IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v16y2024i10p4099-d1394104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

State Reliability of Wind Turbines Based on XGBoost–LSTM and Their Application in Northeast China

Author

Listed:
  • Liming Gou

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 102206, China
    Laboratory of Big Data Decision Making for Green Development, Beijing 100192, China)

  • Jian Zhang

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 102206, China
    Beijing International Science and Technology Cooperation Base of Intelligent Decision and Big Data Application, Beijing 100192, China)

  • Lihao Wen

    (School of Electronic and Information Engineering, University of Science and Technology Liaoning, Anshan 110325, China)

  • Yu Fan

    (School of Economics and Management, Beijing Information Science & Technology University, Beijing 102206, China
    Laboratory of Big Data Decision Making for Green Development, Beijing 100192, China)

Abstract

The use of renewable energy sources, such as wind power, has received more attention in China, and wind turbine system reliability has become more important. Based on existing research, this study proposes a state reliability prediction model for wind turbine systems based on XGBoost–LSTM. By considering the dynamic variability of the weight fused by the algorithm, under the irregular fluctuation of the same parameter with time in nonlinear systems, it reduces the algorithm defects in the prediction process. The improved algorithm is validated by arithmetic examples, and the results show that the root mean square error value (hereinafter abbreviated as RMSE) and the mean absolute error value (hereinafter abbreviated as MAPE) of the improved XGBoost–LSTM algorithm are decreased compared with those for the LSTM and XGBoost algorithms, among which the RMSE is reduced by 8.26% and 4.15% and the MAPE is reduced by 24.56% and 27.99%, respectively; its goodness-of-fit R2 value is closer to 1. This indicates that the algorithm proposed in this paper reduces the existing defects present in some current algorithms, and the prediction accuracy is effectively improved, which is of great value in improving the reliability of the system.

Suggested Citation

  • Liming Gou & Jian Zhang & Lihao Wen & Yu Fan, 2024. "State Reliability of Wind Turbines Based on XGBoost–LSTM and Their Application in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-19, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:4099-:d:1394104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/4099/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/16/10/4099/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Devrim, Yilser, 2019. "Theoretical derivation of wind plant power distribution with the consideration of wind turbine reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 192-197.
    2. Dongmei Zhang & Jun Yuan & Jiang Zhu & Qingchang Ji & Xintong Zhang & Hao Liu, 2020. "Fault Diagnosis Strategy for Wind Turbine Generator Based on the Gaussian Process Metamodel," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, January.
    3. Guo, Peng & Infield, David, 2021. "Wind turbine blade icing detection with multi-model collaborative monitoring method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1098-1105.
    4. Wang, Peng & Li, Yanting & Zhang, Guangyao, 2023. "Probabilistic power curve estimation based on meteorological factors and density LSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xinghua Wang & Fucheng Zhong & Yilin Xu & Xixian Liu & Zezhong Li & Jianan Liu & Zhuoli Zhao, 2023. "Extraction and Joint Method of PV–Load Typical Scenes Considering Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-19, September.
    2. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Navarro, Jorge, 2022. "A decision theoretic framework for reliability-based optimal wind turbine selection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    3. Sun, Shilin & Wang, Tianyang & Chu, Fulei, 2022. "In-situ condition monitoring of wind turbine blades: A critical and systematic review of techniques, challenges, and futures," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Adaiton Oliveira-Filho & Ryad Zemouri & Philippe Cambron & Antoine Tahan, 2023. "Early Detection and Diagnosis of Wind Turbine Abnormal Conditions Using an Interpretable Supervised Variational Autoencoder Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Chang Cai & Jicai Guo & Xiaowen Song & Yanfeng Zhang & Jianxin Wu & Shufeng Tang & Yan Jia & Zhitai Xing & Qing’an Li, 2023. "Review of Data-Driven Approaches for Wind Turbine Blade Icing Detection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Usama Aziz & Sylvie Charbonnier & Christophe Berenguer & Alexis Lebranchu & Frederic Prevost, 2022. "A Multi-Turbine Approach for Improving Performance of Wind Turbine Power-Based Fault Detection Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Liu, Hong & Yang, Luoxiao & Zhang, Bingying & Zhang, Zijun, 2023. "A two-channel deep network based model for improving ultra-short-term prediction of wind power via utilizing multi-source data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    8. Wang, Lijin & Fan, Weipeng & Jiang, Guoqian & Xie, Ping, 2023. "An efficient federated transfer learning framework for collaborative monitoring of wind turbines in IoE-enabled wind farms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    9. Kan, Cihangir & Devrim, Yilser & Eryilmaz, Serkan, 2020. "On the theoretical distribution of the wind farm power when there is a correlation between wind speed and wind turbine availability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Hongmei Cui & Zhongyang Li & Bingchuan Sun & Teng Fan & Yonghao Li & Lida Luo & Yong Zhang & Jian Wang, 2022. "A New Ice Quality Prediction Method of Wind Turbine Impeller Based on the Deep Neural Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Wang, Xiaowei & Kang, Qiankun & Gao, Jie & Zhang, Fan & Wang, Xue & Qu, Xinyu & Guo, Liang, 2024. "Distribution network restoration supply method considers 5G base station energy storage participation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    12. Aiman Abbas Mahar & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Bhawani S. Chowdhry & Laveet Kumar & Quynh T. Tran & Gaetano Zizzo, 2023. "Condition Assessment and Analysis of Bearing of Doubly Fed Wind Turbines Using Machine Learning Technique," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Postnikov, Ivan, 2022. "A reliability assessment of the heating from a hybrid energy source based on combined heat and power and wind power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    14. Liu, Zhiyuan & Li, Yan & Sun, Yong & Feng, Fang & Tagawa, Kotaro, 2023. "Preparation of biochar-based photothermal superhydrophobic coating based on corn straw biogas residue and blade anti-icing performance by wind tunnel test," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 618-626.
    15. Mu, Zhongqiu & Guo, Wenfeng & Li, Yan & Tagawa, Kotaro, 2023. "Wind tunnel test of ice accretion on blade airfoil for wind turbine under offshore atmospheric condition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 42-52.
    16. Eryilmaz, Serkan & Bulanık, İrem & Devrim, Yilser, 2021. "Reliability based modeling of hybrid solar/wind power system for long term performance assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    17. Tao, Cheng & Tao, Tao & He, Shukai & Bai, Xinjian & Liu, Yongqian, 2024. "Wind turbine blade icing diagnosis using B-SMOTE-Bi-GRU and RFE combined with icing mechanism," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    18. Hariri, Ali-Mohammad & Hashemi-Dezaki, Hamed & A. Hejazi, Maryam, 2020. "A novel generalized analytical reliability assessment method of smart grids including renewable and non-renewable distributed generations and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:4099-:d:1394104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.