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The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability

Author

Listed:
  • Camilo Mora

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Abby G. Frazier

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Ryan J. Longman

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Rachel S. Dacks

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Maya M. Walton

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Eric J. Tong

    (Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Joseph J. Sanchez

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Lauren R. Kaiser

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Yuko O. Stender

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • James M. Anderson

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Christine M. Ambrosino

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Iria Fernandez-Silva

    (Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa
    Trans-disciplinary Organization for Subtropical Island Studies (TRO-SIS), University of the Ryukyus, Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan)

  • Louise M. Giuseffi

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

  • Thomas W. Giambelluca

    (University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa)

Abstract

Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

Suggested Citation

  • Camilo Mora & Abby G. Frazier & Ryan J. Longman & Rachel S. Dacks & Maya M. Walton & Eric J. Tong & Joseph J. Sanchez & Lauren R. Kaiser & Yuko O. Stender & James M. Anderson & Christine M. Ambrosino , 2013. "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 502(7470), pages 183-187, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:502:y:2013:i:7470:d:10.1038_nature12540
    DOI: 10.1038/nature12540
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    Cited by:

    1. Hussain, Moon Moon & Pal, Shreya & Villanthenkodath, Muhammed Ashiq, 2023. "Towards sustainable development: The impact of transport infrastructure expenditure on the ecological footprint in India," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    2. Timothy J. Garrett, 2016. "Long-run evolution of the global economy - Part 2: Hindcasts of innovation and growth," Papers 1601.00233, arXiv.org.
    3. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Quezada, George & Adcock, M & Bratanova, Alexandra & Ponce Reyes, R & Hajkowicz, Stefan, 2017. "Surfing the Digital Tsunami: Scenarios Report. Preliminary scenarios exploring the decade ahead for Australian business and the economy," MPRA Paper 113820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Elaheh Shobeiri & Huan Shen & Filippo Genco & Akira Tokuhiro, 2022. "Investigating Long-Term Commitments to Replace Electricity Generation with SMRs and Estimates of Climate Change Impact Costs Using a Modified VENSIM Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy (DICE) Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, May.
    6. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Magdalena Radulescu & Crenguta Ileana Sinisi & Zahid Yousaf, 2021. "Energy Crisis in Pakistan and Economic Progress: Decoupling the Impact of Coal Energy Consumption in Power and Brick Kilns," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-15, August.
    7. Andreea GRECU, 2023. "A Net-Zero World, Climate Technology and Business Models," REVISTA DE MANAGEMENT COMPARAT INTERNATIONAL/REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE MANAGEMENT, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 24(2), pages 270-279, May.
    8. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice:Evidence from Tanzania," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    9. Shafique, Muhammad & Azam, Anam & Rafiq, Muhammad & Luo, Xiaowei, 2021. "Investigating the nexus among transport, economic growth and environmental degradation: Evidence from panel ARDL approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 61-71.
    10. Frances C. Moore, 2017. "Learning, Adaptation, And Weather In A Changing Climate," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 1-21, November.
    11. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Post-Print halshs-01599362, HAL.
    13. Zaneta Kubik, 2017. "Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01599362, HAL.
    14. Diaz, Frédéric & Bănaru, Daniela & Verley, Philippe & Shin, Yunne-Jai, 2019. "Implementation of an end-to-end model of the Gulf of Lions ecosystem (NW Mediterranean Sea). II. Investigating the effects of high trophic levels on nutrients and plankton dynamics and associated feed," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 51-68.
    15. Jihun Ryu & Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang & Jin-Ho Yoon, 2024. "A time of emergence (TOE) analysis on the impact and uncertainty of global warming on Korean peak summers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(7), pages 1-15, July.
    16. Missinhoun Dagoudo & Dogbè Clément Adjahouinou & Nounagnon Darius Tossavi & Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo & Billy Nzau Matondo & Michaël Ovidio & Elie Montchowui, 2024. "Traditional Fish Hole Aquaculture System in Benin: Status, Challenges, and Research Prospects for Sustainable Development in Climate Change Mitigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(23), pages 1-21, November.
    17. Yusuke Satoh & Kei Yoshimura & Yadu Pokhrel & Hyungjun Kim & Hideo Shiogama & Tokuta Yokohata & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshihide Wada & Peter Burek & Edward Byers & Hannes Müller Schmied & Dieter Gerten & S, 2022. "The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Kayenat Kabir & Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Thomas W. Hertel, 2023. "The new Malthusian challenge in the Sahel: prospects for improving food security in Niger," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(2), pages 455-476, April.
    19. Balcha, Yodit & Macleod, Jamie, 2017. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production and Trade in Africa," Conference papers 332921, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Kimberly Stephenson & Byron Wilson & Michael Taylor & Kurt McLaren & Rick van Veen & John Kunna & Jayaka Campbell, 2022. "Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tropical Dry Forest Fauna," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-24, April.
    21. Quezada, George & Bratanova, Alexandra & Boughen, N & Hajkowicz, Stefan, 2016. "Are you ready for change? Farsight for construction: Exploratory scenarios for Queensland’s construction industry to 2036," MPRA Paper 114021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Rodriguez Lopez, Miguel & do Nascimento, Daniele Vieira & Garcia Sanchez, Daniela & Bolivar Lobato, Martha, 2015. "Disabling the Steering Wheel? National and International Actors' Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Latin America," GIGA Working Papers 278, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    23. Cecilia M. V. B. Almeida & Biagio F. Giannetti & Feni Agostinho & Gengyuan Liu & Zhifeng Yang, 2021. "What Are the Stimuli to Change to a Sustainable Post-COVID-19 Society?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-13, November.

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