam & Peter H Verburg & Mark D Rounsevell, 2014. "Experiments in Globalisation, Food Security and Land Use Decision Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    16. Jerome Dumortier & Miguel Carriquiry & Amani Elobeid, 2021. "Impact of climate change on global agricultural markets under different shared socioeconomic pathways," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(6), pages 963-984, November.
    17. Premand, Patrick & Stoeffler, Quentin, 2022. "Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Victoria Foye, 2022. "Climate Change and Macro Prices in Nigeria: A Nonlinear Analysis," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 20(2 (Summer), pages 167-203.
    19. Mekbib G. Haile & Matthias Kalkuhl & Joachim Braun, 2014. "Inter- and intra-seasonal crop acreage response to international food prices and implications of volatility," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(6), pages 693-710, November.
    20. Afrifa, Godfred Adjapong & Tingbani, Ishmael & Yamoah, Fred & Appiah, Gloria, 2020. "Innovation input, governance and climate change: Evidence from emerging countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:15:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s12571-022-01319-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.