IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/usdami/323866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Gerval, Adam
  • Hansen, James

Abstract

As recent trade disputes have led the United States to broaden export markets, the macroeconomic and developmental characteristics of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) ostensibly indicate the region will likely be a destination for U.S. agricultural exports in upcoming years. However, many of these characteristics are symptomatic of the economic development struggles prevalent in the region, which present significant challenges to sustained development. Trade in high-value commodities, for example, may offer economic growth, but the benefits are not necessarily diffused throughout the broader economy. Serving as the primary source for economic growth, foreign exchange, and export revenue, exports of high-value commodities can create terms-of-trade shocks during periods of significant fluctuations in international prices. This can limit a country’s ability to trade effectively and alter trade flows due to the resultant depreciating exchange rate. The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has created such a period of intense price volatility, offering a unique opportunity for modeling potential effects of a global shock on trade with these nations. This working paper illuminates the impact that this volatility can have on U.S. agricultural product export values to SSA. By simulating the effects of declining oil prices in 2020 and subsequent years through a shock to gross domestic product (GDP) in oil-dependent nations—i.e., Angola and Nigeria—we can evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 on agricultural trade for key U.S. export commodities to SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," USDA Miscellaneous 323866, United States Department of Agriculture.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:usdami:323866
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.323866
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/323866/files/ap-101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.323866?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mustapha, Ishaq Muhammad & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Dutch disease or Nigerian disease: a prima facie? New evidence from ARDL bound test analysis," MPRA Paper 69767, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    4. Olayungbo, D.O., 2019. "Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    5. Hjort, Kim & Boussios, David & Seeley, Ralph & Hansen, James, 2018. "The ERS Country-Commodity Linked System: Documenting Its International Country and Regional Agricultural Baseline Models," Technical Bulletins 282511, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    6. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil, 2020. "Commodity terms of trade shocks and real effective exchange rate dynamics in Africa's commodity-exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    7. Trostle, Ronald & Seeley, Ralph, 2013. "Developing Countries Dominate World Demand for Agricultural Products," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 07, pages 1-1, September.
    8. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager, 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerval, Adam & Hansen, James, 2022. "COVID-19 Working Paper: Single Commodity Export Dependence and the Impacts of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa," Administrative Publications 327336, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Thibault Fally & James Sayre, 2018. "Commodity Trade Matters," 2018 Meeting Papers 172, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Onil Banerjee & Martin Cicowiez & Marcia Macedo & Žiga Malek & Peter Verburg & Sean Goodwin & Renato Vargas & Ludmila Rattis & Paulo M. Brando & Michael T. Coe & Christopher Neill & Octavio Damiani, 2020. "An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0292, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    4. Karen Thome & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen & John C. Beghin, 2016. "Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia with USDA ERS's New Food Security Modeling Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp567, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Wunderlich, A.C. & Kohler, A., 2018. "Using empirical Armington and demand elasticities in computable equilibrium models: An illustration with the CAPRI model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-80.
    6. Mun Ho & Wolfgang Britz & Ruth Delzeit & Florian Leblanc & Roberto Roson & Franziska Schuenemann & Matthias Weitzel, 2020. "Modelling Consumption and Constructing Long-Term Baselines in Final Demand," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 63-108, June.
    7. Seale, James L. & Solano, Alexis A., 2012. "The changing demand for energy in rich and poor countries over 25years," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1834-1844.
    8. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    9. Hertel, By Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris L.C. & Fuglie, Keith O., 2020. "Trade in technology: A potential solution to the food security challenges of the 21st century," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    10. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Al Rawashdeh, Rami, 2022. "The impact of institutional quality and resources rent on health: The case of GCC," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    11. Kira Lancker & Julia Bronnmann, 2022. "Substitution Preferences for Fish in Senegal," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(4), pages 1015-1045, August.
    12. Marco Stenborg Petterson & David Seim & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2023. "Bounds on a Slope from Size Restrictions on Economic Shocks," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 552-572, August.
    13. Meade, Birgit & Muhammad , Andrew, 2017. "The Influence of Income and Prices on Global Dietary Patterns by Country, Age, and Gender," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 10, November.
    14. Wainio, John & Dyck, John & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Mitchell, Lorrarine & Zahniser, Steven & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson F. & Burfisher, Mary E., 2014. "Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Research Report 188429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    15. James A. Edmonds & Robert Link & Stephanie T. Waldhoff & Ryna Cui, 2017. "A Global Food Demand Model For The Assessment Of Complex Human-Earth Systems," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-22, November.
    16. Sands, Ronald D. & Malcolm, Scott A. & Suttles, Shellye A. & Marshall, Elizabeth, 2017. "Dedicated Energy Crops and Competition for Agricultural Land," Economic Research Report 252445, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    18. Hans Lofgren & Martín Cicowiez, 2022. "Taxation, infrastructure investment, growth, and poverty reduction: A case study of Zimbabwe," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0295, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    19. Hu, Yumeng & Liu, Yu, 2024. "Impact of fertilizer and pesticide reductions on land use in China based on crop-land integrated model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    20. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197167, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:usdami:323866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.usda.gov .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.